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2018 Municipal Election: Toronto Council Races

How many non-incumbent winners will there be on council?

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
mjl08 said:
Who has the advantage in the Bailao vs Palacio race? A lot of left wing councillors like Joe Cressy are throwing their support for Bailao, and I imagine Progress Toronto and the labour unions will too. However, it looks like Palacio has the home advantage as more of his old ward is in the new riding than Bailao's old ward.

Palacio has thwarted a lot of strong contenders in the past, so I wouldn't put it past him winning by a nose again.
Click to expand...
In the 47 ward model Palacio had the geographical advantage however, when Doug ford changes the ward boundaries it is possible the boundaries will shift significantly.
 
mjl08 said:
Who has the advantage in the Bailao vs Palacio race? A lot of left wing councillors like Joe Cressy are throwing their support for Bailao, and I imagine Progress Toronto and the labour unions will too. However, it looks like Palacio has the home advantage as more of his old ward is in the new riding than Bailao's old ward.

Palacio has thwarted a lot of strong contenders in the past, so I wouldn't put it past him winning by a nose again.
Click to expand...

I think I mentioned this here before... But yeah, if we're sticking with the 47-ward setup, then Palacio would have some more home-court advantage. But going with the Fed/Prov riding setup being imposed by the Province, then it should be pretty even, as it will basically be both Davenport wards glued together.

In his previous election wins, Palacio wasn't up against another incumbent, though Bravo and Schein were pretty strong local activists. There's quite a bit of "Oh god no, not Palacio!" happening in my section of Davenport (Ward 18 - Bailao) right now. I honestly have not heard a single good thing said about Palacio, except from his campaign material. Even people who don't necessarily *love* Bailao seem to be expressing their preferences towards her. Bailao also doesn't have to compete against strong more-progressive forces this time (Alex Mazer, Kevin Beaulieu....)

I would probably put my money on Ana Bailao. My vote is almost certainly going to here too, unless something really crazy happens.
 
Allandale25 said:
Interesting analysis, thanks for sharing. If the 30% design number for the Scarborough Subway Extension (SSE) leaks out (and I realize it's a big "if" but reporters are trying), would that give any of those GDB pro-subway voters any second thoughts? Or has he done such a good job convincing these folks they "deserve" a subway (even if they won't use it and are car drivers) that nothing will change their minds? In other words, would any of them be open to Ainslie's message that a more cost effective alternative to the SSE is the better choice and he's that champion?
Click to expand...
There are a large % of the population that want subway at any cost. But I mean if numbers come out that are significantly higher it may sway some people.

My opinion is that people hoping for a large cost increase to can the Subway are going to be disappointed since I believe the current cost estimate is already really high compared to even the Vaughan Subway extension I do not realistically see it getting higher.
 
Thorns_Embrace said:
In the 47 ward model Palacio had the geographical advantage however, when Doug ford changes the ward boundaries it is possible the boundaries will shift significantly.
Click to expand...
Well, yes! If (or when?) we move from 43 to 47 to 25 Wards and the 25 Ward model ones are based on the Federal constituencies I think it's safe to say the boundaries WILL change!
 
DSC said:
Well, yes! If (or when?) we move from 43 to 47 to 25 Wards and the 25 Ward model ones are based on the Federal constituencies I think it's safe to say the boundaries WILL change!
Click to expand...
Allow me to rephrase what I said. If/when the boundaries shift the ward will not have the same boundaries, which means that the "home field advantage" that exists for palacio may not exist.
 
Allandale25 said:
Latest from this ward
Click to expand...

This gets me to thinking. If they are planning to change the ward boundaries before the election.. how late is too late? Obviously they have to print ballots and you cannot print out millions of ballots a week before the election.
 
Richard White said:
This gets me to thinking. If they are planning to change the ward boundaries before the election.. how late is too late? Obviously they have to print ballots and you cannot print out millions of ballots a week before the election.
Click to expand...
As a guide, I would look at the Provincial election where the campaign period is 28 calendar days. And candidates have about a week to enter - so about 3 weeks are needed to print up ballots.
 
BurlOak said:
As a guide, I would look at the Provincial election where the campaign period is 28 calendar days. And candidates have about a week to enter - so about 3 weeks are needed to print up ballots.
Click to expand...
I doubt that the ballot printing is the main problem. It will be extremely hard to prepare accurate voters' lists. They have now (I assume) got lists for the (current) 47 Ward model but these will need to be assigned to the new 25 and that will not be easy. No doubt there are some of the 47 Wards that will be completely within a new 25 ward one so all voters in Old Ward XX will be in New Ward YY but certainly not all are so simple. Then they need to see if the polling stations are located properly and then tell voters which polling station they should use. (This does not even get into the election expenses stuff: will the '2 elections' be seen as quite separate with the 47-ward one being "closed" and all registered candidates in it will have to submit 'election expenses". Will all candidates need to re-register and if they were a 47-Ward candidate running in the 25 Ward election will they start their spending cap and record keeping again or ????? Frankly it's a mess and I honestly doubt it is possible to do in the time available.
 
DSC said:
I doubt that the ballot printing is the main problem. It will be extremely hard to prepare accurate voters' lists. They have now (I assume) got lists for the (current) 47 Ward model but these will need to be assigned to the new 25 and that will not be easy. No doubt there are some of the 47 Wards that will be completely within a new 25 ward one so all voters in Old Ward XX will be in New Ward YY but certainly not all are so simple. Then they need to see if the polling stations are located properly and then tell voters which polling station they should use. (This does not even get into the election expenses stuff: will the '2 elections' be seen as quite separate with the 47-ward one being "closed" and all registered candidates in it will have to submit 'election expenses". Will all candidates need to re-register and if they were a 47-Ward candidate running in the 25 Ward election will they start their spending cap and record keeping again or ????? Frankly it's a mess and I honestly doubt it is possible to do in the time available.
Click to expand...

The logistics of this will easily eat up the 'savings'.

But it's not about the savings . It's about sticking it to the left .
 
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