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2006 Census

^ And, really, demographic shifts in Willowdale's single detached housing has resulted in just as many new residents as the condos...20 years ago, practically every house was inhabited by a solitary widow, but now the widows have mostly gone and families are taking their place. Even if, in reality, only small numbers of families are replacing widows, going from 1 person per house to 4 can really make the population skyrocket.

Scarborough-Rouge River also exploded, but most of the riding is actually set to decline as kids leave the house, balancing out the effect of greenfield subdivisions.

My census tract is 30 years old and, like clockwork, is now shrinking.

edit - check out this little flash movie showing growth/density throughout the CMA since 1971:
geodepot.statcan.ca/Diss2...t=Download
 
^ Of course, I didn't mean to draw any conclusions, just to start off a bit of discussion on those topics. Obviously, if we had more transit expansion in underserviced areas, we'd have more ridership, more infill development and less depopulation.

Seeing as how TTC's mandate only covers the 416, which has seen essentially no growth population-wise in the last 5 years, it seems like what we really need to be focusing on as a top priority is some kind of regional S-bahn type service, which would also serve nodes in the inner suburbs, and connect with the TTC. Of course, this isn't exactly news to most people here...
 
I don't think there is any "doom and gloom" scenario pending for most of Toronto and burbs. Neighbourhoods go in cycles. It is only natural that young families populate the newer neighbourhoods. As families mature and kids grow up and move out, there is decline. It results in schools becoming vacant, etc. Hiowever, eventually the cycle reverses, as the old folks move to retirement communities, etc., and houses are sold to younger families who start the cycle again.

On another point, though, I'm just listening to Rob McIsaac, head of the GTTA, on the radio. He points out that the transit infrastructure challenges are in the 905. I think that's true, and a big investment in a subway to Jane and Hwy. 7 just won't cut it. Similar comments might apply to other infrastructure items which carry a big cost and have a long planning cycle, especially hospitals.
 
Don't overestimate the accuracy of the census. The City of Toronto has a much higher population that could be considered transient, English as a second language, etc. These people are far more likely to be missed than a typical suburban nuclear family.
 
Scarborough-Rouge River also exploded, but most of the riding is actually set to decline as kids leave the house, balancing out the effect of greenfield subdivisions.
Click to expand...

I don't see that decline happening anytime soon. Not only is the area popular with South Asians, who are bringing larger, younger families into the area, but the single-family housing here is gradually being converted into boarding houses for mainland Chinese immigrants. Houses which were designed for a family of three or four are now converted into boarding houses for six or eight people.

The house behind my backyard is one of those conversions Now from my second-floor bedroom I look into what looks like a kitchen- it used to be a bedroom. The signs of the changing demographics can be seen on the street... South Asian kids with their souped-up cars, mainland Chinese riding their bikes to and from grocery stores, and the ever-crowded buses that are unable to meet the transit demands of a booming neighbourhood.
 
Link to article

Six added to nation's big-city club
Barrie, Guelph, Brantford and Peterborough in Ontario; Moncton, N.B. and Kelowna, B.C.

Meagan Fitzpatrick
CanWest News Service

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Six cities were added to Canada's list of census metropolitan areas for a grand total of 33, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday in its first release of the 2006 census.

A census metropolitan area (CMA) has a population of at least 100,000 and an urban core of 50,000. The six new CMAs are Barrie, Guelph, Brantford and Peterborough in Ontario; Moncton, N.B. and Kelowna, B.C.

Between 2001 and 2006, 15 of Canada's 33 CMAs saw a higher rate of population growth than the national average of 5.4 per cent. It was Barrie however that led the pack-by a long shot. That city's population increased at a rate of 19.2 per cent, nearly four times faster than the national average. Located about an hour north of Toronto, the city's population count grew to 177,061 residents.

Of the 15 CMAs in Canada that had a higher rate of population growth than the national average, six are in southern Ontario-all of them are in, or around, Toronto. In addition to Barrie, Oshawa, Kitchener, Guelph and Brantford are all about an hour's drive north or south of the country's biggest city.

Several other municipalities around Toronto saw huge growth, including Brampton, Vaughan, Whitby, Markham, Richmond Hill, Milton, Ajax, Aurora, Oakville, Newmarket and Mississauga.

After Barrie, Calgary was the CMA with the next-highest growth rate, Statistics Canada reported. Its population grew by 13.4 per cent between 2001 and 2006. Alberta's other CMA, Edmonton, also saw vigorous growth, increasing its head count by 10.4 per cent. The province's economic boom can take much of the credit for the growth in those two cities, Statistics Canada said.

"The buoyancy of the province's job market has attracted many workers from the rest of Canada, and large numbers of them have settled in the two major metropolitan areas," the report said. "Immigration and relatively high fertility have also been significant factors in Calgary's and Edmonton's population boom."

Top 10 fastest growing CMAs:
Barrie, Ont.
Calgary, Alta.
Oshawa, Ont.
Edmonton, Alta.
Kelowna, B.C.
Toronto, Ont.
Kitchener, Ont.
Guelph, Ont.
Abbotsford, B.C.
Moncton, N.B.
 
