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2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

Who gets your vote for Mayor of Toronto?

  • Ana Bailao

    Votes: 18 16.4%
  • Brad Bradford

    Votes: 3 2.7%
  • Olivia Chow

    Votes: 58 52.7%
  • Mitzie Hunter

    Votes: 2 1.8%
  • Josh Matlow

    Votes: 20 18.2%
  • Mark Saunders

    Votes: 4 3.6%
  • Other

    Votes: 5 4.5%

  • Total voters
    110
  • Poll closed .
I watched some of Matlow's media scrum yesterday. Speaking off the cuff and honestly answering questions, my impression of him was favourable. As of right now he's my pick.
Of all the candidates I feel like Matlow might have the most chance for debate boost (although hardly anyone watches mayoral debates) or for people to start to grow to know him over the course of the campaign. At this point he doesn't have that much city-wide public profile, but he's a pretty effective communicator and makes points that might resonate with people who are tired with the status quo.
 

This may not bode well for Doug Ford. I realize the next provincial election is not until 2026 however it appears Toronto is going to the left.

Mark Saunders is a nice candidate on paper but as I said before, he is too intertwined with Doug Ford to be taken as anything more than a puppet. With that being said, this is Olivia's race to lose.

Josh Matlow had a strong start but I think you may see the left coalescing around Olivia Chow in the future.
 
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What strikes me about the campaign thus far is the relative lack of media coverage.

Sure CP24 has a spot for it, but you have to scroll well down the page, past the 'if it bleeds it leads' section, sports, weather and world news.........but its there......

But a quick glance at the online front page of The Star or CBC Toronto most days, and you wouldn't know a Mayoral election was even taking place.

I want to see every credible candidate get a story whenever they put out a major platform plank. I want to see their opponents get some space for any credible retorts to same.

I also want to see any non-absurd candidate get some space, even its a shared article on lesser known candidates for Mayor.

Of course, these are all happening, but not at every media outlet, not every time, and overall the prominence is underplayed. I think if we get low turnout again, it will be in part because there will be many people going "There was an election today, first I'm hearing about it"

Which is the result of apathy, but I digress; its an apathy fed, or perhaps starved by the media.
 
What strikes me about the campaign thus far is the relative lack of media coverage.

Sure CP24 has a spot for it, but you have to scroll well down the page, past the 'if it bleeds it leads' section, sports, weather and world news.........but its there......

I wonder if “if it bleeds it leads” could help Saunders? Typically gun violence goes up in the warmer months and all it might take is one tragedy for Team Saunders to exploit it.

Also, a big *what if* is if the Maple Leafs make a big playoff run. I’m a Habs fan, so no fear of jinxing here, but this could be a generational Leafs that team that could still be playing hockey into June. This more than anything would divert eyeballs from the election.
 
What strikes me about the campaign thus far is the relative lack of media coverage.

Sure CP24 has a spot for it, but you have to scroll well down the page, past the 'if it bleeds it leads' section, sports, weather and world news.........but its there......
Every time I turn on CP24, there seems to be something about Anthony Furey. Is he the only candidate they've decided to cover?
 

I've included one of the crosstabs behind the paywall:

996 respondents via phone IVR
4/25 - 4/26
+/- 3.1% at 95% CL

1682705370177.png
 

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