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2005-6 Federal Election: New poll shows Tories in the lead

I'm quite surprised by the Conservative surge. If people are upset at the Liberals I never understood why they wouldn't give the NDP a good look. But switching from Liberal to Conservative?? :lol
 
^ I could never understand why the NDP seems to want to look anti-business though. Why do they seem to have a "stick it to the corporations" attitude... like a tax break for a company that provides jobs to Canada is a bad thing. Can't corporations co-exist with a government which plans to increase minimum wage, punish polluters, and close tax loopholes on company perks, etc.? I think that is what scares many away from voting NDP in the first place... a fear they will overspend and alienate business.

Some Green policies are obviously in fantasy land but any government lawyer would straighten them out if they actually got anywhere... such as Clean Air and Clean Water in the Charter of Rights. Nice sentiment but clean air and water based on what criteria and whose responsibility? If there is naturally occurring bacteria or silt in the water have your charter rights have been violated and by who? There are other ways to crack down on polluters without modifying the Charter of Rights.
 
heckles:

A good chunk of the Liberal voters are markedly centrist - slightly to the left or right; a shift towards a Conservative Party branded as centrist is only logical given the unpalability of the Liberals.

Besides, it's the same crowd that switched allegeance from the then Tories to Liberals ten years ago, when they took up the deficit fighting banner (plus the anti-sleaze stance against the Mulroney-era).

AoD
 
From the Star:

Reopen missile defence: Harper
Harper woos `working families'
Says he relates to middle class
Jan. 13, 2006. 05:38 AM
BRUCE CAMPION-SMITH
OTTAWA BUREAU


HALIFAX—Conservative Leader Stephen Harper says he's ready to reopen the debate over Canadian participation in the American missile defence system.

The missile defence initiative, combined yesterday with a Harper pledge to turn his back on the Kyoto accord and his refusal to endorse a $5 billion deal for aboriginal aid, could signal the type of major policy realignment Canadians can expect under a Harper government.

In an interview with Radio-Canada yesterday, Harper pledged a free vote in the House of Commons on the controversial proposal to join the missile defence program.

Harper said if the Americans made another proposal and "if we come to the conclusion that it's in the country's best interests, it's my intention to turn this treaty over to Parliament for a free vote."

The Bush administration's defence plan includes setting up a network of land-based missiles designed to intercept incoming missiles. The U.S. has long sought Canada's participation, although it's unclear what role Canada would play. The initial phase of the plan called for defensive missiles to be placed in California and Alaska.

Despite pressure from the White House, Prime Minister Paul Martin, who had repeatedly expressed support previously, announced almost a year ago that Canada would not take part in the program, which has been unpopular among Canadians.

The decision led U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to postpone a visit to Ottawa.

In their platform unveiled earlier this week, the Liberals said they would seek an international deal to ban weapons in space.

Also yesterday, Harper jettisoned a B.C. Tory candidate who is facing a smuggling charge.

Harper, 46, called the Kyoto treaty, aimed at combating climate change, unworkable and unachievable.

Instead, a Conservative government would set its own targets for reducing Canadian levels of greenhouse-gas emissions, Harper said during a campaign stop in Atlantic Canada.

"The Kyoto accord will not succeed at achieving its objectives and this government — the Canadian government — cannot achieve its objectives."

But he stopped short of saying Canada should pull out of the international treaty to reduce greenhouse gases.

"What we're obviously going to do is proceed with what we can do in developing a real plan in collaboration with our provinces. I think that's the only realistic way of proceeding," he said.

Harper said he favours an agreement that includes all the biggest polluting countries such as the United States, which is sitting out the Kyoto process.

"The government of Canada has never had a plan to achieve the objectives under this accord," said Harper, who is to unveil the Tory election platform this morning in Oakville. "I can tell you a government I lead will not sign international agreements just for a photo op with no intention of pursuing them. That's something the present government has to answer for."

Environment Minister Stéphane Dion said yesterday that abandoning the Kyoto protocol and its targets for emission cuts would put a big smile on U.S. President George W. Bush's face but would be "a tragedy" for Canada and the world. "Canada has been a champion on climate change," Dion told the Star's Peter Gorrie in a telephone interview. "I want Canadians to be well aware of what's at stake. We're deciding something very fundamental in this campaign."

Also yesterday, in comments bound to upset aboriginal groups, Harper stopped short of endorsing the $5 billion strategy to improve the lives of natives, struck by Martin in a meeting with premiers and community leaders.

While Harper said he supported the spirit of the deal to invest in health care, housing and education, he refused to commit to its big price tag.

"In terms of details and budgets, we're going to want to develop our own plans in consultation with the provinces and with native organizations," he said.

He did add that a Tory government would honour the multi-billion-dollar agreement to compensate victims of residential schools abuse.

