2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[Hopkins123]

If by "land area divisions" you're talking about polling stations, even that's not true.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/

Check out the interactive map for St Paul's in 2014. Out of 205 polling stations, only 14 went PC. It's just that those 14 have *large* polling boundaries, being as they are in low-density neighbourhoods...

Okay, I concede. Seems the real issue here is Tory support is divided between two ridings (St Paul's and Eglinton-Lawrence). The whole area bound from St Clair to the 401 between the Allen/Cedarvale Ravine and Avenue Rd looks solidly blue.

 

[King of Kensington]

Even with the perfect vote-split, the PCs would have to greatly expand their pretty consistent electoral base of 11,000-12,000 in St. Paul's significantly to eke out a win. Somehow I don't see Ford expanding the base there.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Ok, I only jokingly played devil's advocate for something that didn't make sense. You folks can stop quoting me now.

The point has now been made from so many angles that it's dead.

 

[TrickyRicky]

You don't here too much about environmental issues from the Ontario Liberals at the moment because it's a vote loser at the moment. In a Globe and Mail article this morning it mentioned that polling indicates over 70% of Ontario respondents feel that Carbon taxes are a government tax grab and will do little to improve the environment. That includes almost 70% of self-identified Liberal voters. As I mentioned previously I feel, rising gas prices are going to sway a lot of last minute voters opinions outside of Toronto.

 

[steveintoronto]

@steveintoronto said that French-immersion teachers are poorly paid.

Best I qualify that, and I'll find a reference later: Not well paid *for the workload*. Again, I'll look for reference later, but from what I'm told by teacher friends, the French speaking one being the best reference on this (She's one of Celine Dion's many cousins), unbeknownst to many, they are actually paid by the hour...the contract presupposing how many hours are assigned to teaching the course(s). In many cases, not least due to poor and ineffective (sometimes malicious, I hear some horrific stories of backstabbing) administration, the workload is much higher than what's been contracted for, thus in her case, becoming a school librarian. The workload is *usually* much more predictable and closer to the contract's terms.

They were all under the same contract as far as I could tell.

Not the case, evidently, as I've been told a number of times. This also debases the presumption that teachers have a 'paid holiday' during the Summer and other breaks. They don't. If they work through those breaks, that's a separate contract.

Must run, but will detail and reference this later.

Edit to Add: "Prep Time" is one of the most contentious aspects of teaching a course like French Immersion. This was the main reason my friend had buckled under her workload. It also got to the point that the (I forget the exact term)..."Prep Material" was so poor, she ended up buying books and material out of her own pocket. She cared too much, and there's no reward for that in today's back-stabbing system that produces corporate climbers rather than altruists.

See here:
https://www.ctf-fce.ca/Research-Library/TeacherPrepTime.pdf

 

[animatronic]

So... if anyone's holding onto some juicy Ford oppo, now would be a good time to drop it... We haven't heard anything other than the Greenbelt flip-flop, which is a bit of a concern. If there is something big brewing there's certainly no sign of it.

 

[narduch]

You don't here too much about environmental issues from the Ontario Liberals at the moment because it's a vote loser at the moment. In a Globe and Mail article this morning it mentioned that polling indicates over 70% of Ontario respondents feel that Carbon taxes are a government tax grab and will do little to improve the environment. That includes almost 70% of self-identified Liberal voters. As I mentioned previously I feel, rising gas prices are going to sway a lot of last minute voters opinions outside of Toronto.

It feels like the Liberals are bungling this campaign.

Take for example the Hydro One news from yesterday. They are handing Ford the election and playing right into his hands.

 

[King of Kensington]

The way things are headed the Liberals will be shut out of the 905 and they'll likely be in third place in terms of seat count (if not popular vote) in the 416. Can a strong showing for the NDP in Toronto, Brampton Southwestern Ontario and the North block a Conservative majority?

 

[jje1000]

Soft endorsement of the NDP by the Star. I think that the Globe, Sun and National Post will go for the Conservatives, the Star will endorse the NDP.

Only one option for anti-Ford voters

And so anti-Ford voters are left with this option: The only way to prevent Ford from becoming premier is to ensure that someone else gets the job instead.

In 2014, enough NDP supporters voted for Wynne’s Liberals to keep Tim Hudak’s Tories from power. But Wynne was a fresh face then and relatively popular. That is no longer the case.

This time, the anti-Tory vote seems to be coalescing around Horwath’s NDP. Can it coalesce enough to keep Ford out of the premier’s chair? That is another question.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/05/15/only-one-option-for-anti-ford-voters.html

Ontario’s largest education union opts to endorse NDP over Liberals

Ontario’s largest education union has abandoned Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals for the first time in more than a decade, withdrawing teacher support after increasingly strained relationships.

Sam Hammond, president of the Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario (ETFO), which represents 81,000 education workers, said on Thursday that his union has endorsed the New Democratic Party and Leader Andrea Horwath.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...tion-union-opts-to-endorse-ndp-over-liberals/

 

[King of Kensington]

The Globe will probably say Conservative minority and dump Ford.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Ford says he'll reduce gas prices by 10 cents per litre by cutting cap-and-trade, fuel tax

Moves would mean billions in lost revenue for Ontario's coffers

See link.

A Progressive Conservative government would reduce gas prices in Ontario by 10 cents per litre by scrapping the province's cap-and-trade program and reducing the provincial fuel tax, Doug Ford said on Wednesday.

Ford did not say, however, how a Tory government would make up for the billions in lost revenue that would result from those changes...

Expect vast service cuts, cuts, cuts, under Doug's proposal.


Genuflect before the almighty automobile, you heathens. The prophet Doug Ford has spoken.

 

[syn]

He'll make up the billions by finding efficiencies! Doesn't the silly CBC know anything?!

 

[King of Kensington]

Ipsos poll vs. 2014 provincial result in Toronto:

NDP 38% 22% +16
PCs 34% 23% +11
Liberals 26% 49% -23

 

[christiesplits]

Ipsos poll vs. 2014 provincial result in Toronto:

NDP 38% 22% +16
PCs 34% 23% +11
Liberals 26% 49% -23

I expect to see quite a few three-way races, especially in Scarborough. The NDP are definitely eyeing Scarborough Southwest, and it would not surprise me if Ford wins everything else east of Vic Park. Even Mitzie Hunter, who runs in the usually solid red Scarborough Guildwood, is vulnerable.

The NDP should pick up Beaches East York, Davenport, Parkdale High Park, York South Weston and maybe Humber Black Creek.

I wonder if Shelley Carroll could surprise with a win in Don Valley North? She is high profile and has none of the 15 year baggage of the Liberal regime.

 

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if Shelley Carroll could surprise with a win in Don Valley North? She is high profile and has none of the 15 year baggage of the Liberal regime.

Shelley picked a bad time to run for the Liberals!