2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Chris Sky is claiming electoral fraud and Gong wants a recount....

The amount of time and resource we waste on these malcontents. Both belongs in jail.

AoD

 

[adma]

As for Etobicoke being "so Conservative", Bailao was the "Liberal" candidate, not the conservative candidate, so I don't know if that discussion tracks, but they are definitely not not as "left-leaning" as Scarborough appears to have been this time around, but I do think Morley might be a 1-term councillor given the Etobicoke-Lakeshore results. There was no "Liberal" candidate last time there (Grimes was the Centre/Right vs Morley, so if there was a centrist option, E-L might have gone for it).

I wouldn't use mayoral results to jump to conclusions about Amber Morley's future--after all, Lib/Bailao voters aren't necessarily *averse* to having a progressive councillor, even if they didn't vote for their mayoral counterpart. Mayoral results aren't a referendum on councillors (except, maybe, in the case of Brad Bradford in his home ward).

If there's anyone I'd be more concerned about next time, it's Jamaal Myers--but that's because of the unique circumstances by which he got in, in a ward that doesn't typically vote "progressive". And Olivia *won* his ward by a landslide.

 

[adma]

It kills me that conservatives don't even have a clue as to what "15 minute cities" actually means. They just want to rail against it because it's seen as "progressive".

But also, beyond all of that, an impediment to "freedom". That is, they think of it as a plot to *literally* tether everyone to within a 15 minute radius and punish them if they stray beyond. Why do they think that? Because the Internets told them, and because they're stupid, that's why.

 

[adma]

Yes, Davenport appears to have over-taken Parkdale-High Park or Toronto Danforth as the most "left" ward/riding/hood in the city. Davenport had the highest vote share for the NDP in the last provincial and federal elections, as well as the highest vote share for a non-incumbent progressive councillor (Alejandra Bravo) last council election.

But *mayorally*, it has *already* been "most left" for several elections running. It just that on a *council* level, it projected the illusion of being "centre" due to Ana's incumbency and all-but-acclamation in '18 (which *lots* of people have read *way too much* into).

Toronto-Danforth *seems* leftier than it is due to its parliamentary Layton/Tabuns history; but mayorally it gentrified into a spot of John Tory safety through his years. And P-HP is more bourgeois-moderate in the Bloor West/Swansea end--of course, remember that *all* these wards were once split in half, before Dougie did his magic prior to the '18 election...

 

[adma]

Oof Celina Caesar-Chavannes got just 253 votes. Not even a modicum of name recognition helped...

I like to refer to her as "Tennessee Tuxedo". Y'know, CCC ;-)

 

[adma]

Chris Sky is claiming electoral fraud and Gong wants a recount....

Eeesh. I shoulda known this kind of tinpot thing would happen. Squash him like a bug, but fast.

Fringe Toronto mayoral candidate Gong demands recount despite losing by over 266K votes

Despite losing by a whopping 266,389 votes in Monday's byelection, fringe Toronto mayoral candidate Xiao Hua Gong is asking for a recount.

toronto.citynews.ca

And, just as I feared, he's a hit with the meme-a-riffic kiddies.

One surprising Toronto mayoral candidate was shown to be a big hit with the youth

As more than 720,000 adults hit the polls Monday to vote in Toronto's by-election for mayor, their children did, too, in a mock election that showe...

www.blogto.com

When I think of it, I think Gong was on a "no publicity is bad publicity" sugar high from the knocks against his signage onslaught and responded by doubling down, gleefully allowing himself to be memed, etc etc--and now he's facing the consequences of all of that being a house of cards...

 

[adma]

I grew up there too and totally agree about Etobicoke's "culture" (at least in the central, bungalow wasteland part). As I've mentioned on this board previously, Stephen Holyday was in my class in grade school, and even to my 10 year old eyes at the time, he struck me as a dimwit, and his performance and voting record at city council are proof that my young impression was correct...

I really hope that Chow properly sidelines that buffoon, as is deserved. He had way too much say under Tory.

Though I have to say that there has been a bit of a high-operating between-the-cracks stealth-subversive "McLuhanist" element to Etobicoke over the years--the home of Elwy Yost, the place where Barry Duncan pioneered media studies and media literacy education in the 70s, subsequently the home of Etobicoke School of the Arts. But unfortunately, it's hard to help the silent majority of those who sought and seek to move out there, and their motivations in doing so. (And a lot of those youthfully-bred stealth-subversives weren't exactly Etobicoke "lifers"; one can even view the Dave Bidini-founded West End Phoenix as a kind of symbolic "journal of urban ex-Etobians".)

