2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[jje1000]

I doubt the SoCons have much of a choice, unless there's some Tea Party-level uprising.

It's either all-in with the Conservatives, or four more years of Wynne.

 

[ttk77]

Depends how unhappy they are with Patrick Brown. If they hate him enough them may vote Trillium or stay at home in an attempt to get him to lose so they can force another leadership contest. They could very well see it as payback for using them to get the PC leadership and then subsequently abandoning them.

 

[OneCity]

I doubt the SoCons have much of a choice, unless there's some Tea Party-level uprising.

It's either all-in with the Conservatives, or four more years of Wynne.

Ya. I highly doubt there is that much angst in the Party. They all know they got their butts whooped last election so drastic changes was coming

 

[Bob Burnhamthorpe]

I doubt the SoCons have much of a choice, unless there's some Tea Party-level uprising.

It's either all-in with the Conservatives, or four more years of Wynne.

So true.

With a majority government well within sight, they'd be foolish to seriously rock the boat.

A few have, but it's all inside baseball, and not gonna matter much next year.

 

[jje1000]

Ominous predictions?

Seattle’s Minimum Wage Hike May Have Gone Too Far

In January 2016, Seattle’s minimum wage jumped from $11 an hour to $13 for large employers, the second big increase in less than a year. New research released Monday by a team of economists at the University of Washington suggests the wage hike may have come at a significant cost: The increase led to steep declines in employment for low-wage workers, and a drop in hours for those who kept their jobs. Crucially, the negative impact of lost jobs and hours more than offset the benefits of higher wages — on average, low-wage workers earned $125 per month less because of the higher wage, a small but significant decline.

The group’s first major report, released last year, looked at the first big increase under the law, in April 2015, in which the minimum wage went from $9.47 to $11 for large employers. The report found relatively little effect, for good or ill: The policy led to some lost jobs and hours, the report concluded, but those were more or less offset by the increased income enjoyed by workers. For workers who kept their jobs, the higher wage was a clear benefit; for low-wage workers as a whole, the impact was minimal. One reason for the muted impact: In high-cost Seattle, not many workers earned less than $11 an hour even before the law took effect.

Monday’s report looks at the impact of the second wage increase under the law: the January 2016 hike to $13 an hour for large employers. This time, the findings look very different: Compared to a counterfactual in which Seattle didn’t raise its minimum wage, the number of hours worked by low-wage workers (those earning less than $19 an hour) fell by 9.4 percent over the first nine months of 2016, and the number of low-wage jobs fell by 6.8 percent. Cumulatively, those add up to the losses of 5,000 jobs and 3.5 million hours of work. The average low-wage employee, they found, saw his or her monthly paycheck shrink by $125, or 6.6 percent.

The Berkeley study, however, looked exclusively at the restaurant industry. That has been a common practice in minimum-wage research, because the industry is one of the largest employers of low-wage workers. But the University of Washington study suggests a possible flaw in that approach: That research, too, found essentially no job losses in the restaurant sector as a result of the city’s minimum wage hike. That suggests that studies that focused on the restaurant industry might have missed larger effects in other sectors. (Michael Reich, one of the authors of the Berkeley study, said he was confident in his findings. Bernstein said focusing on restaurants, especially fast food, was a widely accepted approach that was well grounded in economic theory.)

Some people almost certainly benefited from the higher wage. David Rolf, president of SEIU 775, a union representing home care and nursing home workers in Washington state, said many of his members have seen clear gains since the law took effect.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/seattles-minimum-wage-hike-may-have-gone-too-far/

 

[BurlOak]

Ominous predictions?

If you look at the dates, the Wage increase occured in January 2016, and it took about 16 months to be proven a disaster.

If we add 16 months to now, that takes us past the next election. For this government, that is all that matters.

 

[Hopkins123]

If you look at the dates, the Wage increase occured in January 2016, and it took about 16 months to be proven a disaster.

If we add 16 months to now, that takes us past the next election. For this government, that is all that matters.

I feel as though if your employer likes your job performance enough, they'll be willing to pay you that higher rate and not cut your hours. We're only talking a $3.60 increase after all. How is Alberta managing with their increase? More salient to know local stats than international ones. It's barbaric to even fathom that a majority of jobs aren't paying above minimum wage already.

