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Canada's next Prime Minister?

Who would win in the Federal Elections?


  • Total voters
    68
  • Poll closed .
wow it shows you how dominant the BLOC are.

Even at 1% of the vote they would still win 24 seats in Quebec... :eek:


Shows you the real lack of energy in the Liberals.

Like Jean Chretien was hard to understand but he was a tough fighter and imo that is something a lot of conservatives do not understand about him. Sure he was like Dion that he never made sense, but he used to give were sharp answers and use to be a very tough man to debate with. When I heard him speak, It made me feel warm about the Liberals. When Dion was on, I was not.

Also he is a grand strategist like Harper.

Harper imo borrowed a lot of Chretien tactics.

-Keep a steady boat
-Don't do anything rash like Trudeau or Mulroney
-paint your oppositions as a bunch of idiots
-make sure your opposition cannot unite behind anything


Now Chretien got lucky that NDP support was 10% and the they could 100 seats in Ontario.

However the Tories are lucky the Greens and NDP and BLOC are taking over 38% of the vote, which is more then what the PC's and Reform use to get combined.
 
it makes no sense how the Liberals kept Mississauga South and lost rather easily in Thornhill and Oak ridges and lose 6000-9000 vote advantages across the 905.


That is a mystery...
 
btw, I chatted with Canada's next prime minister yesterday: Gerard Kennedy.

As for my predictions on Tory inroads into the GTA--I was right.:)

I agree that Kennedy seems to be the natural next choice for the Liberals, and he'll be hopefully nominated in May.
 
it makes no sense how the Liberals kept Mississauga South and lost rather easily in Thornhill and Oak ridges and lose 6000-9000 vote advantages across the 905.


That is a mystery...

No mystery to me. In Thornhill, you've got increasingly religious/right wing (read: Pro-Israeli) Orthodox Jews with decent incomes seeking lower taxes, support for war in Afghanistan, support (or at least sympathy) for private schools, blah blah blah....

Same goes for Oak Ridges==wealthy people (white) that will vote for the winning team.

Mississauga South may be wealthy like Thornhill, but you've got wealth of a more diverse kind, with no common interest. So, Liberals win there.
 
It makes perfect sense why ridings went for the NDP or Conservatives in Ontario and that Dion made no gains in Quebec.

Dion's biggest problem above policy is that he can't connect with people. Its unfortunate, but true.

Second to personality, his policy is just not able to attract a grand coalition across Canada. He put all his eggs into one basket: the environment. In economic times like ours, the environment isn't what people vote on.

Third, Dion is a federalist, and the reason he was found as a compromise in 2006 was because Liberals felt he could bring Quebecers back. His only perceived asset became a huge liability after his nomination because anti-federalist Quebecers still sensitive to sponsorship wanted NOTHING to do with Dion, and middle of the roaders were equally turned off.

But on the contrary, Harper hasn't made any inroads in Quebec either. Picking up a few ridings does not constitute a breakthrough in Quebec, Harper's breakthrough is Ontario. He has turned Ontario a solid shade of blue outside metro Toronto and south of Sudbury.

But that solid shade of blue is based in part on a lot of wins where if the NDP and Liberal and Greens vote wasn't split so badly, it would still be piping hot red Liberal.

Its amazing Harper's government won ridings like Kitchener-Waterloo with such a bare win. The left leaning vote outnumbers his party greatly.

Dion really does have to go. I believe intellectually his plan for a green shift and carbon tax the right thing, but it doesn't sell. He totally abandoned the important issues: economy, health care, Canada in Iraq and Afghanistan. Not once did I hear Dion really parade Chretien and the Liberals' leadership to keep Canada out of Iraq.

Martin even ran a better campaign than Dion, and he resigned after only one real try.

Gerard Kennedy connects with people, he has a personality connection with the base in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Beyond that, he can bring new voices back to the Liberal party and increase vote share in his home in the eastern piraries. I believe he could help in Sask and Manitoba, where he's from originally.
 
Brandon: "Amazing" re:K-W ridings?

No.

Take wealthy white folks that work as Engineers, small business people, software startups etc and mix them with laid-off factory workers or UW employees and what do you get? Splitsville USA.:)

Edit: I should add, K-W is increasingly filled with wealthy entrepreneurs mingling with conservative church goers. When I lived in Waterloo, I was one of the rare folks who never attended any of the local (mostly) Christian churches. That sure made me popular....:)
 
I live right next to the Liberal HQ in the K-W riding. At around midnight last night I checked to see that the office was shut tight...somewhat amusing since the Liberals lost by 73 votes here.
 
I'm going to call bullshit on this one. Strip out the tarsands, and we'll see how bad things look. Now consider whether stopping the development of the tar sands is something <i>any</i> prime minister could accomplish? No offense Kieth, but I don't think this argument is very honest.

Oil Sands production accounts for just over 3% of Canada's GHG emissions, and only about 12% of Alberta's GHG emissions.

And we are not talking climate here, we are talking just GHG production - as there is no link between oil sands and climate change.
 
So much for that "fresh face" stuff.

Knives come out swiftly for Dion

MICHAEL VALPY AND JANE TABER
From Thursday's Globe and Mail
October 15, 2008 at 12:11 AM EDT

TORONTO, OTTAWA — Stéphane Dion will face pressure to declare within days that he will end his troubled leadership of the federal Liberal Party and let the machinery start rolling to replace him, senior party members said yesterday.

