2011 Federal Election Result Predictions

[nfitz]

Kim Campbell will send Ignatieff a sympathy card.

PM Kim Campbell went into the 1993 election with a majority government and 151 seats. When the election was called the Tories and Liberals were neck-in-neck at about 35% each, however by election day the Tories only had 16% of the vote and retained only 2 seats (both held by very popular politicians - Jean Charest and Elsie Wayne), finishing 5th, with the Bloc Quebecois forming the official opposition.

I can't for a minute imagine that in 2011 that the Liberals would anywhere near approach this level of a disaster. They went into the election polling about 28% (compared to 38% for the Tories). The last election the Tories had 38% compared to 26% for the Liberals. All Ignatieff has to do is improve the number of seats the Liberals currently have in the house, and he will have exceeded expectations.

 

[Brandon716]

I posted this on another forum, and I have a positive feeling that there will be a Liberal minority government propped up by a coalition.

---

There are a lot of ridings where Conservatives didn't win over the Liberals, NDP, and Greens.

According to records, this makes 62 ridings where the Conservatives won by plurality, of which nearly 40 are purely Liberal/NDP votes. Currently there are 77 Liberals and 36 NDP MP's seated. This yields 113, and 155 is needed for a majority. The Bloc has 47, and with the current setup they certainly can form a government without an election...

So, in order for conditions to radically change in favor of "The Harper Government" the Liberals would have to perform less favorably than they did under Dion. I fail to see how Ignatieff would deliver an election performance less than that, I think it is impossible.

So the worst case scenario is another minority where a coalition occurs. I think this time there will be a coalition if Harper garners another minority. I don't see Harper getting a majority for several reasons:

*Harper has pretty major scandal on his hands now, it will be an election issue and a campaign issue

*People don't love Ignatieff, but he is well positioned to perform above and beyond Dion. I think it is impossible for Ignatieff to deliver a poorer result than Dion, considering how single-tracked Dion's Green Shift was and how poorly he campaigned

*Over a million Liberals sat out the election in 2008, mostly because of how bad Dion ran the campaign and there was no energy for the election in any capacity. Source for the million is a CBC article of which I can't find the link to at the moment. A large percentage of these voters are going to come out for Ignatieff. Especially in Ontario and possibly even some ridings in Quebec.

*The NDP is in a weaker position this election. The past two elections have included a lot of soft Liberals who voted NDP to punish the Liberals. They were punishing the Liberals in 2006 for Sponsorship and other scandal. They were punishing Liberals in 2008 mostly because of the same thing plus lack of faith in Dion. Jack Layton was seen as a strong, competent leader vs Dion. A large percent of "soft Liberals" that voted NDP are coming back to the red door, and they are as sick of Harper as any other group is and understand what is going on. The problem is that I haven't seen numbers in polling of how large this group is, but I feel it is larger than we think.

So added up, I think the NDP will have a net loss, the Liberals will have a net gain, and the Conservatives will maintain similar numbers. I believe a coalition government will occur with the Liberals and NDP officially signing a deal, along with a Bloc conditional agreement not to vote against Liberal/NDP budgets for several years.

That is my projection as of now.


39 ridings where the Liberal + NDP vote is stronger than Conservative from 2008:

Riding / Incumbent
Egmont Gail Shea Conservative/Conservateur
South Shore--St. Margaret's Gerald Keddy ** Conservative/Conservateur
West Nova/Nova-Ouest Greg Kerr Conservative/Conservateur
Fredericton Keith Ashfield Conservative/Conservateur
Miramichi Tilly O'Neill-Gordon Conservative/Conservateur
Saint John Rodney Weston Conservative/Conservateur
Ahuntsic Maria Mourani ** Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Alfred-Pellan Robert Carrier ** Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Brome--Missisquoi Christian Ouellet ** Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Gatineau Richard Nadeau ** Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia Jean-Yves Roy ** Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Jeanne-Le Ber Thierry St-Cyr ** Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Laval Nicole Demers ** Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Pontiac Lawrence Cannon ** Conservative/Conservateur
Saint-Lambert Josée Beaudin Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Brant Phil McColeman Conservative/Conservateur
Essex Jeff Watson ** Conservative/Conservateur
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell Pierre Lemieux ** Conservative/Conservateur
Haldimand--Norfolk Diane Finley ** Conservative/Conservateur
Huron--Bruce Ben Lobb Conservative/Conservateur
Kenora Greg Rickford Conservative/Conservateur
Kitchener Centre/Kitchener-Centre Stephen Woodworth Conservative/Conservateur
Kitchener--Waterloo Peter Braid Conservative/Conservateur
London West/London-Ouest Ed Holder Conservative/Conservateur
Mississauga--Erindale Bob Dechert Conservative/Conservateur
Oak Ridges--Markham Paul Calandra Conservative/Conservateur
Oshawa Colin Carrie ** Conservative/Conservateur
Ottawa--Orléans Royal Galipeau ** Conservative/Conservateur
Ottawa West--Nepean/Ottawa-Ouest--Nepean John Baird ** Conservative/Conservateur
St. Catharines Rick Dykstra ** Conservative/Conservateur
Saint Boniface/Saint-Boniface Shelly Glover Conservative/Conservateur
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River/Desnethé--Missinippi--Rivière Churchill Rob Clarke ** Conservative/Conservateur
Palliser Ray Boughen Conservative/Conservateur
Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar Kelly Block Conservative/Conservateur
Fleetwood--Port Kells Nina Grewal ** Conservative/Conservateur
North Vancouver Andrew Saxton Conservative/Conservateur
Saanich--Gulf Islands Gary Lunn ** Conservative/Conservateur
Surrey North/Surrey-Nord Dona Cadman Conservative/Conservateur
Nunavut Leona Aglukkaq Conservative/Conservateur

