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Politics: 2014 Provincial Election & Transit Politics

I get a feeling that Wynne backed herself into a corner. I'm really confused by this far left (for big L Liberals) tax-and-spend budget. It's either:

1) Wynne threw a budget Hail Mary in order to get Horvath's and the NDP's support, even though they didn't express interest in supporting them this year.

or

2) Wynne is trying to squeeze out the NDP and take their votes in the inevitable next election by moving much further left into NDP territory. Since the Liberals are so far left now, the NDP becomes superfluous.

I'm thinking the latter, because it was already reasonably clear that Horvath wanted to trigger an election, and Wynne has just announced that they're going reintroduce that budget.

However, the reason I think she's backed herself into a corner is because it seems people are quite taken aback by this budget. The latest polls have PCs now in the lead. Yes, the Liberals have taken some shine off the NDP, but the PCs are the real winners in this Wynne budget fiasco.

Personally I think a smarter move would have been just to move a little bit left to catch those on the right edge of the NDP, while keeping enough of the centre-right voters to win again. Now, it seems that they've moved so far left that a good chunk of the centre-right will move to the PCs instead just to get Wynne out of power.

To put it another way, I think the PCs are sitting pretty, not because of Hudak (whom I don't like), but because of Wynne.
 
Eug said:
I get a feeling that Wynne backed herself into a corner.
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Wynne knew that Horwath wanted to trigger an election. I'm wondering if Wynne was trying to appeal to NDP voters, and create disunity in NDP support, many of whom seem confused and unhappy that the NDP has turned down the most NDP-like budget in near 20 years.

Eug said:
The latest polls have PCs now in the lead.
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The latest poll, was the EKOS poll released this morning, that showed the Liberals in the lead, and the NDP still slipping further into 3rd place.
 
the polls have been really wacky for the last month or so, one poll puts the liberals in a 10 point lead and the next puts the PCs in a 10 point lead. We really need a couple of polls putting out some similar numbers to understand what the numbers really are.

before the bunch of wacky polls though (in March) the Liberals typically held a small lead.
 
Yeah the poll I heard on the radio this morning has the PCs quite a bit ahead. IIRC it was 40-something PC vs 33 Libs vs 20-something NDP.

Edit

I can't find that online, just the EKOS poll so maybe I misheard. Or else heard about one subgroup of those polled
 
Last edited:
Eug said:
Yeah the poll I heard on the radio this morning has the PCs quite a bit ahead. IIRC it was 40-something PC vs 33 Libs vs 20-something NDP.

Edit

I can't find that online, just the EKOS poll so maybe I misheard. Or else heard about one subgroup of those polled
Click to expand...
Poll is here - http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_ontario_may_2_2014.pdf - the only area the Tories scored better than 33% was Ottawa and Eastern Ontario where they got 43%.

That the only poll in a couple of weeks. I expect there'll be a flurry of the soon.
 
Count me among the NDP'ers upset about the budget. I'm a New Democrat (card-carrying member in fact) who really liked this budget and is really peeved that Horwath voted to bring it down. I actually cancelled my monthly donation to the party a few hours ago.
 
The polls I've been seeing have been putting the Liberals and PCs so close that the margin of error makes it a complete toss-up.

That being said, I expect frustrated and disillusioned NDP voters to form an interesting political force in the days to come.
 
Twitter yesterday -

@AndrewTumilty: Horwath rejects a budget her party could have written. Wonder how her base will react? #ONpoli
@SwanBoatSteve: @AndrewTumilty The NDP will never get a donation from me again. Is that plain enough?
 
1overcosc said:
Count me among the NDP'ers upset about the budget. I'm a New Democrat (card-carrying member in fact) who really liked this budget and is really peeved that Horwath voted to bring it down. I actually cancelled my monthly donation to the party a few hours ago.
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But do you actually think just because the budget passed it would be implemented? Like the funding for the Finch LRT and Sheppard LRT which i think was suppose to be up and running this year. Do you see anything on those routes?
 
Palma said:
But do you actually think just because the budget passed it would be implemented? Like the funding for the Finch LRT and Sheppard LRT which i think was suppose to be up and running this year. Do you see anything on those routes?
Click to expand...
Parts of it already have been implemented. Other tax increases would be in place quickly. The funding model for Metrolinx was a huge step. Sure, things will slip and slide.

But do you think the Finch LRT would get built faster if we elect Hudak? They've announced the RFQ for Finch West will be released in a few months ... the ball is rolling, even if late. That dies if Hudak is elected, and even the NDP will end up delaying it even further, and have no $ model.
 
denfromoakvillemilton said:
Hudak should be smart build and Finch West. It's a good project.
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But he's a Conservative - not not the Progressive type.

Good projects for urban Toronto are not on the list of things that are going to happen, if they get in the way of cars. Maybe a subway to help those in 905 get into Toronto. And the only reason DRL will happen is because that's the only way to get more people in 905 down the Yonge line.
 
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