Will Rob Ford Finish His Term? If Not, What Then?

[Tulse]

I don't think he's damaged goods with conservative/right-of-centre voters in Toronto.

They didn't vote for him for mayor in 2003, or for premier, or even for MPP, in 2007. He also lost a provincial by-election in 2009, although that was in Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock.

In other words, the only elected office he's ever held is in the safest conservative seat that he could be parachuted into (when he replaced retiring PC leader Ernie Eves in Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey), and he was only able to hold that for 2 years.

Voters in this part of the province seem profoundly uninterested in electing Tory.

 

[voxpopulicosmicum]

Voters in this part of the province seem profoundly uninterested in electing Tory.

It's so true. Because he doesn't come across as a frothing-at-the-mouth nutbar like Ford or Hudak, I think he falls into a gap where the right-wing nutters aren't motivated to vote for him and there's always someone that voters in the centre/left would rather have.

 

[adma]

And conversely, said nutters are what reflexively downed John Tory in Don Valley East in 2007.

However, I'd advise caution in judging his mayoralty run; after all, that was his true highwater mark--yes, he lost, but he nearly won after coming from well behind, and only really lost because of the residual Lastman stink.

Also, I'd hold off from judging his CFRB show as Fox News-like--in fact, it may be the *least* Fox News-like thing on that station...

 

[Palma]

You're right...without daddy around to hand him things, he's never been actually very good at getting anything on his own. He has a damaged ego, and a sense of entitlement. I liken him to Belinda Stronach...if he can't have the big job...he's going home. I think he would either be scared to lose at yet another election...or mayor is simply a job beneath him.

But I don't think he's damaged goods with conservative/right-of-centre voters in Toronto. And I think a good chunk of the "mushy middle" would consider voting for him. All depends who he was running against.

Question is...will he get tired of pretending to be a politician on that Fox News style talk radio show...or will he want to try again to actually be one?

You have got to be kidding? You should listen to him on his radio show at 1010. I swear he does not sound like a Conservative but more like a liberal and at times NDP. I did not like him before (because he was a Conservative) but it did not take long when I started listening to him that I changed my mind and would vote for him. I think he is terrific. Where you get the idea that he thinks he is entitled is beyond me. I have been listening to him now for over 1 year.

 

[js97]

For a dark horse, what about Michael Bryant? No one can call him a bike riding commie-pinko.

Way too high profile and perhaps slightly out of touch with the outer regions of Toronto. You really need someone from the Boroughs to be able to represent the entire city, and not just Bay street. He would do really well in the old city, but would lose out to Ford in the burbs.

Someone like Colle or Matlow, is what the city will need. (Mary-Margaret McMahon would be also a great candidate)

 

[voxpopulicosmicum]

Way too high profile and perhaps slightly out of touch with the outer regions of Toronto. You really need someone from the Boroughs to be able to represent the entire city, and not just Bay street. He would do really well in the old city, but would lose out to Ford in the burbs.

Someone like Colle or Matlow, is what the city will need. (Mary-Margaret McMahon would be also a great candidate)

He killed a bike courier with his car. Wiped the bike courier off his car with a street sign, driving the wrong way down Bloor. And got away with it. How does that not play well in the 'burbs?

 

[Automation Gallery]

He killed a bike courier with his car. Wiped the bike courier off his car with a street sign, driving the wrong way down Bloor. And got away with it. How does that not play well in the 'burbs?

Gee, such an unfortunate incident..that bike courier should have let go from trying to strangle him while he had a chance...its a shame , he would have still been with us..

 

[voxpopulicosmicum]

I agree, it was an absolute tragedy. Bryant also knows it was tragic.

 

[adma]

Glen Murray making a municipal jump would be more likely than Michael Bryant.

 

[voxpopulicosmicum]

Glen Murray making a municipal jump would be more likely than Michael Bryant.

Yup, but Bryant (having killed a bike courier) would have appeal to a certain suburban demographic, whereas Murray is perceived as decidedly left of centre on many issues (and has never killed a bike courier that we are aware of).

 

[MetroMan]

Things are starting to heat up to a boiling point with Ford's few allies on the TTC making decisions contradictory to the best interest of Torontonians, obvious to even the least politically savvy. He's also thrown yet another ally -- Karen Stintz -- under the bus even after she tried to make conciliatory moves such as voting against council's wishes to use the money council put back to save bus routes. Stintz was so badly embarrassed today that she had to excuse herself from reporters to go cry in her office. Ford has definitely lost her and the goodwill of the Mighty Middle.

He's closing all the escape routes that Stintz, his own executive committee and the rest of council have been trying to give him to save face.

Finally, Ford is also putting Metrolinx and the province itself irreversibly at odds with his administration.

Rob Ford is wedging himself into a tight corner. Is there any strategy here or is he just that stupid?

To the point, members of council and the media are starting to bring up the possibility that city council can take away the Mayor's powers to appoint chairs to committees and members to the executive.

The way this is headed, the topic of this thread is a very real possibility. Even if Ford decides to stay on, he's making it increasingly likely that council will have to neuter his powers in order to allow them to do their jobs. When it comes to 44 councillors being allowed to continue to do their jobs versus the interests of the Mayor, I think that at least two thirds of those councillors will choose their political careers. Even the opportunistic Mommolitti will turn once he realizes that he's on the wrong side and Ford can't help him.

There is no impeachment process for Ontario municipalities but in a weak mayor system, it isn't needed. Council can terminate the Mayor's powers and get the same effect. This is becoming more likely by the day.

If Ford mercifully decides to leave, there would be a by-election. In a by-election, there would not be a year for viability polling or campaigning so it's likely that the candidates would be the leader of the Mighty Middle versus one of Ford's remaining allies.

 

[Jonny5]

Glen Murray making a municipal jump would be more likely than Michael Bryant.

Murray has a comfortable job for life as an MPP now. It's asking a lot to give that up!

 

[Eug]

It's so true. Because he doesn't come across as a frothing-at-the-mouth nutbar like Ford or Hudak, I think he falls into a gap where the right-wing nutters aren't motivated to vote for him and there's always someone that voters in the centre/left would rather have.

Huh? For premier, they didn't vote for him because he came across as a religious nut, with his bizarre plan for seriously expanding government funding of religious schools. Just about everyone, including from the left, the right, and the centre collectively just said, WTF??!?!

With that, John Tory single-handedly defeated himself in the provincial election.

 

[nfitz]

Yup, but Bryant (having killed a bike courier) would have appeal to a certain suburban demographic, whereas Murray is perceived as decidedly left of centre on many issues (and has never killed a bike courier that we are aware of).

Hang on - whether or not the man in question was a bike courier or not isn't an issue here. He was not working when he decided to drive drunk and attack Bryant. I don't see how this issue would have any bearing on the election.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

At least he didn't get elected - and the pot has a history of doing that even in public.

AoD