If you wanna know the story behind Milton it's this: an earlier suburban boom in the 70s/80s maxed out its assigned "serviced" urban core, and it spent a generation stagnant around 30 thou. Finally, in recent years, the "big pipe" hit, and Milton astutely opened up a whole smack of other land to tract subdivision. Thus the present "making up for lost time" population explosion; essentially, Milton exploiting newfound trunk sewer access by initiating itself into the heart of the GTA with a vengeance.

Trunk sewers can do that. Believe it or not, Vaughan was relatively 10-20 thousand range stagnant in the early years of York Region, with urbanity confined to the old cores of Woodbridge/Maple/Thornhill--then the Big Pipe hit, and BOOM.

Imagine if everything W of the Credit and N of Dundas in Mississauga was a separate municipality called "Streetsville" in 1971 (i.e. the actual old town with regional-style rural fringe added on). Then imagine its population in 1976, once Erin Mills and Meadowvale took root within these hypothetical "Streetsville" boundaries. See what I mean? When you're just small enough, a little tract subdivision can go a long way...
 
Would the likely increase in home values (proximity to the core, gentrification, etc) lead to a replacement group that is far less likely to have kids?
Click to expand...
I've seen that trend in East York bungalows, mostly 1-2 per people per household. There were some conversions to 2-story homes but that has tailed considerably the last dozen years. Surprised not much condo activity in East York at the town centre and Thorncliffe Park.
 
Re the declines in Etobicoke North and York North: I wonder how much of an incipient "ghetto flight" is in effect there--which might be a first for Toronto. (What's the population in the high-rises now compared to 5 years ago?)
 
If you wanna know the story behind Milton it's this: an earlier suburban boom in the 70s/80s maxed out its assigned "serviced" urban core, and it spent a generation stagnant around 30 thou.
Click to expand...

Absolutely right. There's a pretty bad article in the Star touting "rural attributes" (like Chudleigh's) and quick commutes as reasons for Milton's rapid growth. Not the case, of course, though the doubling of the urban area's population and land area in 5 years is still incredible, really unwise - try driving Derry Road these days.
 
Milton's growth is notable for no reason other than its initially small size...I like to think of it as the Moreno Valley effect. Brampton, Vaughan, Markham, etc., all subdivided, built and populated larger areas, but the relative growth over the past 5 years is less impressive.

I wonder how many condos Toronto will have to build over time just to keep pace with the decline in household size. I guess the city stands to rake in a heck of a lot more taxes that way. In 50 years it seems like there'll be 3,000,000 households of 1 person each.

"I don't see that decline happening anytime soon."

It's already happened - your census tract declined in population, so did mine, and they won't be going up any time soon. You're really overestimating the prevalence of Chinese boarding houses...my street has maybe 3 of them out of ~120 houses. Actually, the house next door used to be one but no longer is.
 
I recently moved to Milton, here is my account.

I was able to purchase a detached house with four bedrooms, I have a pond across the street which I can enjoy from my second floor balcony when I am not looking at the Escarpment which rises above. (And relatively speaking, this is real geography in the GTA - cliffs, caves, etc) A two-minute walk from my front door they just opened a Starbucks, a brand spanking new large grocery store, everything is brand new, a new multiplex, new Home Depot, etc... I never see anyone over 35. MILFs galore (which from second floor balcony pass below me on their way to the aforementioned Starbucks for some Steamed Milk or whatever the hell the always pregnant drink). I have a backyard, not a patch of grass.

I have never been into Milton. I don't know what the actual "town" part looks like. The old-school locals hate that, all their downtown shops are closing. I read the local paper, which is always the same, some dude stole a snowmobile, broke into a car, drove that car into a convenience store.

I am happy, atleast that is what I tell myself. Then I drive into the city everyday and realize my life is empty in Milton, there is nothing interesting here, its formulaic, the smiles are ignorance, these people buy big houses and nice cars with the money they save for the price of a downtown one bedroom condo and think they have found the end of the rainbow. It is some deformed wonderland. Eleven o'clock on a Friday night I walk into the Shoppers Drug Mart (new, of course), to get some pop. Goth girls selling makeup smile. Your in Milton! Can you really be goth? The only death here ladies, is your soul, slowly.

I hate it. But when I drive home, through farm fields, down a valley, over a one lane bridge where horses graze (really) for a moment I like it. And I can always turn on the computer to see what is happening in the real world.
 
ab.jpg
 
Well Jamiroquai, your writing is eloquent. You make many good points.

Unasked-for and probably obvious comment: We all have to decide what we want. If you like being near horses grazing in fields, the Escarpment, Kelso, Bruce Trail, real apple farms, etc. ... (and yes the pseudo-Goth girls faking it in suburbia!)

On the other hand if you want the urban excitement, street life other than the yummy mummys walking to Starbucks, ... , you'll have to move, and maybe swap your house for a condo. You would gain some things and give up some things.

It's all about trade-offs, wherever we are.
 
So stupid. Headlines like in the sun "people leaving cities". Last time I looked at the same stats, the city was still growing. For people going, there are always those coming.
 
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