^Both Woodstock and Brantford deserve the same kind of station investment that has been made further east at Cobourg and Belleville. I doubt that either CN or VIA would be comfortable with a second platform without a pedestrian overpass or underpass. I agree that putting the Sarnia service on the Brantford route and fixing the “weaving” would at least give better service.
Yes it goes without saying that a new platform would be accompanied by a new pedestrian overpass or underpass. If it's an overpass it could even be extended over to Main Street which runs along the north side of the station, cutting the walking distance to the station from the city centre.
The key to improving service on the north line - and at this point I don’t care who runs it, so your suggestion that VIA withdraw is quite palatable - is passing capacity. While ML may be using its funding wisely, by starting with tackling bridges and crossings and track east of Kitchener, those sidings are an urgent prerequisite to getting things right. I sure hope we see shovels go in the ground on these this spring.
What the Kitchener-Stratford-London line needs is 4-5 runs each way spaced out over the day. As you noted, a departure out of Toronto as early in the AM as possible is the start of that. (The fact that it can’t be run west of Georgetown earlier than 09:42 demonstrates the siding problem).
I doubt that VIA would withdraw, no matter how rational a solution that might be…. too much political ammunition if they folded their flag, even if it produced better interim service.
I disagree that the first order of business is to build passing sidings west of Kitchener. The location of passing sidings is dependent on the travel times and headways, and with the a 60-minute headway currently being locked in due to the sidings under construction east of Kitchener, any sidings west of Kitchener will lock in the travel times at the time of their construction.
My opinion is that the first order of business is to upgrade the track speeds. My suggestion is to continue westwards with the same work that GO is currently doing between Kitchener and Georgetown - including both sidings and track upgrades in one project so that the sidings end up in the right places. To expedite visible results, it could be done in phases starting with Kitchener-Stratford once GO acquires the line from CN.
Furthermore, the frequency possible on the line is also strongly affected by the line speed. In the absence of any passing sidings, the current 2h10 London-Kitchener travel time translates to a minimum two-way headway of 4h20. With the 1976 travel time of 1h13, that headway would drop to 2h26. Of course we wouldn't fix the tracks up to that extent without building any sidings, but the point is sidings alone are not the most helpful.
The good news is that once the new sidings in Guelph and Acton come online (Summer 2023), the massive gaps in counter-peak service could disappear, which already goes a long way to increase the possible London-KW-Toronto frequency. The first westbound train to London could depart Union as early as 07:15, arriving in Kitchener around 08:30 after the last eastbound AM London train, and arriving London around 10:30.
What this route needs is an integrated business case and service plan… you know, the kind where federal and provincial people get in a room together, take off their hats, and works together to find the best solution without regard to politics or level of government.. Only then will we know just how much investment is required, and where. I’m not sure we will ever see that train arrive.
This is exactly what the line needs, especially given how current investments could lock in future conditions as I described above. At the moment the situation west of Kitchener seems to consist mostly of value signalling from politicians, but hopefully the federal and provincial governments' statements about VIA and GO working together to create a plan for Southwestern Ontario passenger rail actually translate to a serious initiative.
