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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

The biggest barrier for the NDP forming government are the GTA burbs: notably, Mississauga, Halton, York Region and Durham (except Oshawa).

In 1990, these areas made up a much smaller percentage of the seat count. Many electoral riding distributions later, these regions have gained massive influence.
 
Green Party Platform is out:

https://gpo.ca/our-platform/

Key planks:

1. Jettison the Liberal Hydro Plan, buy cheaper hydro from Manitoba and Quebec
2. Universal Basic Income, amount aligned w/Low-Income Cutoff. Somewhere near $1,500 per month.
3. Raise water-taking fees substantially, use the money to pay farmers to protect water, air (naturalized buffers, woodlots) on their farms; expand greenbelt
4. Add mental healthcare to OHIP
5. Lower payroll taxes for small business (increase exemption for the Employer Health Tax to $1,000,000
6. Cancel virtually all corporate welfare, redirect some money to 'clean tech' the balance to energy efficiency programs and the payroll tax reduction.
7. Hike Corporate Taxes on large corporations to 13% (same as NDP); and raise tax for the highest income earners by 1%
8. Vastly expand/improve public transit, cover the cost by parking levies and tolling 400-series highways.
9. Make housing more affordable by mandating 20% affordable housing in all new development, taxing speculation heavily, and fully legalizing laneway housing, secondary suites and small homes.

*note that while the Green Platform is broken into 9 planks, mine list does not precisely mirror theirs, instead reflecting what I saw as the take home points, in no particular order.
 
The biggest barrier for the NDP forming government are the GTA burbs: notably, Mississauga, Halton, York Region and Durham (except Oshawa).

In 1990, these areas made up a much smaller percentage of the seat count. Many electoral riding distributions later, these regions have gained massive influence.

As of today they NDP doesn't even have a candidate in my riding (Vaughan-Woodbridge).
 
Honestly, the Liberals don't get to critique anyone else's math. They have made too many spending promises to be realistic. And we already know they are lying about the current state of the books.

The platforms of all 3 parties should be taken with an enormous grain of salt.

Vote for the party that aligns with your views and is overall making promises you like. None of them are going to keep all these promises. Its just not possible.

NDP have responded to the allegation and essentially said its 'hooey'.

They note that the Liberal spending not accounted for includes alternative versions of NDP promises for seniors and dental that handled differently and funded elsewhere in the NDP platform.

Not sure the answered item for item, but the gist is inline w/my expectations that this is more Liberal hyperbole than anything.
 
The biggest barrier for the NDP forming government are the GTA burbs: notably, Mississauga, Halton, York Region and Durham (except Oshawa).

In 1990, these areas made up a much smaller percentage of the seat count. Many electoral riding distributions later, these regions have gained massive influence.

That is very true, and important. And the NDP didn't even win a single seat in Peel Region in 1990 (Jagmeet Singh was the first NDP MPP from Peel).

This time Brampton plays a key role in a path to victory for the NDP and they are putting a lot of resources there.
 
1. Jettison the Liberal Hydro Plan, buy cheaper hydro from Manitoba and Quebec

Dumbest thing I've read so far. You can't jettison power purchasing agreements. Manitoba and Quebec don't have year round surplus that'll meet Ontario's needs... Seriously, Green Party. You deserve to be at the bottom.
 
Dumbest thing I've read so far. You can't jettison power purchasing agreements. Manitoba and Quebec don't have year round surplus that'll meet Ontario's needs... Seriously, Green Party. You deserve to be at the bottom.

I don't think we have the transmission capacity for Manitoba either.

AoD
 
Dumbest thing I've read so far. You can't jettison power purchasing agreements. Manitoba and Quebec don't have year round surplus that'll meet Ontario's needs... Seriously, Green Party. You deserve to be at the bottom.