23 ridings where the Liberal + NDP + Green vote is greater than Conservative from 2008:

Riding / Incumbent
Central Nova/Nova-Centre Peter Gordon MacKay ** Conservative/Conservateur
Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale David Sweet ** Conservative/Conservateur
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Larry Miller ** Conservative/Conservateur
Burlington Mike Wallace ** Conservative/Conservateur
Cambridge Gary Goodyear ** Conservative/Conservateur
Chatham-Kent--Essex Dave Van Kesteren ** Conservative/Conservateur
Elgin--Middlesex--London Joe Preston ** Conservative/Conservateur
Halton Lisa Raitt Conservative/Conservateur
Kitchener--Conestoga Harold Albrecht ** Conservative/Conservateur
Newmarket--Aurora Lois Brown Conservative/Conservateur
Niagara Falls Rob Nicholson ** Conservative/Conservateur
Northumberland--Quinte West Rick Norlock ** Conservative/Conservateur
Oakville Terence Young Conservative/Conservateur
Perth--Wellington Gary Ralph Schellenberger ** Conservative/Conservateur
Peterborough Dean Del Mastro ** Conservative/Conservateur
Simcoe North/Simcoe-Nord Bruce Stanton ** Conservative/Conservateur
Thornhill Peter Kent Conservative/Conservateur
Winnipeg South/Winnipeg-Sud Rod Bruinooge ** Conservative/Conservateur
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre Laurie Hawn ** Conservative/Conservateur
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo Cathy McLeod Conservative/Conservateur
Nanaimo--Alberni James Lunney ** Conservative/Conservateur
Vancouver Island North/ÃŽle de Vancouver-Nord John Duncan Conservative/Conservateur
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country John Weston Conservative/Conservateur

Source: http://web.ncf.ca/at319/temp/coalition.xls


2011 Projection
"The Harper Government" - 130
Liberals - 115
NDP - 20 (yes, I think the NDP will take it's biggest hit in over a decade in 2011)
Bloc - 43 (yes, I think the Liberals will rebound in Quebec for a few ridings, particularly around Montreal. Sponsorship is the distant past in political years now)

The two Edmonton ridings I'm going to be watching closely:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmonton—Mill_Woods—Beaumont
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmonton_Centre

 

[jje1000]

*Over a million Liberals sat out the election in 2008, mostly because of how bad Dion ran the campaign and there was no energy for the election in any capacity. Source for the million is a CBC article of which I can't find the link to at the moment. A large percentage of these voters are going to come out for Ignatieff. Especially in Ontario and possibly even some ridings in Quebec.

This is a huge issue. If the Liberals can get supporters (especially students) to start caring and vote, they can get a pretty big boost.

 

[Brandon716]

I've started reading a number of polls on the enthusiasm issue, Ignatieff wins the category in momentum or building enthusiasm so far by a good bit. The Conservative ads that ran over the past several years appear to have backfired, they have set such low expectations on Ignatieff that everything he does appears to be a success. Even with the members running in various ridings that have caused some slight mischief, he's got the momentum thus far.

 

[nfitz]

I posted this on another forum, and I have a positive feeling that there will be a Liberal minority government propped up by a coalition.

That doesn't make sense. If it's a coalition, surely it would be the government, rather than propping up the government.

We have never had a federal coalition in Canada in history - well at least since before Confederation ... (though given the outcome of that coalition was the 1867 creation of Canada, I'm not sure why one would fear it).

