2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[lead82]

Why not vote for the Green Party? They have a better platform and some new ideas than the NDP.

 

[adma]

I'm a proud progressive/urban *conservative*.

Speaking of your surname (and the environs thereof), you seem the sort whose definition of "progressive" is determined by the will to rebuild thusly.

While maintaining the 60-70 year old status quo would be "regressive".

Even though there've been art/research/etc projects that have proven otherwise.
http://leonadrive.info.yorku.ca/

 

[steveintoronto]

Getting back to long term projection for Ont electric demand:
Chiarelli stated 2013:

Nuclear generation will continue to be the backbone of Ontario’s supply, and we have confirmed our commitment to nuclear with the refurbishment of the Bruce and Darlington sites. Due to the strong supply situation, we have deferred the construction of new nuclear generating units.

Later in the same paper, his dep't states:

To add to your resume, you spend a lot of time insulting people who disagree with you on UT (see below)
You need to chill out

I suggest you read back, Juan, and you attribute quotes out of context and some I didn't make. But that's fine, because Bob has made a point contrary to his persuasion: That the future planning of the needs of Ontario's electric grid and generation (or importation) is trending down, not up.

I've made a detailed and researched post on it, using Chiarelli's own words from a few years back and official QP policy, but I'll just let things simmer here a bit more and let others make the point, completely contrary to their intentions, that the Libs have it right (at least in their re-election platform) on Ontario's future electric needs. Their published research indicates otherwise.

As you were...

I'll post it when JJ returns and some of the other rational posters return.

Edit: Whoops, some of the Chiarelli stuff was left in this posting window. Consider it a sampling...
And as quoted by @adma above:

Bob Burnhamthorpe said: ↑
I'm a proud progressive/urban *conservative*.

Well Bob, last time I voted in this nation, it was for the Conservatives. I don't wave flags though. Anyone so naive as to think there's salvation in joining your favourite team diving off a cliff is to be pitied.

And my father was an elected Conservative, but I digress...I say a pox on all of them. The one who should get elected is the one least bad.

Late Edit to Add:

Back on track, this is the point I was making, and JJ disagreeing with, albeit in a very rational and presented way. And then suddenly the conversation veered off course as per "subsidies" and "Tesla".

Whatever, I was projecting what is an accepted given in technical and informed circles:

Impacts of electric vehicle chargers on the power grid
Abstract:
While the number of internal combustion vehicles is stagnating, and is even expected to decrease in a few decades, the amount of electric vehicles is predicted to increase. Most of the electric cars are designed for daily urban use, thus in the near future, bigger cities might have some ten percentage of electric cars running on their streets during the day. And these vehicles need to be recharged in the evening or during night, so the electric vehicles, including the high performance electric cars, will interact with the power grid in this period. The impact of the charging process is predicted to be apparent on the distribution system, mostly on the low voltage grid, by influencing the network voltage profiles and the loading of the grid elements. As a practical issue we have chosen parts of the LV grid of Budapest, a city with almost two million inhabitants. If 20% of the cars is electric powered, then every fifth household has a car that has to be charged. In this paper we present the results of simulations conducted on the aforementioned grids with chargers placed at different places, using the DIgSILENT Power Factory software package. To get a better view of how electric cars' charging would affect the LV grid, we have run several load flow simulations on a large number of power grids. By statistically analyzing the obtained results, an overall picture can be acquired about the possible issues that electric car charging might have on the electric network of a large city.
[...]

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7180811/

If this is a pre-eminent issue in Hungary, then one assumes it will be here too...what I fail to see from *any* Ontario party at this time is *integrating the load* in a usable and stabilizing way in what is termed "ballasting" by using supply during hours of least demand.

 

[kEiThZ]

Take the ridiculous subsidies (both from the companies and the consumer) away, and this happens:

1. Very few are sold (see: Hong Kong ... usually a leader in these things).

Also, the average person sees a story from the fawning MSM how Tesla is the most valuable car company in the U.S., and they go, "HOW?"

Tesla has never made a profit.

To be fair. Tesla has made profits per vehicle sold (gross margin). They haven't made net profits because they are still growing the company. As a former Tesla investor (got in when $TSLA was in the 20-30s and sold out in the low $200s to pay for my wedding), I fully agree the company is ridiculously overvalued. But market sentiments are what they are and mo-mos are all the rage these days.