Ummm, according to Hydro Quebec they have surplus capacity as far as the eye can see and they deem Ontario a potential export market, along with New Brunswick and several U.S. States.


https://globalnews.ca/news/3989507/...-will-keep-local-power-rates-below-inflation/

Note here that they are adding this year and next over 5,000 MW of capacity or enough to meet 20% of Ontario's peak demand.

http://www.hydroquebec.com/sustaina...nment/power-generation-purchases-exports.html

The surplus is also shown in this chart:

bilan-energie-2018-2026.png

As for Manitoba Hydro, it currently has surplus power as well, has interchange capacity of around 500MW w/Ontario.

This, however is very expandable.

In summary the proposal is not an unreasonable one.

****

Let me add, that you clearly haven't done research on this issue, nor read the Green Party platform.

I have increasingly expressed my frustration at multiple posters here slagging different parties and/or ideas without having bothered to look into either first.

Kindly don't do that.
 
As for Manitoba Hydro, it currently has surplus power as well, has interchange capacity of around 500MW w/Ontario.

This, however is very expandable.

Expansion of grid capacity is quite expensive and something like this really should be part of a national energy policy - but of course national anything is something we have stopped doing since the 70s.

AoD
 
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If this is a total oversight by the NDP, then that is a very real problem.
In all fairness to the Dippers, their claims are not much more abstract than the other two. But all these claims are based on wild assumptions.

I think this whole election is a great opportunity to get the kids to practice discovery math on.
The only way to make any sense of any of the claims is for an independent audit, and three at that, as audits rarely align exactly either.
Horwath said the NDP plan was based on new spending programs the Liberals promised in their 2018 budget — substituted with the party’s campaign pledges.
WTF? The very pledges Horwath herself has pilloried!

Ummm, according to Hydro Quebec they have surplus capacity as far as the eye can see and they deem Ontario a potential export market, along with New Brunswick and several U.S. States.
This is partially true. Ontario is already planning for a more robust corridor capacity, and has already signed deals:
Hydro deal with Quebec to save Ontario electricity grid $70M
7-year agreement will help Ontario move away from natural gas, reduce greenhouse gases, sources says
Keith Leslie · The Canadian Press · Posted: Oct 21, 2016 5:50 AM ET | Last Updated: October 21, 2016
[...]
However, the provinces say the existing transmission lines can support their new power agreement.

"The reality seems to be the transmission lines can handle a fair chunk of power and we should be looking at this as an option to deal with high hydro rates," said Tabuns.

Green Party of Ontario Leader Mike Schreiner called the Quebec deal a step in the right direction, but said the province should not extend the life of the Pickering nuclear station or rebuild the reactors at the Darlington station.

"The Liberals made the right decision to import low cost water power from Quebec," Schreiner said in a release. "Now they need to save billions by closing Pickering on schedule and cancelling the Darlington rebuild."

The new agreement will also allow Ontario to keep up to 500 gigawatt hours of power behind Quebec's dams in what is called a "pump storage" system, which will allow the province to reduce its surplus generation.
[...]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/quebec-ontario-hydro-1.3815203

As to "buzz" as expounded selectively by at least one poster:
upload_2018-5-14_15-28-21.png

Not that the polls are in any way accurate, contrary to claims, but they are indicative used in an appropriate context, and the 'buzz' is that the only party showing a dip in this poll is the NDP. And the Libs are in second place again.

But it's all transitory..."buzz" or otherwise.
 

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This is partially true. Ontario is already planning for a more robust corridor capacity, and has already signed deals: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/quebec-ontario-hydro-1.3815203
Best way to reduce hydro costs is to take us backwards to 2002, minus coal, plus the few good ideas since then. Scrap the wind farms and their overpriced guaranteed rates, reinstate the homeowner and business Feed in Tariff program where electricity users can generate their own power and sell back what they don't need, fix/invest in our nuclear plants (and pay for that out of infrastructure and/or general revenue, not hydro bills).