What would make you think we'd been heading towards coalition after 150 years of not having any? Surely the likely outcome is a Liberal or Conservative minority government propped up by other parties, just like we've had in the 1960s, 1970s, and 2000s?

 

[Brandon716]

People are so caught up in the word coalition and defining that word. I'm aware a coalition hasn't been officially formed as of yet, but it is likely the next government will be a minority government. Regardless whether the coalition is official or not isn't really as big of a deal as people think, Harper has been in an unofficial coalition with the NDP over his budgets, for example.

Westminster Parliamentary systems are 100% compatible with an official coalition concept as well, just look at what has happened in Britain. If it could happen in Britain, it can happen in Canada. You just never can say never like I have heard repeatedly over the past several years. I have been told everything in the book, that my opinions aren't important because I was born in the US, or that I don't know what I'm talking about on the coalition talk... First off, the US is totally irrelevant (thankfully) to this discussion. Coalitions don't happen in a two party system in the republic to the south... I could care less about the US quite frankly. (and I'm not saying this in response to you nfitz, just as a general statement since that has been brought up in other topics @ UT). What I love is discussing concepts and political strategy that is new to Canada given light of the circumstances. Minority governments aren't improbable, they are now part of Canada's history. Time and time again there have been governments that are minority governments.

The thing about 2011 is that it is a stalemate period... Minority governments seem likely no matter what party wins. Right now is the time to talk about how to make a minority period more stable by introducing official coalitions.

For one thing, I believe Ignatieff when he says he doesn't intend on forming a coalition with the NDP. I don't think there will be an official coalition, unless... The NDP and Liberals end up holding the balance of power (along with enough Bloc support), and Stephen Harper still has enough seats to claim a so-called minority government simply because they have more than the Liberals. I don't think another Conservative government is going to form if they just happen to have more seats than any other individual party. Canada has voted consistently 60-70% left, centre-left, and far left over the past several decades. Canada's voting population has never given Conservatives a mandate for anything even beyond Martin's failure to win in 2006 and during this rise of Stephen Harper. Harper is not going above 40% in my view, I've studied the stats, where the polls show people stand... His government is maxed out.

Harper is right about one thing.. It will either be a Harper majority government (I wouldn't exactly call it "stable" though), or some form of a Liberal minority or a coalition of some kind. That's the only thing I've ever agreed with him on this election.

Why is an official coalition a good idea? It makes the government more stable. If the NDP were in an official coalition with the Liberals - and yes it is a big if - then they would get a few NDP ministers and would be part of the government. When they are part of a government, it is less likely for them to vote against the government.

If it is like we've seen in the past, unofficial coalitions, then it'll simply be a less stable minority gov't.

While it may be unlikely, it isn't improbable. It is fun to discuss these issues I think. I'm in Ontario for a few days right now trying to help the Liberals out, because I think they are a splendid choice to take down the Harper Government. Despite sponsorship, the Liberals presided over a decade of balanced budgets, kept Canada's banking system regulated, signed a health accord in 2004 to provide needed financial support to the system, and on social rights the Liberals stood up and made Canada the beacon of human rights and freedom in 2004 by nationalizing gay marriage and bringing the law into the 21st century.

To me I think the Liberals have an impressive record, so I will do my part to help them. Talking about all this other stuff is just fun on the side. No one knows where this coalition stuff is headed, but it certainly isn't incompatible with Canadian democracy.

 

[urbandreamer]

Wanna hear a funny, that I predict you won't get as a non-Canadian?

Stephen Harper will win the election, because he's boring!

 

[Brandon716]

I'm not really a "non-Canadian" at this point. I spent years prepping my application for residency, just to have the rules changed in 2007/08. I've been patiently waiting for a new chance, gaining new experience, and I live a few miles from the border and frequent the area quite often.

 

[afransen]

Dreamer, that's a bit of a dickish comment.

 

[GraphicMatt]

I'm not really a "non-Canadian" at this point. I spent years prepping my application for residency, just to have the rules changed in 2007/08. I've been patiently waiting for a new chance, gaining new experience, and I live a few miles from the border and frequent the area quite often.

A few kilometres from the border.

 

[Admiral Beez]

If Harper wins another minority, the question is will he stay around for another 3-4 years of this. In many cases it comes down to the spouse, so if Lauren says she's had enough Harper might go home. Of course he's not a lawyer, so he doesn't have the usual big law firm job to fall back on.

 

[WillC]

That doesn't make sense. If it's a coalition, surely it would be the government, rather than propping up the government.