All that said, electrification is now an established trend. And what's insane to me as a political centrist is the fact that so-called conservatives are ignoring this while car companies are pushing ahead. That's leading to ridiculous policy gaps like the shit-show that is charging in condos for example.

I am in the US on a military education exchange at the moment working on a double masters (with one track focused on alternative energy, fuels, efficiency, etc.). Setting aside politics and Trump, I have been utterly blown away the work done by the US military on alternative energy. Quite simply they view climate change as the largest long term strategic threat. And they view conventional fuels as a full spectrum threat. To that end, every service is working on electrification across various spectrums. To them conventional fuels entail a supply line that is vulnerable to attack. Electrification makes a force more independently deployable. Something they learned from watching how effective nuclear powered aircraft carriers and submarines were over the years.

Examples: solar panels on forward operating bases, electrified special forces vehicles that are both silent and can be charged off said solar panels, every base now having a solar or wind farm to improve redundancy over the grid connection, etc.

Despite our more left-leaning politicians talking about alternative energy, I am actually quite frustrated that they seem to be ignorant to good policy and how to effect good outcomes. Mandating that garages in homes and parking spots in condos all be pre-wired with an appropriate level of service and voltage for at least Level 2 charging, would do a hell of a lot more for EVs than the subsidies they hand out ever could. Sadly, we're stuck in the middle, with left-leaning politicians who've never met a subsidy they didn't like and right-leaning politicians who think any such regulation is terrible (and who often seem to think science and technological trends (like electrification) are fads).

The Conservatives have an opportunity here to seize the "green" mantle by pushing for EVs in a way that's more effective than the Liberals. Not to mention offering a serious transit plan, vision for HSR to be built with the feds, etc. Somehow, we all know they can't be bothered. The motto of the Ontario PCs seems to be, "You should vote for us because the other guy screwed up."

 

[Jasmine18]

I think the liberals are pretty much done outside of the GTA

 

[kEiThZ]

I think the liberals are pretty much done outside of the GTA

This has been true for a long time. I would add cities in general. They do well in Ottawa too. Sprinkle in seats from KWC and London.

But this is also the problem for Conservatives. And for a voter like me, drives us nuts. 80% urban province. And the Tories always seem to cater to a rural base. They deserve to lose for idiocy with that.

They don't seem to get that you can be an urbane conservative for some reason. Instead, they think the red necks should dictate conservativism. So you get idiocy like losing seats in Ottawa because Hudak didn't want to commit to Phase 2 of their LRT.

Transit for example is an easy win for them too. They could promise to finish GO RER by the end of their next term and win seats in the 905. They announce that DRL will start construction by the end of their first term, they might even win seats in downtown Toronto.

But I expect will see them announce scaling back on the Liberal transit expansion program and no bold initiatives.

 

[Cobra]

This has been true for a long time. I would add cities in general. They do well in Ottawa too. Sprinkle in seats from KWC and London.

But this is also the problem for Conservatives. And for a voter like me, drives us nuts. 80% urban province. And the Tories always seem to cater to a rural base. They deserve to lose for idiocy with that.

They don't seem to get that you can be an urbane conservative for some reason. Instead, they think the red necks should dictate conservativism. So you get idiocy like losing seats in Ottawa because Hudak didn't want to commit to Phase 2 of their LRT.

Transit for example is an easy win for them too. They could promise to finish GO RER by the end of their next term and win seats in the 905. They announce that DRL will start construction by the end of their first term, they might even win seats in downtown Toronto.

But I expect will see them announce scaling back on the Liberal transit expansion program and no bold initiatives.

Why would they when polls tells them otherwise?

Bad news keeps coming for Kathleen Wynne: Hepburn
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/com...-keeps-coming-for-kathleen-wynne-hepburn.html

• 49 per cent of voters in the city of Toronto support the Tories, 31 per cent the Liberals and 15 per cent the NDP.
  
• Even in the downtown core the Conservatives led the Liberals by a 43-37 margin.

But I'm with you, instead of doubling down and commit to urban projects such a transit to consolidate their lead, they will use polls as this to justify announcing cuts in transit and then the next election will be much closer than people will realize

 

[kicked it in the sun]

if the conservatives win, the number one thing they should do is bring back the full power of the OMB.

