2006 Census

[AlvinofDiaspar]

spm:

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised that the population loss comes from census tracts with predominantely single detached housing.

AoD

 

[scarberiankhatru]

A quick guess as to where the loss is coming from would be areas with houses built in the 60s and 70s.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

spm:

Another thing is - presuming that it is the inner suburban, single detached housing tracts that are losing population - what is the future trend? Assuming at some point that the original/current inhabitants will grow old and move out, what will the replacement population be like? Would the likely increase in home values (proximity to the core, gentrification, etc) lead to a replacement group that is far less likely to have kids?

I think Avenues is important, but even more important is to ensure there is balance in socio-economic class and the type of units offered.

AoD

 

[spmarshall]

I think that also depends on whether that area with empty nesters will attract immigrants, who will be more likely to have larger families. That's something else to consider for sure.

I think Avenues is important, but even more important is to ensure there is balance in socio-economic class and the type of units offered.

I see this as being largely intertwined. The Avenues will promote apartments and townhouse intensification along corridors, where behind will be the same single-family dwellings. A mix of housing stock, of course, is key to having a healthy sociodemographic, even economic mix. That and a steady supply of affordable housing, particularly for families (downtown condos simply don't offer this).

 

[Canuck 36]

Do these numbers include the "undercount"? Would Toronto not get a large boost when those figures are included?

 

[alklay]

I think you are exactly right and therefore, we are very much talking about the inner suburbs. Almost all of the families I know that live in such homes, the kids are out of the house, and many have moved outside of the city.

 

[spmarshall]

Ooooh! A great, intellegent conversation going on here.

Yep, I think that's exactly what's going on - Scarborough is likely growing slightly thanks to Morningside Heights, STC, and a few other condos. North York and Toronto is where the most intensification is going, so that's why I'd bet these are seeing positive counts, the others negative (just about nothing going on, relatively, in Etobicoke, but especially York or East York).

This is why the Avenues is important, and further intensification. Also, the inner 905 cities have better adjust before they hit the curve - Mississauga at least has MCC growth that will shelter it from population decline in 10-15 years - Vaughan, Durham? Not so sure.

 

[waterloowarrior]

the map

geodepot.statcan.ca/Diss2...l_Ec-2.pdf

 

[Archivistower]

I'm always interested in the switchovers. Saskatoon surpassed Regina a few censuses ago, and this time Moncton surpassed Saint John, and Calgary surpassed Edmonton. That's two provinces with new largest cities.

Also, I often find it interesting that although Alberta's growth rate is high (for cities, by CMA) Toronto's is not that much behind. I bet if you asked people the perception of the gap would be much more.

 

[spmarshall]

Thanks! Very interesting map for sure! The decline is all over, and really does follow where the 1960s-1980s housing stock is, 416 and 905.

The CT I moved out of in Brampton (and my parents moved out of a few months ago) is an anomoly. According to that map, it had over a 10% increase in population, even though no new housing stock was built (built mostly between 1978 and 1995). Though the area is in transition, with larger South Asian immigrant families moving in. The CT I moved into is dark purple, in an area with a lot of orange.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

And you can see the effect of gentification on Parkdale AND Riverdale, with slight declines in population.

AoD

 

[interchange42]

Counts are out for the federal electoral districts, so you can get an idea here of what parts of town are growing and which aren't.

Etobicoke is a good example of what has been speculated about earlier in this thread:

Etobicoke Lakeshore, the oldest of the three districts, is seeing the most regeneration, and grew a bit. Etobicoke Centre, which has a mix of 60s suburban and subway-station oriented redeveloping midurban areas pretty much held its own, while Etobichoke North, which is essentially a 60s through 90s suburban hell of tract homes, is hemmoraging.

Conversely there are inner city areas that are well served by the subway which are losing population, like Davenport, and 60s suburban areas that are gaining, like Willowdale. It has got to be the Sheppard subway that has boosted Willowdale population-wise (and not just at NY Towers). In general though, over the last 5 years I'll be the population count per dwelling is dropping in every area, and only areas that are getting new dwellings, lots of them, are seeing an uptick in the population numbers. Low mortgage rates = low pop per dwelling figures.