With the Liberals' election-day vote blown away like fall leaves, the overwhelming majority of members of the party's parliamentary caucus made clear that Mr. Dion, unlike former leader John Turner, will not get a second chance to lead the Liberals in a campaign, one well-placed party member said.

A torrent of harsh pronouncements rained down on him yesterday, illustrating that politics takes no prisoners. An Atlantic MP said flatly: “We gotta change the sheets.” An Ontario MP referred to Mr. Dion dismissively as the “leader of Toronto” – because that was the party's only bastion of strength after the votes were counted in what used to be a Liberal-red province. The MP said Mr. Dion should quit immediately.

British Columbia's Liberal Premier, Gordon Campbell, said voters in his province clearly were not impressed by Mr. Dion. “We can't underestimate the fact that, frankly, Mr. Dion's leadership did not resonate with British Columbians. [Stephen] Harper's did.”

One well-connected party member suggested wryly that if Mr. Dion, noted for his stubbornness and a tendency not to take counsel from within his party, didn't announce quickly that he is stepping down, the party should move the furniture out of his office.

“How do you do a putsch on a guy who doesn't understand he's being putsched?” he asked. Another influential Liberal, noting this week's early snowfall in Saskatchewan, said Mr. Dion should go there immediately and take a long walk – a reference to Pierre Trudeau's memorable statement that he made his decision to resign as prime minister after going for a long walk in the snow.

Senator David Smith, co-chair of the Liberals' election campaign and the only ranking party member who would speak for attribution, said, “I feel badly about the result.

“I just think everybody wants to be supportive of him through this period because he put up a great fight and everybody has to show respect to him. Obviously, he will be making some decisions. But everybody should just be very respectful and appreciative of what he did. I don't think anybody should rush into anything.”

The Liberals' share of the vote was 26 per cent, down four percentage points from the 2006 election and the worst showing in the party's history. They won 22 fewer seats than they held at dissolution of the last Parliament, making them the only party to show a decline both in popular vote and representation.

Alone among the party leaders, Mr. Dion, an aloof former academic, made no public statement yesterday. The party's constitution calls for a leadership review, which is scheduled for next May in Vancouver. However, the mood within the party decidedly was not to wait, but to load Mr. Dion immediately onto a tumbrel and have him carted away, replaced by an interim leader, and to transform the leadership review into a full-fledged leadership convention.

The party is in debt. It can't afford both a leadership review and a leadership convention. Liberals close to the major contenders in the 2006 leadership convention that elected Mr. Dion vowed there would be discipline in the party, and no unseemly attempts to push Mr. Dion out the door. Most speculation is that the leader's mantle will be draped on either Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae, both Toronto MPs who placed second and third respectively to Mr. Dion in 2006.

Other names being talked about are former deputy prime minister John Manley, former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna, former Ontario cabinet minister Gerard Kennedy (who won election as a Toronto MP on Tuesday) and Toronto MP Martha Hall Findlay, a contender in 2006. Suburban Toronto MP Ruby Dhalla and New Brunswick MP Dominic Leblanc have indicated their interest in entering the race.

John Turner succeeded Mr. Trudeau as Liberal leader and became prime minister for 21/2 months until he lost the election in 1984 to Conservative Brian Mulroney.

Mr. Turner called on his loyal network of supporters within the party to avoid being ousted. He also had substantial sympathy for the case his backers made that Mr. Trudeau had left him a weak hand to play.

For Mr. Dion, there is no sympathy, senior party members said in interviews yesterday. They pointed out he had two years to prepare for an election; he wrote the platform himself and also decided on how the campaign should be run.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081015.election-dion16/BNStory/politics/home
 
I do not think that Ontario has shifted right considering the provincial Liberals won 2/3 of the seats. It just shows if you have a strong leader with a good message, Ontarians will vote for you. However the Liberals will not win more then 65-70 seats for some time now.


Toronto Stay reports Dion will kicked out today!!!


Anyways nice to see the Liberal party has really started to bring out the whip.


Its funny to see Canada's so called natural governing party doing so badly.


Luckily Harper cannot get a majority even with the perfect mix of everything.

Will the Liberals go down from here? I do not think so if they elect an Ontario based leader who can connect with Federalists in Quebec and who is a centrist.

Aka. Igantieff.
 
If Dion is smart he will not step down immediately. He should tell those that want to run, that he WILL NOT step down while he still has debts (leadership etc.) - (sort of hinting that he would - but not saying so - to keep the media frenzy at a minimum). Give them all some motivation on cleaning up those debts. Hopefully that could be done before the end of the year, and then they can announce well ahead of when the leadership review is scheduled.
 
Dion hasn't got a reason to step down immediately. He needs to remain the opposition leader until next spring before the convention, pull the plug, and announce his attentions ahead of time so that a leadership race can begin.
 
I wish the BC "Liberals" could be honest and re-rename themselves Social Credit. They only have two parties there - NDP (which is traditionally slightly more centrist than the federal party) and Socreds.

I also wish that talk of John "Beaker" Manley - he's even farther to the fiscal right than Paul Martin - would die quickly. What has Manley done lately, anyway?
 
I wish the BC "Liberals" could be honest and re-rename themselves Social Credit. They only have two parties there - NDP (which is traditionally slightly more centrist than the federal party) and Socreds.

I also wish that talk of John "Beaker" Manley - he's even farther to the fiscal right than Paul Martin - would die quickly. What has Manley done lately, anyway?

I could vote for John Manley :eek:
 

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