Ontario election predictions, anyone?

Discussion in 'Politics & Diplomacy' started by TonyV, Sep 9, 2011.

  1. TonyV

    TonyV Senior Member

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    Does anyone care to go out on a limb somewhat and predict the outcome of the Ontario election?

    To this point, it has been expected that the PC party would win, and now the latest polls show that the Liberals are closing the gap. Of course, the NDP could perform well, too, and split the left vote.

    I will chuckle as the polls come out. We've all learned how unreliable those are.

    I am predicting a minority Liberal victory.
     
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  2. Eug

    Eug Senior Member

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    Dunno, but I wonder if one of the PC candidates may be fired. Or at least I think he should be fired. He owes some serious back taxes to the CRA.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...puts-hudak-in-an-awkward-spot/article2159754/

    The Progressive Conservatives’ election platform couldn’t be any clearer – the party wants to see “change that guarantees a promising future to every hard-working family that plays by the rules.”

    Which is why Leader Tim Hudak suddenly finds himself in such an awkward position amid revelations that property rights activist and Conservative candidate Randy Hillier hasn’t paid his taxes.

    At a press conference Friday following a speech to the Economic Club of Canada, Mr. Hudak refused to say whether he would continue to support Mr. Hillier even though he is behind on his taxes. Canada Revenue Agency has placed two liens on the candidate’s home, one for $9,017 and another for $5,863.


    For some reason I just never bought into those initial polls. They just didn't sit well with me in terms of what my gut felt about the general public's view of things. I knew that people were getting a bit tired of the Liberals, but right-lean just never felt as "real" as it did with the mayoral campaign in Toronto.

    That or else a PC minority victory, I dunno which.
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2011
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  3. JasonParis

    JasonParis Moderator

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    The latest poll has the Libs polling 11 points ahead with the PC's only five points ahead of the NDP. It could be a rogue poll and it's pretty early, but quite a change from even a month ago.
     
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  4. GenerationW

    GenerationW Senior Member

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    Conservative majority, NDP upsurge, Liberals decimated.

    This is a recording.
     
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  5. GraphicMatt

    GraphicMatt Looking forward to a FRESH START for Toronto

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    I'm thinking either Liberal minority propped up by NDP or straight-up Liberal majority. PCs got played on the immigration stuff this week.
     
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  6. nfitz

    nfitz Superstar

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    PCs didn't get played ... if you start referring to Canadian citizens or even landed immigrants as "foreigners" you've played yourself, and simply revealed your true stripes. It was a bizarre comment - and could have been avoided simply by campaigning that jobs should be for all Canadians, and not just a few.

    How they thought this would play in 905, which is the one place they are looking to make significant gains, I don't know ...

    It's campaigning to the base, and terrifying to anyone in the middle.

    My gosh, even I hadn't realised that Hudak was like this - though the previous lack of information about where he stood troubled me.
     
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  7. js97

    js97 Senior Member

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    How can that policy even be implemented?!?! - with all the anti-discrimination laws out there, isn't this a step backwards?



    McGuinty is one sly politician - but on another note, it will be interesting to see how many of you lose out on a job opportunity to a new immigrant.
     
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  8. abcde

    abcde New Member

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    The idea is rather unimportant, in my opinion. Why Hudak chose to attack it is beyond me and reeks of desperation. The tax credit will cost 16 million dollars - a drop in the bucket for the provincial budget - and provide employers with money to train new Canadians in selected fields - architecture, engineering and something else that I don't quite recall. The policy will encompass only up to 1,600 new Canadians - those who have arrived with professional training acquired in a different country and train them to meet Canadian standards. Thus, no one will lose ANY jobs to a new immigrant - because the tax credit only applies to fields where there is a demand for employees, not a demand for employment.

    I expect the debate will decimate any support Hudak holds at the moment - most sensible people will opt for a third Liberal term or give Andrea a chance.
     
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  9. nfitz

    nfitz Superstar

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    Possibly ... is the leader of the PC party given some kind of ceremonial gun these days, that they use to shoot themselves in the foot?

    It's really bizarre ... there must really be a lack of skilled professionals at Tory headquarters, given the things they come up with at election time, between this, and the "let's fund schools for all religions" promise last time. Perhaps they should give up on those there now, and look outside the country for someone with more skill running a tea party - perhaps they could qualify to hire them under this program and save some $.
     
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  10. lead82

    lead82 Active Member

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    I really hope the Tories do not win either a minority or a majority. Hudak doesn't know a good policy if it slapped him in the face. The trifecta of Tories at all levels will breed corruption and will be devastating to those who don't make 6 figure incomes. I will be voting Liberal as they have the only viable plan for the future.
     
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  11. Eug

    Eug Senior Member

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    I heard the stuff on the radio and from the reports it had sounded like Hudak had made some sort of huge anti-immigrant gaff. So I've been reading a little about it, and while Hudak's response was quite poor, I have to say I don't agree with McGuinty's initiative either. The very specific rules penalize those who have been here for a time and quite frankly seem ill-guided.

    I am not a new immigrant, nor an old one (with old meaning more than 5 years in Canada), but if I were the latter group I would be totally pissed. It essentially adds a new bureaucratic barrier to underemployed immigrants who just happen to have been in Canada for more than 5 years.

    This is a just an unfair vote grab by the Liberals and the gaffe by Hudak is an added bonus for them. I'm sure the Liberals are well aware of the unfairness and the added bureaucratic red tape this introduces, but are going ahead with it anyway in order to win a few votes (even if it means losing some votes from other immigrants).

    I guess the easiest way to summarize this is I am disappointed by both parties by their stance on this issue.
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2011
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  12. ttk77

    ttk77 Active Member

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    The PCs have so far been running this campaign like the Liberals did in the last federal election - all anti-"the other guys" without having any message of their own to stick to. Hudak is also slowly revealing himself to be a very traditional hard-line, right-wing, anti-immigrant conservative.

    Barring any major gaffes on McGuinty's part or a major change in direction by the PCs, I predict another Liberal government. Too early to say if it will be majority or not though.
     
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  13. Jonny5

    Jonny5 Senior Member

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    At this point, Hudak might as well go all out and call Dalton a reptilian kitten eater.

    He needs to replace his campaign manager and senior staff, and I mean now.
     
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  14. dt_toronto_geek

    dt_toronto_geek Superstar

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    Oh I think he's doing just fine thank-you-very-much!

    I'll follow the polls close to the election and vote either Liberal or NDP, whatever party the polls rank higher. Anything to keep the Tories out of Ontario.
     
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  15. ShonTron

    ShonTron Moderator

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    I'm not against the intentions behind the credit for hiring new Canadians for professional positions, I think in general it's a good idea. The way the program was pitched was lousy and the optics might have worked to Hudak's advantage, had he seized the issue with more intellect - it could have been John Tory's religious tax credit again.

    There's still three weeks to go - a lot can happen. Yet Hudak's not connecting, and will be all but shut out from the 416, courtesy of the Fords. I'm going to predict another Liberal government, but also not sure about whether this will be a weak majority or a minority. Hudak will pick up some seats, and I predict Davenport to go NDP, who should pick up 2 or 3 more seats elsewhere too.
     
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