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2025 NDP Federal Leadership Race

narduch said:
That's all in the past though. His punditry on CTV is an absolute joke. Dude is living off on past glories and making an assist of himself on CTV.

Of course all the right-centrists love him for that now though.
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I don't typically watch punditry, so I can't speak to that in an informed way.

I will say, given Avi's role in Mulcaire's downfall, it would not surprise me if he bore a grudge.
 
Northern Light said:
This part I agree with..............



This bit is more problematic. The Orange wave was first and foremost a Quebec phenomenon.

While Mulcaire built the machine that made it possible, the turn in the polls for the NDP in Quebec can be clearly tied to Jack Layton's appearance on Tous Le Monde En Parle. (A highly watched prime time talk show in Quebec).

Layton charmed the host and the audience, and that began the momentum.
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And also keep in mind re it being more of a "Jack" thing than a Mulcair thing per se that under Mulcair's leadership in '15, the NDP went from 60+ seats in QC to 16 seats--a tally which might have been halved again had the election been a week longer, as it captured a moment in free fall (thus a lot of those who survived the '15 debacle were practically accidental survivors among the walking wounded).

True, Mulcair was a symbol of the party taking QC seriously at long last; but there was always an element of the fragile, unreal, and "conditional" about the Orange Crush. Though the consolation is that *something* stuck around, i.e. the party's now genuinely viable in inner-urban Montreal in the same way that it's traditionally been in Toronto, a concept which would have been laughable a generation or two ago. (Of course, I'm treating '25 as an all-around exception to "viability"--but the ghost thereof remained evident)
 
adma said:
And also keep in mind re it being more of a "Jack" thing than a Mulcair thing per se that under Mulcair's leadership in '15, the NDP went from 60+ seats in QC to 16 seats--a tally which might have been halved again had the election been a week longer, as it captured a moment in free fall (thus a lot of those who survived the '15 debacle were practically accidental survivors among the walking wounded).

True, Mulcair was a symbol of the party taking QC seriously at long last; but there was always an element of the fragile, unreal, and "conditional" about the Orange Crush. Though the consolation is that *something* stuck around, i.e. the party's now genuinely viable in inner-urban Montreal in the same way that it's traditionally been in Toronto, a concept which would have been laughable a generation or two ago. (Of course, I'm treating '25 as an all-around exception to "viability"--but the ghost thereof remained evident)
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The orange crush was just Quebec voters being disgusted with the LPC and finding the NDP a safe and genial place to park their protest vote vs the BQ.
 
afransen said:
The orange crush was just Quebec voters being disgusted with the LPC and finding the NDP a safe and genial place to park their protest vote vs the BQ.
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Except that the BQ was, in the end, where most of that NDP vote came from. Quebec voters had already been veering away from the Libs since the sponsorship scandal raised its ugly head in the mid-00's--what the Orange Crush *really* marked was a spontaneous consignment of Gilles Duceppe to Flintstones-drawing-a-square "yesterday's man" status, scraping by with only 4 seats (fewer than even the Iggy Libs managed to hang on to in QC).

In effect, the Orange Crush represented, by and large, the "floating Francophone" regionalist demographic that was last monolithically Liberal during the PET years--it went Tory during the Mulroney years, then it went Bloc from 1993-2011, and slowly re-Bloc'd itself post-2015 (though today's Bloc remains more rural/exurban in nature than the pre-2011 Bloc was)
 
picard102 said:
That's all Mulcair does. He's an angry baby who's upset he didn't appeal to voters.
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He did give the party one of its best election results ever though. Yet, they still turfed him!

Regardless, I think Avi will be a relatively effective leader, but it'll take a few cycles. He'll never be PM, but could enter a Broadbent level of success.
 
If he can hold the balance of power in a minority and get the Liberals to move on thing that will actually help people instead of corporations and the 1% then that's good enough for me.
 
JasonParis said:
He did give the party one of its best election results ever though. Yet, they still turfed him!
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Mulcair *did*, technically; but somewhat by default as the long tail of the Orange Crush, which was really more a case of political stunting than anything. And one might argue that said "one of its best election results ever" was but a snapshot moment in free-fall from giddy heights, fueled mainly by "ones that got away" in QC and other jurisdictions where the Libs were still too weak as an alternative to the rejected Cons (like Vancouver Island).

One might wonder, though, how the NDP might have done in '15 under a QC-based leader who wasn't as technocratic as Mulcair--like, say, Boulerice, or a "Steven Guilbeault Liberal" sort (and that's particularly in light of the sleeper fact that the party actually *has* retained surprising broad support in urban Montreal post-Mulcair)
 
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