You may disagree with the above, but how can anyone justify the below increase in hydro rates since 2002?! Especially since demand for hydro has dropped significantly since 2008, meaning the price is supposed to drop in times of surplus, not increase dramatically.

http://www.ontario-hydro.com/historical-rpp-rates

$graph
 
Green Party Platform is out:

https://gpo.ca/our-platform/

Key planks:


4. Add mental healthcare to OHIP

This alone, honestly.

What a beautifully refreshing position. It's looooong past time we take mental health seriously.

(I know, you might be thinking I'm just saying that because I'm a homer....but my federal and provincial memberships in the party lapsed two years ago and I no longer volunteer for the party nor donate to the party, so not quite).
 
Scrap the wind farms and their overpriced guaranteed rates,
Ontario has already reduced the rates. And not only that, things are not that simple. Doug Ford on steroids...
April 24, 2017
Various pundits assert that the major reason for higher electricity bills in Ontario is the addition of renewable energy to the province’s electricity mix. This is a myth.

At the Canadian Wind Energy Association, we’ve discussed the real reasons for Ontario’s bill increases, both in blogs and in studies on our website. Recently, other electricity sector commentators such as University of Waterloo’s Jatin Nathwani and Environmental Defence’s Keith Brooks have come forward to present the facts.

According to a January 2017 study by Environmental Defence, the average Ontario household pays about $11 per month for wind power – about six per cent of their electricity bill. The biggest components of the bill are delivery (31 per cent), nuclear-generated electricity (24 per cent), HST (12 per cent), natural gas generation (8 per cent), and hydro-electric power (7 per cent).

It’s true that Ontario’s wind energy industry was initially developed with contracts paying above average generation costs. It’s equally true, however, that wind energy costs have declined to the point where new wind energy is one of the most economical forms of energy available to Ontario today.

So why have electricity bills risen? Some major reasons include:

  • Ontario has made large investments in many different types of generation, transmission and distribution to increase reliability – Professor Nathwani calculates the investment at $50 billion over the past decade. This helped Ontario to shut down its coal-fired generating stations.
  • Ontario has a power surplus following the recession, changes to the economy including the loss of some manufacturing output, and conservation measures which have decreased demand; but even though Ontario electricity demand has fallen by about 12 per cent between 2005 and 2016, electricity system costs (including for electricity efficiency programs) still must be paid by ratepayers.
  • The 10 per cent subsidy on electricity bills was removed in 2016.
So bills have risen, but as Professor Nathwani says, the power system has also greatly improved. We no longer worry about brownouts, even on the hottest days. We have a much cleaner electricity system, with much better air quality and an 80 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases. Ontario is also in a good position to use its low-carbon surplus electricity capacity to de-carbonize other segments of its economy, such as transportation and buildings. Wind energy has contributed to each of these positive outcomes.

Plus, as Keith Brooks notes, Ontario now has a growing clean-tech wind energy sector that benefits its economy and employment while also benefitting rural landowners and communities.

But let’s get back to price. Electricity generation in Ontario in 2016 averaged 11.14 cents per kilowatt hour. The most recent procurement of wind energy resulted in an average price of 8.45 cents with one project coming in at 6.45 cents. Hydro-electric power is clean and low cost, but there are few economic sites left to develop. Power from a refurbished Darlington Nuclear station will reportedly increase from 5.9 cents in 2016 to 16.8 cents by 2026. Meanwhile, the cost of electricity from natural gas is also poised to increase significantly over time. For example, the commodity price of natural gas increased from 11.6 cents per cubic metre in October 2016 to 16.0 cents in January 2017 as the province levied its initial carbon price on gas.

Recently, Ontario announced a plan to lower electricity bills. Wind energy is a relatively small contributor to current bills. More importantly, as wind energy costs continue to fall, non-emitting wind power will be the best option going forward for keeping electricity affordable in Ontario.