Federal Electoral District&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 2006&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 2001&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp %chg&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp dwellings&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp occupied

Beaches - East York&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 104,831&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 108,913&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -3.7&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 47,241&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 44,404
Davenport&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 104,615&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 111,705&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -6.3&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 42,983&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 39,901
Don Valley East&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 109,640&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 111,177&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -1.4&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 42,266&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 40,557
Don Valley West&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 117,083&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 115,539&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 1.3&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 47,808&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 45,626
Eglinton - Lawrence&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 110,066&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 106,879&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 3.0&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 46,129&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 43,641
Etobicoke Centre&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 111,349&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 111,792&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -0.4&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 43,496&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 41,918
Etobicoke - Lakeshore&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 114,641&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 113,914&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.6&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 53,165&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 49,999
Etobicoke North&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 108,501&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 112,411&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -3.5&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 35,412&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 33,269
Parkdale - High Park&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 102,142&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 106,559&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -4.1&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 49,306&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 46,161
Pickering - Scarborough East&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 106,602&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 106,722&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -0.1&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 34,923&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 33,953
Scarborough - Agincourt&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 111,867&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 110,669&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 1.1&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 37,602&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 36,523
Scarborough Centre&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 108,010&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 102,922&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 4.9&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 41,079&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 38,816
Scarborough - Guildwood&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 108,813&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 112,628&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -3.4&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 39,611&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 37,523
Scarborough - Rouge River&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 130,974&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 115,437&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 13.5&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 38,103&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 36,862
Scarborough Southwest&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 102,196&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 105,237&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -2.9&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 41,248&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 39,193
St. Paul's&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 111,131&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 112,449&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -1.2&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 58,864&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 55,312
Toronto Centre&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 121,407&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 114,581&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 6.0&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 69,850&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 64,524
Toronto - Danforth&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 103,655&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 109,713&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -5.5&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 45,718&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 43,282
Trinity - Spadina&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 115,361&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 106,094&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 8.7&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 62,361&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 56,083
Willowdale&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 129,356&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 108,454&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 19.3&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 55,184&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 51,736
York Centre&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 113,457&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 113,420&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.0&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 45,340&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 42,638
York South - Weston&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 114,458&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 114,539&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -0.1&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 45,802&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 42,732
York West&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 103,948&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 110,384&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -5.8&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 37,538&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 34,558

2001: 42 2006: 42, n/c

 

[boiler2000]

Another semi-interesting fact to note is that this is the first census in which Toronto doesn't constitute a majority of its CMA population-wise. In the last census, the City of Toronto held about 53% of the population of the CMA, and this time it's at 49%. Of course all these divisions are fairly arbitrary, but this fact must carry some weight politically...

One thing I'm wondering about is implications for transportation. Since most of the growth areas are along already well-serviced transit corridors, that means that the number of people that needs improved TTC service actually decreased.

This of course must be at least a small factor in the population movements, with people gravitating toward well-serviced areas, and away from neglected areas. If the transit doesn't come to the people, the people will come to the transit - or move away entirely, to similarly underserviced but more affordable and newer areas in the 905, which has obviously been happening massively.

 

[spmarshall]

One thing I'm wondering about is implications for transportation. Since most of the growth areas are along already well-serviced transit corridors, that means that the number of people that needs improved TTC service actually decreased.

But those serviced corridors are already crowded. We'll need to relieve those somehow - and the Yonge line is already full. Perhaps redirecting growth within Toronto, or redirecting transit priorities. Tough choices need to be made. Transit ridership grew each year in the past 10.

I don't think "the number of people that needs improved TTC service actually decreased." - transit is needed more than ever, and who knows what will happen 10 years down the road. Most of the boom has been condo-based. Davenport for example will soon see a population increase with developments going on that way.

You may be reading too much into the above numbers when it comes to transit needs and non-needs.

 

[Ed007Toronto]

Conversely there are inner city areas that are well served by the subway which are losing population, like Davenport, and 60s suburban areas that are gaining, like Willowdale. It has got to be the Sheppard subway that has boosted Willowdale population-wise (and not just at NY Towers).

Actually NYCC has boosted Willowdale the most. How many new condos have been built between Finch and the 401 over the past 5 years. Plenty. And I would think Toronto is going to pick up shortly. Too many condos opening now or in the pipeline for it not to happen.