 

[adma]

- While it's more than 3 years away, I expect there to be chatter soon about 2026 candidates to take on Chow. Names that come to mind include Ana Bailao (obviously), Jennifer McKelvie, Stan Cho and *gasp* Michael Ford. 2026 is certain to be a less crowded race than 2023, with the real possibility of the centre/right wing coalescing around a candidate a la Ken Sim in Vancouver or Mark Sutcliffe in Ottawa to take on the left.

But while I can see the *generic* centre/right coalescing, I can *also* see Doug Ford offering his own monkey-wrench candidate anyway, a la Saunders. For you see, those first two names *could* galvanize a big tent--but unlike the very last name in that list, they wouldn't be "Doug's choice". And Doug would be antsy in the absence of "Doug's choice". He probably couldn't resist offering Mikey or Kinga, oblivious to how the "Doug's choice" element is actually an albatross around their necks, much as it was w/Saunders. (That is, *if* Doug's still in power by the time the next election rolls around)

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Speaking of the end of this election - any bet on whether Gong's supporters/campaign office will be removing all their signage?

AoD

 

[PL1]

Speaking of the end of this election - any bet on whether Gong's supporters/campaign office will be removing all their signage?

AoD

Has anyone calculated Gong's sign to vote ratio?

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Has anyone calculated Gong's sign to vote ratio?

Asymptotic approach to infinity.

AoD

 

[Islington Express Bus]

A lot of Gong's signs have already been removed in my area.

 

[John_Dee]

But while I can see the *generic* centre/right coalescing, I can *also* see Doug Ford offering his own monkey-wrench candidate anyway, a la Saunders. For you see, those first two names *could* galvanize a big tent--but unlike the very last name in that list, they wouldn't be "Doug's choice". And Doug would be antsy in the absence of "Doug's choice". He probably couldn't resist offering Mikey or Kinga, oblivious to how the "Doug's choice" element is actually an albatross around their necks, much as it was w/Saunders. (That is, *if* Doug's still in power by the time the next election rolls around)

Ford will likely stick his fat face into the next election with a preferred candidate whether he's still in power or not. I'm sure CP24 and all the usual suspects will be happy to give him media megaphones. Would he actually have the nerve to push Kinga given the rumors about the two of them having an affair? Given what happened to Tory and all? Ah, who am I kidding? Of course he would. Rules and decorum are for other people, aren't they?

As for Mikey, the Fords' usual fans might be a little less enthused about him since he doesn't appear to be a radical right nutjob like his uncles. I can't see his squeaky-voiced demeanor doing him any favors, either. Media interviews with him would be like listening to Minnie Mouse. And dear old Unca Crackhead might have poisoned the grounds for any future Fords running for the position of Mayor. Pretty to think so, at least.

 

[adma]

As for Mikey, the Fords' usual fans might be a little less enthused about him since he doesn't appear to be a radical right nutjob like his uncles. I can't see his squeaky-voiced demeanor doing him any favors, either. Media interviews with him would be like listening to Minnie Mouse. And dear old Unca Crackhead might have poisoned the grounds for any future Fords running for the position of Mayor. Pretty to think so, at least.

Let's not forget that said delivery-deficiency also plagued Saunders--he was way too softspoken for the big he-man law-and-order guy DoFo tried to portray him as. Which only reinforced notions of him as a weak puppet.

Incidentally, I haven't seen Mitzie Hunter discussed so much in these postmortems--maybe because there's something too "good-natured" about her to earn the easy sneers directed at a Saunders or Bradford, even though she was just as much of a tin-eared disaster with her silly "Fix The Six" slogan and all. Perhaps it's a little because unlike Bailao or Bradford, she didn't have conservative "fixers" on board--but she also didn't have Matlow's bourgeois-urban-NIMBY/progressive base. She was sort of like, just, *there*, a wouldbe Queen of Scarberia--though given her nature and given how Scarberia swung, it might well be that not unlike Matlow, her base was likelier to default to Olivia than to Ana.

In the end, to use the old horse/camel metaphor, Mitzie's problem is that she came across as a Chloe Brown if she were designed by a committee.

 

[adma]

Has anyone calculated Gong's sign to vote ratio?

Judging from his popularity with the kids, probably a million-billion-zillion to one.

In that popular-with-the-kids light, Gong was truly the Roofi of the byelection.