Brandy Giannetta
Ontario Regional Director at the Canadian Wind Energy Association
https://canwea.ca/blog/2017/04/24/wind-energy-ontarios-electricity-prices-lets-destroy-myth/
 
Best way to reduce hydro costs is to take us backwards to 2002, minus coal, plus the few good ideas since then. Scrap the wind farms and their overpriced guaranteed rates, reinstate the homeowner and business Feed in Tariff program where electricity users can generate their own power and sell back what they don't need, fix/invest in our nuclear plants (and pay for that out of infrastructure and/or general revenue, not hydro bills).

You may disagree with the above, but how can anyone justify the below increase in hydro rates since 2002?! Especially since demand for hydro has dropped significantly since 2008, meaning the price is supposed to drop in times of surplus, not increase dramatically.

http://www.ontario-hydro.com/historical-rpp-rates

$graph

Yes, the rates are too high, though they were too low at the beginning of that graph , relative to required investments.

Yes, the Libs have made a hash of this file, though they weren't the first to do so, but that's no defense.

No to investing more in nukes. Not a dogmatic position, a practical one. When you consider the capital costs of construction (new and refurbishing) with the operating, they are Ontario's most expensive source of power of the major streams (hydro, nat. gas, nuclear AND wind). That's before factoring in permanent disposal, and not giving any weight to liability whatsoever.

Replacing wind w/additional supply from Quebec and Manitoba first, then conservation, then energy storage that would allow us to bank surpluses of energy for later use would be a far preferable route.

Pickering should be mothballed post-haste and Darlington by 2028. Bruce has a bit more life in it, but should be out of service by the mid 2030s.

That would allow more cost-effective power; in the fullness of time, ever cheaper renewables in conjunction w/storage should allow a shift way from nat. gas, particularly the on-call variety as opposed to base load.
 
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Further to above^

Ontario to cut rates paid for wind, solar power
The Canadian Press · Posted: Mar 22, 2012 2:24 PM ET | Last Updated: March 22, 2012
[...]
The Progressive Conservatives said the lucrative premiums paid for wind and solar power are making electricity unaffordable for families and driving companies out of Ontario, and called on the Liberals to cancel the feed-in-tariff program immediately.

"It would stop the high subsidies that have caused energy bills to skyrocket," said Opposition energy critic Vic Fedeli.

"We believe that the FIT has caused huge damage to Ontario businesses and it has become a jobs killer."

The Liberals pointed out Fedeli was mayor of North Bay in 2007 when the council voted to install solar panels on the roof of city hall, accusing the rookie Tory member of hypocrisy.

The New Democrats say if the price of renewables is coming down the province should scrap its plans to spend at least $33 billion refurbishing nuclear plants and building two new reactors and focus more on green energy.

"Why isn't he taking the next logical step, moving away from nuclear and committing to a renewable future for Ontario," asked NDP energy critic Peter Tabuns.
[...]
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-to-cut-rates-paid-for-wind-solar-power-1.1157717

A day after Global News released documents alleging Ontario Power Generation pursued a “deliberate management strategy” to get artificially low estimates at the massive $12.8 billion Darlington nuclear refurbishment, Ontario’s official opposition says it will ask the province’s Auditor General to investigate.
By Brian Hill Associate Producer Global News

WATCH: Opposition to ask Auditor to examine cost overruns of projects in massive Darlington Nuclear refurbishment

“It’s alarming to know that this cost is spinning out of control, or at least it was spinning out of control,” said Todd Smith, the PC energy critic and MPP for Prince Edward-Hastings. “That’s why we’re going to be contacting the Auditor General to look into some of the mistakes that were made, or at least the mismanagement by the early management team that was in charge of the refurbishment.”

READ MORE: Contractors told to ignore risks, lower cost estimates at Darlington nuclear plant, auditors say

Smith says if the allegations contained in the May 2014 audit report by Burns & McDonnell-Modus are true, OPG should bear the costs of these problems – not Ontario ratepayers.

