2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[JWBF]

This election is gonna get nasty, both sides will be just raw emotion and lies.

And that's different from any other election?

 

[Jasmine18]

And that's different from any other election?

I think the level of it will likely be atypical for Canadian elections...

Ford is going to run a populist campaign and The Liberals think they will lose and have nothing to lose with engaging in any tactic.

3-4 weeks ago the Liberals were going to run on the budget but the budget clearly did not connect and now they are going full negative.

 

[jje1000]

Pre-election chickens coming home to roost?

Moody’s sounds ratings warning shot over Ontario budget

A major debt-rating agency is sounding the alarm on the Liberals’ big-spending pre-election budget.

A major debt-rating agency is sounding the alarm on the Liberals’ big-spending pre-election budget.

Moody’s Investors Service has changed the outlook on the province of Ontario’s ratings from “stable” to “negative” in the wake of Finance Minister Charles Sousa’s March 28 spending plan, which featured a $6.7-billion deficit.

While not a credit downgrade to Ontario’s “Aa2” rating, it is a warning shot.

“The outlook change to negative from stable on Ontario’s ratings reflects Moody’s expectations that spending pressure will challenge the province’s ability to sustain balanced fiscal results across multiple years,” the agency said in a news release.

“Furthermore. Moody’s assumes that the financing requirements will be larger than previously assumed, leading to an upward trend in the debt burden and a faster rise in interest expense than previously anticipated,” it said.

“With an election set for 7 June, the government released a 2018 budget that introduces a number of new spending initiatives and materially increases the capital infrastructure spending relative to previous plans. While this budget may not be implemented post-election, in Moody’s opinion, it highlights growing spending pressure that will need to be addressed in the near future.”

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...ratings-warning-shot-over-ontario-budget.html

Moody’s also says financing requirements on the province’s debt —projected to be $325 billion in 2018-2019 — will be larger than previously believed, leading to a faster increase in interest expenses.

Premier Kathleen Wynne defended the government’s pre-election budget, which will run a $6.7-billion deficit in 2018-2019, saying Moody’s change wasn’t a credit downgrade, which would affect borrowing costs for the province.

http://business.financialpost.com/n...-financial-outlook-changed-to-negative-moodys

 

[animatronic]

I can literally see Wynne and liberal leaders likely crying tears at night thinking of all all they have done and the budget has done nothing to help their poll numbers.

I think Wynne and the poster here do not understand that the desire to Kick Wynne out of office will be stronger then Liberal attempts to make Ford into Trump North.

This isn't Facebook. We know how politics work. Come back when you have something substantive to add.

 

[steveintoronto]

I think the level of it will likely be atypical for Canadian elections...

Ha! Technically, I'm an immigrant too, and I've swum in politics for most of my life, but I clearly remember the bust-up debate with Bouchard ripping Kim Campbell apart:

1993 Canadian Federal Election Debate

Watch starting at 1:42

I have differing views from all the participants, albeit it's a shame Bouchard wasn't a Cdn Federal player, the man had passion, eloquence and a firm grasp of the facts. Even Preston Manning, far from my political stance, is a man I respect, a man *good for his words*, and his missives long forgotten by today's reactionary knee-jerk Cons.

It's all a bit hokey, but it's *real*. And as much as I find Wynne unpleasant...hideous in some respects...I accord her the respect that she knows her facts, and she's an excellent debater. And then there's the lurking hulk of an idiot for whose glaring peccadilloes those that follow him overlook. Thugs don't have to be bright, or aware. Their value for their puppet-masters is the damage they do to others. Including those in their own party. The Mob cherish them, and then off them after the hit.

The OntCons had two excellent contenders, ladies with boxing gloves who played by the rules of etiquette, intelligence and decorum. But the savages opted for the thug. Time to purge the Con Party alright. Get rid of the rot. And the worst part is the leader. Kim Campbell showed the way to defeat on that. That being said, there's a world of difference between Campbell, an otherwise very able lawyer and person, and the imbecile thug that does set a precedent alright for Cdn politics.

Never has the bar been so low in this nation...

 

[steveintoronto]

And it's getting closer still:
Nine early signs of how Facebook ads are being used in Ontario’s election

ADAM RADWANSKI AND TOM CARDOSO
PUBLISHED 30 MINUTES AGOUPDATED APRIL 19, 2018

Even as Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford pushes back hard against comparisons to Donald Trump heading into this spring’s Ontario election, he has been using Facebook advertising to target Ontarians who are “interested” in the U.S. President.

Meanwhile, local candidates for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals have been highlighting exactly how much their government’s last-ditch spending spree will bring to their ridings. Issue-specific petitions are being used by all the province’s major political parties to encourage voters to share their data. And an array of outside interest groups – some doing one party’s bidding, others trying to drum up cross-partisan support for their issue of choice – are doing their best to shape voters’ opinions.

This is the sort of online messaging that will help shape Ontario’s spring election – and that tells the story of what a modern political campaign looks like, as digital micro-targeting increasingly replaces mass communication through more traditional advertising.


Much of that story will by its nature fly under most voters’ radars, because they will only see the sliver of ads targeted directly to them. But through a partnership with the U.S. investigative journalism non-profit ProPublica, The Globe and Mail is monitoring as many of those ads as possible, to give readers the fullest available picture.