The Conservative leader brought his surging campaign to Etobicoke last night where he predicted the Jan. 23 vote would send high-profile Liberal candidate — and university professor — Michael Ignatieff "back to Harvard."

"We're going to remind the Liberals that in Toronto, the Maple Leafs are blue and we're going to paint west Toronto blue on election night," he told about 300 people.

He sparked applause with his strong condemnation of the "plague of guns, gangs and drugs" that has claimed dozens of lives in Toronto over the past year.

"That's not the Toronto I grew up in, that's not the Toronto any of you should have to live in. We should never accept that," said Harper, who has proposed tougher sentences, more police and a crackdown on illegal guns.

It's expected that the Tory platform will highlight proposals already made public, such as a GST cut, a beefed-up military and child-care funding for parents. But it's also expected to tally the cost of the promises, and deal with Liberal allegations that the proposals will plunge the country back into deficit.

Harper moved decisively earlier in the day to quell a controversy, dumping a candidate who had misled the party over smuggling charges.

Party officials had initially backed Derek Zeisman, charged by Canada Customs in July 2004, with attempting to smuggle into the country a 1989 Mercedes-Benz and 112 containers of alcohol.

But Harper, clearly mindful of his party's attacks on Liberal ethics and police probes, called the charges "serious" and took a tougher stand yesterday. "This candidate will not ... be sitting as a Conservative should he be elected. He'll have to get this matter resolved," said Harper, who says he only found out Wednesday about the charges.

In a newspaper interview, Zeisman insisted the party knew of the charges. National campaign officials denied that.

With the election less than two weeks away, Harper said it's too late to pull Zeisman's name off the ballot or replace him in the riding of British Columbia Southern Interior.

With files from Canadian Press
_________________________________________________

So, perhaps the "fears" aren't all that unfounded afterall. I distinctly recall Harper saying that Canada will committ to Kyoto just a month or two ago. I guess the possiblity of a majority government means letting the real policy platform out becomes an option.

AoD
 
This will be interesting to see how public opinion reacts to this announcement. This very much smells of the kind of Conservative policy that had many people turned away from them in the first place. But, have peoples frustration over the Liberals risen to a level that even 'old' Harper has a chance at winning? At the very least, I could see this shifting a few votes over to the Liberals again and keeping the Conservatives out of majority territory.

Edit: And the official word that the Conservatives will turn back Kyoto.

------------------------------------------------------------

Tories would turn back Kyoto
Last Updated Fri, 13 Jan 2006 07:58:45 EST
CBC News
A Conservative government would abandon the Kyoto accord and set new Canadian-made targets that are easier to meet, leader Stephen Harper said Thursday in Halifax.

Harper said Kyoto's emission targets couldn't be met within Canada or even internationally. He pointed to the country's woeful record on climate change since the agreement was signed in 1997.

"The Kyoto accord will not succeed at achieving its objectives and this government, the Canadian government, cannot achieve its objectives," Harper said while campaigning for the Jan. 23 election.

The Tory plan to cut emissions would begin with consultations with the provinces to create a made-in-Canada solution, something the Liberals under Jean Chrétien should have done before signing the Kyoto deal, said Harper.

"The Liberal government signed an international agreement that touches on provincial jurisdiction, without consulting the provinces," he said. "The result is that the government was incapable, and remains incapable, of meeting its obligations."

Kyoto calls for a six per cent cut in emissions from 1990 levels by 2012. However, Canadian levels have actually risen about 24 per cent since 1990. The United States, which never ratified the accord, has a better record than Canada.

Harper said any international treaty negotiated in the future would have to include the world's largest polluters: the United States, China and India.
 
Haven't the Americans reduced emissions more than we have without signing Kyoto? I'm guessing this would be Harper's line of argument.
 
fiendish:

No doubt - though I don't know the context of the decrease in the rate of emissions increase in US. Deindustrialization, perhaps? One does have to wonder where the huge increase of emissions came from in Canada. I suspect it has to do with fuel-extraction in particular.

AoD
 
Antiloop:

Harper is not necessarily wrong to say that Liberals paid only lip service to Kyoto. That being said, this flip-flop does point to the strength of the Reform wing of the Conservative party over the policy agenda.

Walking away from a signed agreement would make people think twice, though at the end of the day, I suspect Kyoto is one of these rather nebulous "feel good" issues that no body really cares.

AoD
 
Alvin:

The Liberal record does speak for itself and I would tend to agree that their signing of it was good PR for Canadians in the eyes of the world, and little more.

That being said, I do think there are enough Canadians out there who do care about Kyoto enough that aside from not wanting to see it cancelled, they do want some sort of action. If you combine NDP, Green, and Bloc voters alone you get roughly 35% of voters who opt for parties that are strongly commited to Kyoto. And while not all Liberals may be strongly in favor of Kyoto, it is part of their platform and one can assume that at least a good percentage of their voters are also in favor as well.
 
