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Ontario election predictions, anyone?

ShonTron said:
I'm not against the intentions behind the credit for hiring new Canadians for professional positions, I think in general it's a good idea. The way the program was pitched was lousy and the optics might have worked to Hudak's advantage, had he seized the issue with more intellect
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Yes, Hudak's response was very odd IMO. McGuinty handed it to him, but Hudak actually managed to turn it into a big plus for the Liberals, whereas a more savvy politician could have ripped it apart.

There's still three weeks to go - a lot can happen. Yet Hudak's not connecting
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This reflects what I was feeling earlier. During the federal and municipal campaigns, it seemed like the PCs were making serious inroads. They were connecting, even if I didn't want them to. Hudak, not so much, despite the early polls.
 
We're 3 weeks away and I think Hudak is screwed, and it's his own fault. I think the Ontario PCs are probably already engaged in some serious infighting.

  • It's damage control time and Hudak's shoring up strategy is transparent, trying to come up with some catchy slogan a la Ford. Presently Hudak is playing to "families who work hard and play by the rules"; that doesn't resonate, too many words. Ford limited his appeal to 3 words.
  • Ford Nation has not come to the aid of Hudak. (In fact, there is an exodus from Ford Nation :) ).
  • If McGuinty doesn't fall into a nasty trap over the next 2 weeks he'll win.
  • One last thing: image. Hudak doesn't have the it thing that gets votes. He hasn't inspired anyone. I can't quite put my finger on what the it thing is, but it just ain't there.
 
The National had a poll last night, I believe it was Ipsos Reid, that has McGuinty up one point over Hudak, quite a change from even a week ago.
 
TonyV said:
We're 3 weeks away and I think Hudak is screwed, and it's his own fault. I think the Ontario PCs are probably already engaged in some serious infighting.

  • It's damage control time and Hudak's shoring up strategy is transparent, trying to come up with some catchy slogan a la Ford. Presently Hudak is playing to "families who work hard and play by the rules"; that doesn't resonate, too many words. Ford limited his appeal to 3 words.
  • Ford Nation has not come to the aid of Hudak. (In fact, there is an exodus from Ford Nation :) ).
  • If McGuinty doesn't fall into a nasty trap over the next 2 weeks he'll win.
  • One last thing: image. Hudak doesn't have the it thing that gets votes. He hasn't inspired anyone. I can't quite put my finger on what the it thing is, but it just ain't there.
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McGuinty doesn't have 'it' either. He's as bland as Becel margarine.
 
Hudak is not being truthful about his plans for a prison work program either, it's been done before with reported problems on the outside and who does Hudak think work in the kitchens of all institutions, work making license plates, do laundry and collect the garbage etc? Prisoners in the provincial prison system already work daily if they meet the requirements and to suggest otherwise is not being truthful.

Same old same old liberal win or maybe not, no difference in any of them.
 
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TonyV said:
Darned strange, isn't it? Yet he has managed to get elected twice. There must be an invisible 'it' factor there.
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McGuinty comes off as bland but relatively nice and trustworthy, while still being someone with own reasonable opinion on things. IOW, he seems like a boring man of substance.

When he has no charismatic leaders against him, that seems to be good enough.
 
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Hudak has stated basically that the gas tax should fund roads and highways instead of transit and that large cities should get less gas tax funding, and he doesn't seem committed to continuing the uploading of health/social service costs. I guess there are too many foreigners living in big cities, and using transit and social services.
 
Pre-campaign, I would have said people were so fed up with McGuinty that the PCs would get in, but you're right, Hudak isn't connecting. So ... do people hold their nose and vote for Dalton again or hold their nose and vote for Hudak? Or do the NDP sneak up the middle (unless memories of the Rae government are still too prevalent)? It's going to be interesting.

I'll predict a minority, just not sure which party yet!
 
OK. Here is my first prediction:

Liberal Minority:

Liberal 45
PC 42
NDP 20
Green 00

I'm predicting that the NDP will double their seats, and that the current Conservative lead in the polls will continue to erode, thus allowing the Liberals to just barely stay in power.
 
PinkLucy said:
... do people hold their nose and vote for Dalton again or hold their nose and vote for Hudak? ... I'll predict a minority, just not sure which party yet!
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Couldn't have said it much better ... it would be quite surprising, at this stage, to see anything other than a minority government. Not sure which party will hold the most seats. Interesting but somewhat unstable times seem to be ahead.
 
I dunno if this is a new ad, but it's the first time I've seen it:

Hudak is pointing out his family's immigrant roots, with the classic grandfather-coming-to-Canada-with-no-money-in-his-pocket-and-working-hard-to-make-a-life-for-himself. The commercial also has one or two visible minorities in it.

P.S. According to Ancestry.ca, McGuinty and Hudak are distant relatives.

cousins.jpg


When a reporter alerted him to the shared ancestor, McGuinty cracked a joke about his Tory rival.

"So you're telling me the last time we were on the same page was in the 1600s? Maybe that explains a few things," he told reporters on Monday.

Hudak also made light of his newfound distant cousin.

"He must be that high-taxing black sheep we've been looking for," he said.
 
The difference between the two responses shows how they're in different leagues in terms of their skills and experience
 
Tonight the Ontario party-leaders’ pre-election debate (CBC, CTV, Global, CHCH, TVOntario, 6:30 p.m.).
 
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