“Every time one of these projects goes over budget by hundreds of millions dollars or billions of dollars it casts a big shadow over the nuclear industry,” Smith said. “Ultimately, if this project goes way over budget and it’s because of malfeasance at OPG, than it should be OPG that bears the cost of these overruns, not electricity customers in Ontario.”

WATCH: Key project at Darlington nuclear plant faces millions in cost overruns, delayed

TOR_Jarvis_tnb_1.jpg

The Global News investigation also uncovered significant cost and schedule overruns at one of the refurbishment’s key early projects – the Heavy Water Storage and Drum Handling Facility.

Initially budgeted at $110 million, OPG says the project could cost half a billion dollars when finally complete.

“The price tag has gone up since the original estimate, it’s [now] at $381 million,” said Jeff Lyash, CEO of Ontario Power Generation. “Given the scope we now realize, it will be somewhat more than that – likely in the order of 20 per cent to 30 per cent more.”

The May 2014 report did say OPG has taken “aggressive action to correct as many of the major issues as possible,” with the early projects, but provided no guarantee the heavy water facility could be delivered as planned.

Lyash, meanwhile, says the refurbishment as a whole is on time and within budget. He says some projects have been successful and gone very well, while others have experienced challenges.

READ MORE: Key project at Darlington nuclear facility hundreds of millions over budget, delayed

“When OPG prepared the overall $12.8 billion [estimate] for Darlington Refurbishment in November 2015, all 500 projects, including the [heavy water storage] were assessed for project risks,” said Neal Kelly, a spokesperson for OPG.

WATCH: OPG insists Darlington refurbishment within budget, despite cost overruns at storage facility

Jeff_Lyash_thumbnail.jpg


Meanwhile, Andrea Horwath, Leader of Ontario’s NDP, says the government needs to keep a closer eye on the project.

“It’s pretty disturbing information that you uncovered,” Horwath said.

She says Ontario’s electricity system is already a mess and that Ontarians simply cannot afford to pay for more mistakes.

“The message that the government sends to these organizations should be one of transparency, accountability and clarity,” Horwath said. “The people of the province deserve to have the straight goods – they deserve to have the facts.”

Ontario’s energy minister responds
Global News requested an interview with Ontario’s energy minister, Glenn Thibeault, to respond to the allegations contained within the May 2014 Burns & McDonnell-Modus audit report, but the request was declined.

Instead, Thibeault provided a written response.

“We have absolute confidence in OPG’s leadership team, and its ability to successfully complete the Darlington refurbishment project,” said Thibeault. “The current status of the project is on time, and on budget.”

In his response, Thibeault said OPG has a “carefully developed business plan to guide the complex refurbishment.” He said the company has a “solid project management track record” and cited three recent projects OPG has delivered under budget.

WATCH: Consumer policy group says audit reports ‘mind-blowing’

Brady_Yauch.jpg


The total cost savings of the three projects Thibeault mentioned was $24.3 million – equivalent to roughly nine per cent of current cost overruns on the heavy water storage facility.

“Senior management and staff at OPG are subject to the strictest possible oversight to ensure safety, reliable supply and value for ratepayers,” Thibeault said. “I also continue to have regular update meetings with OPG along with Ministry of Energy officials to ensure the ongoing success of the project.”

Thibeault says the Darlington refurbishment will contribute $90 billion to Ontario’s GDP, creating an average of 14,200 jobs annually.

READ MORE: Ontario to squeeze more life out of out of Pickering, spend $12.8 billion on Darlington

While Smith agrees nuclear is vital to Ontario’s economy – saying the PCs support the refurbishment and are confident in current management at OPG – he says the type of behaviour described in the audits should make Ontarians outraged.

“I think what really upsets people is the fact that the old management team received bonuses as they were heading out the door, Smith said. “Clearly those bonuses weren’t warranted when you see an audit like the one that you published.”

Contact Brian Hill – brian.hill@globalnews.ca
https://globalnews.ca/news/3800298/ontario-pcs-auditor-general-investigate-darlington-opg/
 
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