Posted this over on "Mayor Rob Ford's Toronto", thought it might be of interest here, too:
I was just poking around on Forum's website and this press release, from yesterday, caught my eye:
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/123/majority-in-toronto-think-union-gains-are-at-risk-today/
While this is not a poll for the mayoral race, there is a table that lists an answer to one question by mayoral preference:
I found it interesting that of 1207 respondents 279 are listed as Ford supporters, 408 are for Tory and 293 are for Chow. Thats 980 total, so I assume 227 people are supporting other candidates or did not give their mayoral preference. Why is this interesting, you may ask? Well, lets do some percentages:
Tory - 408/1207 = 33.8%
Chow - 293/1207 = 24.3%
Ford - 279/1207 = 23.1%
Other/No Preference 227/1207 = 18.8%
Calculating percentages for just the three main candidates gives these results:
Tory - 408/980 = 41.6%
Chow - 293/980 = 29.9%
Ford - 279/980 = 28.5%
The poll was conducted August 13 and 14, right in between two polls released by Forum that show Ford gaining ground and leapfrogging into second place ahead of Chow. I think you would have to agree that the percentages listed above paint a very different picture. Is it possible that Forum has inadvertently given a better snapshot of the true state of the race, one that doesn't fit the media narrative of a Ford campaign that is gaining momentum?
ETA: I know during the provincial election, Forum's percentages had a "baked-in" demographic likely voter model (that they refused to describe in detail). It's possible they're doing the same thing for the mayoral election, skewing their percentages in Ford's favour. Also, these numbers are more in line with the Maple Leaf Strategies poll from July 30 and the Nanos poll from July 5, both of which showed Tory with a fairly substantial lead and Ford in third.