 

[Hopkins123]

I just saw an ad for the PC's with Patrick Brown. It basically said that everyone is welcome and "it doesn't matter" who you are. That is quite the move to the centre and even the left.

If Brown stuck to being inclusive and financially responsible, I would give the PC's a chance. I just wonder what SoCon MPP's like Monte McNaughton think about this new progressive leaning vision, though they probably don't have a choice in the matter.

We all just lived through 10 years of Stephen Harper correct? Where was this seismic shift of moving the country to the Right that never materialized that the media wanted so badly for us to believe was happening?

Brown, like Harper, will likely pander to the right to secure their votes in a few regards (think: the sex-ed curriculum issue) but will generally appeal to and govern from the center were he to become the next Premier. Following Harper's tutelage, he'll try to create a big blue tent comprising everyone from Blue Liberals, Red Tories, Greens, Libertarians, SoCons/Evangelicals, Tea Partiers and so on.

 

[BurlOak]

We all just lived through 10 years of Stephen Harper correct? Where was this seismic shift of moving the country to the Right that never materialized that the media wanted so badly for us to believe was happening?.

What did happen is that Harper moved to the centre.
The liberals/media painted him as right wing.
This allowed the Liberals to move the goal posts to the left and call it the new centre.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

We all just lived through 10 years of Stephen Harper correct? Where was this seismic shift of moving the country to the Right that never materialized that the media wanted so badly for us to believe was happening?

Brown, like Harper, will likely pander to the right to secure their votes in a few regards (think: the sex-ed curriculum issue) but will generally appeal to and govern from the center were he to become the next Premier. Following Harper's tutelage, he'll try to create a big blue tent comprising everyone from Blue Liberals, Red Tories, Greens, Libertarians, SoCons/Evangelicals, Tea Partiers and so on.

Is he a Red Tory, or a Harris Tory? He hasn't really informed anyone substantively as to where he stand. Also, he appears to have difficulties governing the more "radical" aspects of his party - he may find his hands tied if he couldn't whip.

AoD

 

[OneCity]

Is he a Red Tory, or a Harris Tory? He hasn't really informed anyone substantively as to where he stand. Also, he appears to have difficulties governing the more "radical" aspects of his party - he may find his hands tied if he couldn't whip.

AoD

Surely there is much still unknown, but Brown will be nothing like a Harris Tory. My take is the Party is trying to portray an image which is much more more progressive in opening up the party to be less exclusive, while keeping the mandate of being optically firm tax and economic "responsibility", but un-Harris like they will be keeping infrastructure spending as a priority. Basically Ford with a haircut, treadmill, and a calmer demeanour.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Surely there is much still unknown, but Brown will be nothing like a Harris Tory. My take is the Party is trying to portray an image which is much more more progressive in opening up the party to be less exclusive, while keeping the mandate of being optically firm tax and economic "responsibility", but un-Harris like they will be keeping infrastructure spending as a priority. Basically Ford with a haircut, treadmill, and a calmer demeanour.

That's an assumption - and given the amount of unknowns, I'd rather watch than buying into posturing on his part.

AoD

 

[OneCity]

That's an assumption - and given the amount of unknowns, I'd rather watch than buying into posturing on his part.

AoD

Im in the same boat, lots of time to see how things develop here and am very open to the Liberals promising the moon to win me over as we inch closer. But its nice to see the signs of some progressive change from the Conservatives as the Liberals has just ran too far without a leash and need to be reigned in at some point.

And its also in Torontos best interest to kick them to the curb for a term if they dont amp up their spending in Toronto. I think Toronto voters make its very easy for the Liberals to spend greater efforts wooing other areas of the Province.

 

[steveintoronto]

Basically Ford with a haircut, treadmill, and a calmer demeanour.

Ford neutered. He was biting and spraying, doubtless...it's questionable whether Patrick could be that real to begin with.

"It's Patrick, he took out life insurance"

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Ominous predictions?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/seattles-minimum-wage-hike-may-have-gone-too-far/

It might be difficult to rationalize coming from the left, but minimum wage increases are a race to the bottom.

Progressive societies like the Scandinavian countries and Switzerland have eliminated the minimum wage.

(Not claiming that we should eliminate it in Ontario, just pointing out that it is a lot more complicated a question then higher=better/more progressive)