 

[narduch]

Wasn't the OMB a Liberal creation?

The Conservatives would be more likely to scrap it altogether.

 

[steveintoronto]

Wasn't the OMB a Liberal creation?

The Conservatives would be more likely to scrap it altogether.

Care to dig to find who held the majority in the legislature at that time?

https://archive.org/stream/statutesofprovin1906onta#page/312/mode/2up

And lo and behold!
[...]The Ontario general election, 1908 was the 12th general election held in the Province of Ontario, Canada. It was held on June 8, 1908, to elect the 106 Members of the 12th Legislative Assembly of Ontario ("MLAs").

The Ontario Conservative Party, led by Sir James P. Whitney, was elected for a second term in government, increasing its majority in the Legislature significantly. [...]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_1908

And prior to that?
[...]
The Ontario general election, 1905 was the 11th general election held in the Province of Ontario, Canada. It was held on January 25, 1905, to elect the 98 Members of the 11th Legislative Assembly of Ontario ("MLAs").

The Ontario Conservative Party, led by Sir James P. Whitney, defeated the Ontario Liberal Party, led by Sir George William Ross, bringing to an end the control of the government that the Liberal Party had exercised power for the previous 34 years.
[...]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_1905

The OMB (in its original form) was wholly a Conservative Party creation. By acquiescence, all three parties are responsible for where and what it is now. At least the Libs, even if for reactionary reasons, have addressed the need for reform.

 

[adma]

The only way I can see the PCs overtaking the Libs downtown is if condoland and YIMBY-millennials shift to them en masse--and maybe if Patrick Brown presents himself as palatable enough for a David Crombie endorsement...

 

[Hopkins123]

I can't bring myself to vote Liberal and don't trust Patrick Brown.

This is the dilemma I witness every election cycle it seems. Voters are convinced the Conservatives are somehow going to bring the Province into the Dark Ages with no substantive proof and ergo just allow the Liberals (whom always manages to get their base to turnout) to skate by on their own incompetence time and again.

 

[Hopkins123]

Why would they when polls tells them otherwise?

Bad news keeps coming for Kathleen Wynne: Hepburn
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/com...-keeps-coming-for-kathleen-wynne-hepburn.html

• 49 per cent of voters in the city of Toronto support the Tories, 31 per cent the Liberals and 15 per cent the NDP.
  
• Even in the downtown core the Conservatives led the Liberals by a 43-37 margin.

But I'm with you, instead of doubling down and commit to urban projects such a transit to consolidate their lead, they will use polls as this to justify announcing cuts in transit and then the next election will be much closer than people will realize

I'll believe it when I see it. My faith in people actually following through on changing the course from the status quo is pretty low.

It would be good if the Tories form the next government to have some representation from within the 416 though.

 

[pman]

This is the dilemma I witness every election cycle it seems. Voters are convinced the Conservatives are somehow going to bring the Province into the Dark Ages with no substantive proof and ergo just allow the Liberals (whom always manages to get their base to turnout) to skate by on their own incompetence time and again.

Certainly Toronto voters have some reason to believe the provincial PC Party will be harmful to them. The PC's anti-Toronto record includes:

Cancellation of the Eglinton Subway (for which tunneling had started)
Forcing amalgamation on us in the face of pretty overwhelming opposition (no amalgamation for Conservative-voting Kitchener Waterloo, though)
Market value assessment - fundamentally a wealth tax on higher-valued Toronto real estate for the portion of our property taxes used kicked to the Province for education funding

 

[ShonTron]

Certainly Toronto voters have some reason to believe the provincial PC Party will be harmful to them. The PC's anti-Toronto record includes:

Cancellation of the Eglinton Subway (for which tunneling had started)
Forcing amalgamation on us in the face of pretty overwhelming opposition (no amalgamation for Conservative-voting Kitchener Waterloo, though)
Market value assessment - fundamentally a wealth tax on higher-valued Toronto real estate for the portion of our property taxes used kicked to the Province for education funding

And having plenty of Toronto representation in the first Harris government (1995-1999) didn't help. The OPCs even took Toronto Centre-Rosedale that term (Al Leach).