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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

I know signs don't mean everything, but I was in Judy Sgro's ward yesterday and the NDP candidate actually had a decent presence.

Maybe the NDP can pull this off?

I'm wondering how the NDP won in Alberta, were they polling well leading up to the election?
 
^^

p5LqKUQ.jpg
 
Thanks. That's interesting.

Looks like the NDP still have a chance now that the Conservatives parties combined.
 
I'm really dreading a slim Ford majority, something like 65 PC/55 NDP/4 LB (where you need 63 seats for a majority), yet the NDP receives the largest percentage of the vote.

On the other hand, this could be the final straw for the first-past-the-post system and really rally progressives around electoral reform.
 
Northern Light said:
Forum Poll Out:

NDP 47
PC 33
Lib 14
Grn 4

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/25/ndp-surges-ahead-in-poll.html

Wow, can't say I saw that coming. I'm certainly in the 'Not Ford' camp. But the NDP has never even dreamed of a number like that.

Can they hold it?
Click to expand...

The Forum poll looks like a junk poll to me. This is their pre-weighted numbers (n = 906): 342 PC, 307 NDP, 143 Liberal. That's quite the weighting they've done!

The general picture - NDP surge and Liberal catastrophic collapse - may be correct, but I would put very little faith in this poll specifically (NDP at 57% in SW Ontario???)
 
narduch said:
I know signs don't mean everything, but I was in Judy Sgro's ward yesterday and the NDP candidate actually had a decent presence.

Maybe the NDP can pull this off?

I'm wondering how the NDP won in Alberta, were they polling well leading up to the election?
Click to expand...

York West is pretty low hanging fruit. The NDP got close to 40% in 2014 there.
 
Northern Light said:
Can they hold it?
Click to expand...
The release of the dirt on Ford has been timed to maximize the damage. I suspect the salvos were planned to keep him pinned down for the next two weeks, and there's more to come.

mjl08 said:
On the other hand, this could be the final straw for the first-past-the-post system and really rally progressives around electoral reform.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't count on it. Just as the 'victors write history', so do the 'winners keep all', and any thought that the NDP are any different is naive.

Make no mistake, I want Ford to go down hard, but Horwath is hardly an intellectual/academic altruist steeped in fairness. She's the least bad option, and hopefully her team have input on her decisions.
 
steveintoronto said:
The release of the dirt on Ford has been timed to maximize the damage. I suspect the salvos were planned to keep him pinned down for the next two weeks, and there's more to come.
Click to expand...

The hilarious thing is that its the Liberals that keep digging up these 'scandals' but it is benefiting the NDP.

The one from yesterday was a bit of a head scratcher, because I know anecdotally that ALL parties do that. Its one of dirty secrets of politics in this country. I think it actually shows the desperation of the Liberals that they brought that up.
 
Given the sorry state of government in Ontario at present the NDP don't look all that crazy even to me (will be voting PC); However, I think it highly probable that the next four years will see Ontario heading into a possibly serious recession. It's at that point that people will remember, amid the credit downgrades etc. that fiscal mismanagement during good times is different than fiscal mismanagement during bad times. Tweaking income tax rates for a few high income earners isn't going to solve the 30 billion dollar budget holes that will open up even without the new spend promises all the parties are handing out like candy. No party seems to care about this in their platform (well the PC's don't really have a platform).
 
narduch said:
The hilarious thing is that its the Liberals that keep digging up these 'scandals' but it is benefiting the NDP.

The one from yesterday was a bit of a head scratcher, because I know anecdotally that ALL parties do that. Its one of dirty secrets of politics in this country. I think it actually shows the desperation of the Liberals that they brought that up.
Click to expand...
Hilarious? Oh ya, a big ole Kool Aid OH YA! the Libs have decided that as long as the PCs don't win they have eeked out some sort of win.
 
JWBF said:
Hilarious? Oh ya, a big ole Kool Aid OH YA! the Libs have decided that as long as the PCs don't win they have eeked out some sort of win.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's the case. I think the Liberals arrogantly think this is to their own benefit. They don't give a fuck about the NDP. They would probably prefer if the Conservatives win, they are frightened by the NDP winning and actually doing a good job (its not impossible).
 
JWBF said:
Numbers? Meh. It's the trends that are more than interesting. PCs go from a Super Majority (by numbers) to luck if they get a Minority.

Pass the popcorn.
Click to expand...

I think the only thing that is becoming more and more certain is a Liberal decimation.

I still do think the final result is totally up in the air. But its between the NDP and Conservatives.
 
narduch said:
The hilarious thing is that its the Liberals that keep digging up these 'scandals' but it is benefiting the NDP.

The one from yesterday was a bit of a head scratcher, because I know anecdotally that ALL parties do that. Its one of dirty secrets of politics in this country. I think it actually shows the desperation of the Liberals that they brought that up.
Click to expand...
Frankly my Dear, who cares? If Ford wants to play the 'righteous card', then let him drown in his own vomit.
narduch said:
I don't think that's the case. I think the Liberals arrogantly think this is to their own benefit. They don't give a fuck about the NDP. They would probably prefer if the Conservatives win, they are frightened by the NDP winning and actually doing a good job (its not impossible).
Click to expand...
I think otherwise. And this is all about opinion at this juncture, is it not?

There's still the massive spectre of *coalition* that looms ever larger, and claims by yourself and others on (gist) "PCs will still win" makes the likelihood ever more as the NDP surge increases.

Advanced Symbolics' projection shows possibility of just one Lib seat. I suspect it will be more than that, albeit still a rout, and who are the most likely to coalesce than the Libs and NDP? No-one wants to sit with Ford, let alone be in the same room with him. Including his own party executive.

They hired a thug as their get-away driver, and he not only keeps getting flats, he's bent the rims, stripped the tranny and keeps shooting innocent by-standers.
 
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