I suspect it has to do with fuel-extraction in particular.

I think this is the single biggest factor that isnt directly related to general growth in population and increase in pollution from individual consumption and support systems (ie industries producing the items they need). While it has hard to find specific numbers on emmisions due to tar sands operation once one remembers that they do extract much of the oil by burning natural gas, plus all the support systems. Numbers involving emmisions though can be vary a lot though. In the US for example, the states Harper quotes dont also point out to a dramatic rise in Mercury and Lead emmisions in the United States, as well as rises in other particular substances. Stats on pollution and emmision can easily be manipulated by grabbing whatever study including whatever testing procedure best suits you.

Kyoto is very much despised in the West, where, not surprisingly, the strongest Conservative base is. Killing Kyoto, VIA, and more rub and tugs for the Americans seem not to be ways to neccesarily gain support in the rest of the country, but to reward long time supporters.
 
- Pulling out of Kyoto
- Missle Defence
- Free vote in the house on Gay Marriage

... Starting to look like a Bush campaign. How long till we help clean up the mess in Iraq and become the next hot target of Al Qaeda? Maybe we will get rid of the theory of evolution in schools.
 
Well, the only good news here is that, with this much confidence, Harper or his candidates are going to start saying some really nasty right-wing stuff. Not being able to keep the Western crazies' mouths shut has killed the Tories before, and hopefully it can do some damage again and (at least) hold them to a minority.

Other thing to keep in mind, for those of us (like me) who get our info from the Globe and Mail, is that they are using only polling numbers from Strategic Counsel--which is a Tory shop, run by a well-known Conservative partisan, Alan Gregg. Things aren't quite as dire for the Liberals as he has been giddily suggesting. This is part of a general tendency for the Globe to be really nasty, and unfair, toward the Liberals--one that makes me thankful that the Star still has about triple the circulation, especially in 905.
 
Tony Blair more or less pronounced Kyoto dead a few months ago. Everyone knows that Canada isn't anywhere near compliance with this treaty and Harper is just pointing out the obvious.


No cuts to social programs: Harper
Billion more in transfers to the provinces pledged by Conservative leader
Jan. 13, 2006. 11:55 AM
CANADIAN PRESS


Stephen Harper said today in Oakville that a Conservative government would not cut any social programs and would provide billions more in transfer payments to the provinces.
In announcing his final fiscal package of the election campaign, the Conservative leader said Canadians can expect $30 billion in new spending from the Conservatives over the next five years alongside $45 billion in tax breaks.

Most of the party’s tax breaks have already been announced, but Harper threw in a new one: elimination of the capital-gains tax for individuals and companies who reinvest the money within six months.

“Our intention is to remove capital gains on reinvestments,†Harper said in a lengthy speech to a huge gathering of party faithful.

“This will allow those who sell family enterprises to avoid taking a hit and it will keep longer-term investors focused on longer-term gains.â€

Altogether, the Tories would spend $171.6 billion in the next fiscal year, just a billion dollars less than Harper said the Liberals would spend.

And after five years, federal spending would climb to $198.8 billion, about $7 billion less than the projected Liberal platform, he said.

“All of these things have been carefully considered and fully budgeted; we’ve worked on them for months,†Harper said.

“We worked hard on them because we are asking the people of Canada to trust us with their money, to trust us with the results of their own hard work.â€

Monte Solberg, touted as finance minister in any Tory government, said Canadians can be assured the party does not plan cuts to social programs.

“Spending continues to go up,†he said. “There will be no cuts. . . . We will protect the social safety net.â€

Harper also said he would introduce a new Clean Air Act, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and is promising a $500-million investment over five years in university-based research. Foreign aid would increase $425 million over five years.

Harper also promised fixed election dates.

The platform calls for a cap on the growth of federal spending each year, limited to the rate of inflation and the increase in population.

The only exceptions would be the Indian Affairs and Defence departments, which can expect higher increases, but no department would have cuts to spending.

A Harper government would also maintain planned increases in employment insurance benefits, seniors benefits, and scheduled transfers to the provinces for things like health care and equalization.

At the same time, a Tory government would begin negotiations with the provinces to add another $22.7 billion to those transfers over the next five years, based on expected federal surpluses.
 
The Globe getting giddy about a Conservative win (I refuse to call them Tories) can only be a good thing in a way, as it just might swing things back a bit. I also haven't heard of any new poll results in the past few days either.

I had the sense that for a while, the Globe went a bit toward the centre, and has since gone right-business again (such as something like four lead editorials in as many months calling for higher tuition fees). Meanwhile Macleans seems to be trying to fill the void left by Alberta Report with its new right-wing stance on its front covers.
 
the americans haven't reduced their emissions precisely so much as they haven't allowed them to increase as much as we have.
 

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