Help The Globe monitor political ads on Facebook by installing ProPublica's browser extension. Learn more.

The more Ontarians who install a web-browser extension designed by ProPublica to capture the Facebook ads in their feeds – available here, along with a full explanation of privacy protections – the more complete the picture will be. Before the provincial campaign officially begins, it is already starting to take shape – as evidenced by these examples of ads, and their targeting information, captured so far.
[....]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...rump-curious-nine-things-weve-learned-so-far/

And as discussed prior in this string and related ones, Ontario Proud is up on the radar:

Third-party attack ads
Open this photo in gallery
THE GLOBE AND MAIL

Ontario Proud is the most prevalent example of a time-honoured tradition – outside groups helping one party by attacking another – being practised in a new way. Those attacks used to be on TV, often funded by unions (attacking the right) or corporate groups (attacking the left). Now, partly because of newly restrictive third-party spending limits and also because digital advertising is increasingly more effective, the action is mostly online.
[...]

Well, it seems that Dougie's luck might be coming to an end. There's a concerted effort to figure out how he got where he did, and with whose help, legal or otherwise.

More to come on this one...

 

[christiesplits]

New Forum poll: If an election were held today, Liberals would lose official party status.

http://www.qpbriefing.com/2018/04/2...ls-fall-third-place-risk-losing-party-status/

 

[BurlOak]

Eric Grenier at CBC updated today as well with this poll included. With a weighted average of recent polls he has:
PC / LIB / NDP
43.0/ 26.6 / 23.3 : % of vote
90 / 13 / 21 : seats

 

[steveintoronto]

^ I read that as Co al it i On.

 

[TrickyRicky]

I’ve been anti-Ford for over a decade on this forum but I think losing official party status is essentially a reasonable outcome for Wynne’s Ontario Liberal government based on their record. I’m not saying that as anti-Liberal, I have voted Liberal before and will do so again.

Doug is by far the worst leader for the PC party but I remember watching the Ontario Liberal convention where Wynne won the nomination. Charles Souza coming over to the Wynne camp was just as damaging and upsetting to me as a Ford PC win in March. Moderates just can’t seem to hold on in party politics in the province to the detriment of us all.

Two wrongs don’t make a right but at least if Ford changes directions we can get two years of tacking back to centre in Ontario until things get stupid the other way again.

 

[steveintoronto]

@TrickyRicky : I'd agree, with one huge caveat. The Con Plotters already have a plan in place for an almost immediate palace coup for his 'highness' (high on what is the question) and already have some criminal accusations researched and ready to go. Now what Party would do such a thing?

Once he's gone, a leader and caucus are installed that could actually govern and win again next election. Btw: The 'dirt' is probably how Ford won the leadership in the first place. And that just for a start...

 

[Northern Light]

Eric Grenier at CBC updated today as well with this poll included. With a weighted average of recent polls he has:
PC / LIB / NDP
43.0/ 26.6 / 23.3 : % of vote
90 / 13 / 21 : seats

The seat projections don't make sense to me, even if you accept the poll numbers at face value.

Mike Harris in his first term got 44.8% of the vote and captured 82 seats, in a larger legislature than this one will be.

I can't figure at 43% you get 90 seats of Ontario's current electoral map.

But, we shall see.

 

[animatronic]

@TrickyRicky : I'd agree, with one huge caveat. The Con Plotters already have a plan in place for an almost immediate palace coup for his 'highness' (high on what is the question) and already have some criminal accusations researched and ready to go. Now what Party would do such a thing?

Once he's gone, a leader and caucus are installed that could actually govern and win again next election. Btw: The 'dirt' is probably how Ford won the leadership in the first place. And that just for a start...

That sounds more like fan fiction than reality. Got anything to back that up or just spitballing?

 

[steveintoronto]

That sounds more like fan fiction than reality. Got anything to back that up or just spitballing?

You might want to ask Brown about that one. And Elliot in an unguarded moment.

The seat projections don't make sense to me, even if you accept the poll numbers at face value.

I questioned that too, but it really is a crap shoot at this point of persons polling frustrations, not serious consideration.

 

[adma]

The seat projections don't make sense to me, even if you accept the poll numbers at face value.

Mike Harris in his first term got 44.8% of the vote and captured 82 seats, in a larger legislature than this one will be.

I can't figure at 43% you get 90 seats of Ontario's current electoral map.

But, we shall see.

Keep in mind that the "other" share (i.e. mostly the Greens) is twice as high now as it was in 1995. Also, there's a greater proportion of 905-type seats today than in 1995, and fewer Tory-wasteland "urban" seats. Adjust the vote proportions accordingly, and 90 seats is plausible--and it isn't *that* much larger a figure than 82.

Though I still doubt the Tories will reach that high a number--though the silly way the Libs are pumping up the Ford = Trump jam, they're certainly *tempting* that high a number.

And really: let's be careful in accepting the "imminent/inevitable" implosion of DoFo which might neither be so imminent nor inevitable, especially when it comes to polling numbers. And above all, let's not complacently use the Cambridge Analytica crisis to discredit *all* "unfavourable" (i.e. pro-Ford) polling numbers. Remember what happened to the boy who cried wolf, after all.