Definitely Harper taking another minority government. I predict a masacre for the Liberals, with major losses in Quebec and Maritimes and a few in Ontario. Layton will not lose any seats, but will not do any better. The Bloc will lose one or two more seats to Harper's Cons.
The Liberals must be annoyed, as anyone with any charisma could soundly beat Harper. Where is your Trudeau'esque Champion?! Instead you've got some foreign-sounding (err...Quebec sounding?) half deaf, geek'ish looking bookworm.
That's funny, because I actually think the Liberal fortunes in the Maritimes, Quebec and Ontario will improve (but not to Chretien levels) and that they will challenge the Conservatives for minority level.
My calculus is based on the fact that in the East the Liberals have a good shot in NFLD and Nova Scotia to pick up two or maybe three seats. I do not think that the NDP have a realistic chance of Alymer/Gatineau or another Montreal area riding. In fact, I think the Bloc will most likely lose seats to the Liberals in Montreal and there maybe 5 picks-ups there. Montreal federalists will not go Conservative. Hull-Alymer-Gatineau, on the other hand, will show three or four-way races in many of the areas it stands to reason that the Bloc will hold those seats or even gain given the federalist vote split two ways, and sometimes three ways (in Gatineau).
In Ontario, Trinity Spadina (my riding) will be a real fight for the NDP and possibly some Hamitlon and 905 ridings might go Liberal. It is doubtful that there will be a net-loss for the Liberals in Ontario because they will go for NDP areas and Conservatives will go for Liberal areas. It might cancel out.
Liberals are likely to compete for two unheld seats in Manitoba and have a gut shot at another seat in Sask. Vancouver will probaby see some movement, but I doubt there will be a net gain for the Liberals.
In sum, Stephan Dion doesn't have to do more than bunt to exceed the public's expectations and a real grass-roots campaign might favour the opposition. In the end, the HOC will have less NDP, few BLOC and more Liberals and Conservatives. Who has the most is still a big question mark in my mind but Harper has the advantage eary going.
