King of Kensington
Senior Member
Anyone find it very hard to see the Liberals collapse to as low as a couple of seats, as some pollsters are sugesting? Hell, even after the NDP's 1995 disaster, they still had 17 seats in a similarly sized legislature.
I think the Liberals still find a way to hit the low teens in seats. The Liberals have a huge 'Get Out the Vote' machine that was instrumental in Trudeau's win. The OLP likely can hold on to 5-7 seats in the GTHA, a few in Ottawa, and one or two in some tight three-way races in university towns.
The NDP base vote is much more geographically concentrated than the Liberal base though. I can't see them getting 17 seats on these numbers.
To me, the safest seat in the province is probably St. Paul's, followed by Ottawa-Vanier. Other likely holds are Ottawa South, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, Toronto Centre. The NDP may hit the "Avenue Rd. wall" in University-Rosedale, allowing the Libs to eke out a victory. The personal popularity of the two Thunder Bay Liberal MPPs may allow them to hold those seats. Kingston is a maybe (though I think it'll go NDP). Maybe a couple of random GTA seats. But I struggle to think of 15 seats the Libs will prevail in.