We have never had a federal coalition in Canada in history - well at least since before Confederation ... (though given the outcome of that coalition was the 1867 creation of Canada, I'm not sure why one would fear it).

What would make you think we'd been heading towards coalition after 150 years of not having any?...

You forgot this one.

Since Confederation there has only been one federal coalition government in Canada’s history: the Union Government of World War I, which lasted from 1917-1920. This was a coalition between the Conservative Party, led by Robert Borden, and Liberals and independents.

Faced with strong opposition to conscription and with other major difficulties during WWI, Borden sought to broaden his wartime political base by bringing several conscriptionist Liberals and other public figures into his government.

In the December 1917 general election, this government won a decisive victory over Sir Wilfrid Laurier’s Liberals. The Union coalition did not long survive its triumph: the end of the war brought many Liberals back to their old affiliation, while other Unionists supported the new Progressive party.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/547281

 

[ungodlycrosscheck]

There was a bit of an Ontario-Quebec centric comment made that the Tories had peaked in the two provinces and because of that a majority was out of reach.

I disagree strongly on two points...
1. There are several ridings in Ontario and Quebec that are not currently held by the Tories that are very much in play.
2. Even if the best the Conservatives could do in Ontario and Quebec is "save the furniture" in those provinces, there are still enough seats in play in other regions, to get them the 12 seats they need for a mathematical majority.

With regards to the first point, in Ontario, I've highlighted the ridings the Conservatives are agressively targetting. To illustrate how tight the races are, I've also included the winning party and margin of victory from the 2008 election.
Welland (NDP- 300 votes)
Brampton West (LPC - 223)
Brampton Sprindale (LPC - 773)
Sault Ste. Marie (NDP - 1 111)
Guelph (LPC - 1 788)
York Centre (LPC - 2 032)
Eglinton Lawrence (LPC - 2 060)
Mississauga South (LPC - 2 152)
Kingston and the Islands (LPC - 3 839)

With regards to Quebec, again don't be surprised if the Conservatives gain from their current 11 seats. Several Bloc seats are in play where the Tories finished a very close second in 2008 and this despite a terrible ground game in Quebec, those ridings are:
Abitibi--Baie James
Brome--Missisquoi
Louis Hebert
Drummond
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
Manicouagan

As for my second point there are enough ridings in play in other provinces that the Tories could reasonably pick-up to get to majority. Without naming ridings the provinces and territories with their realistic, potential gains look like this:
Newfoundland and Labrador (3 potential seats in play)
PEI (1 seat)
Nova Scotia (hold)
NB (1 seat)
Manitoba (2 seats)
Saskatchewan (hold)
Alberta (1 seat)
BC (7-8 seats)
NWT (1 seat)
Yukon (hold)
NWT (hold)

That's 16-17 seats they have a very good shot at outside of Ontario and Quebec, not easy, but entirely possible.

Final point, the Tories research and micro-polling is far better than anything their opponents have, not expressing a political preference just a fact based on some professional insight. A clear signal of how the Tories really think they are doing and what their internal polling is telling them is to watch the Leader's tour. If it includes more whistlestops in ridings they don't hold, they're feeling pretty upbeat. Harper has spent a lot of time outside the traditional Tory base--a lot. Conversely, Iggy's tour has been much more focused on staying close to his base, what should that tell folks?

 

[adma]

With regards to Quebec, again don't be surprised if the Conservatives gain from their current 11 seats. Several Bloc seats are in play where the Tories finished a very close second in 2008 and this despite a terrible ground game in Quebec, those ridings are:
Abitibi--Baie James
Brome--Missisquoi
Louis Hebert
Drummond
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
Manicouagan

You're correct w/ABJ, LH, and CLF--and sorta-Drummond. However, re BM, it was the *Liberal* candidate that was a very close second (former MP Denis Paradis, who's running again); and the gap in Manicouagan was a not-so-close 22 points (though the Liberal candidate controversy might toss more votes into the Tory basket--that is, if said votes don't shift NDP instead, post-debate)

 

[nfitz]

You forgot this one.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/547281

No, I didn't forget it. I discounted it.

It wasn't a coalition government in the traditional sense. From 1917 to the 1920s, it was just another party - the Unionist Party. For a few months in 1917 there was this odd coming together of Conservatives and some rebel Liberals ... but the Conservatives already had a majority government. I think you have to go back to the 1860s to find a coalition in the normal sense, such as the current British goverment.

The CBC - http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2010/05/13/f-coalition-government.html seems to also go back to the 1860s for the last true coalition government in Canada.