Willowdale East / Bayview Village

[Tacoma]

This is the area known as C14 in the MLS map, bordering North-South by Finch and Hwy 401 and West-East by Yonge and Bayview, spilling into East of Bayview (Bayview Village area).

We are looking for houses in this area. Spoke with many Real Estate Agents who say this is one of the hottest area in Toronto with average prices shooting up 50% or more over the past couple of years. People are buying older houses for over $1 million, tearing them down and building new ones worth around $2.5-$4.5+ million. Slightly older houses (those built in the 1990's) that are too "new" to be torn down are going for just under $2M. Crazy!

We like this area, but before we pull the trigger on anything, I am seeking feedback as to what others here think of this area? Do you think this hot trend will continue or is this a mini-bubble? Real Estate agents are pretty unanimous that this area will continue to be hot for many more years because there are still many more houses that will be gentrified. But I'm just thinking how much higher can prices go? Is this area turning into another Lawrence Park or Banbury/Don Mills?

I can understand the math that if you buy an old house for $1M and then spend $1.5M+ to tear down and build a new house, then you're not going to sell for less than $2.5M. But I'm not totally convinced that prices can continue to accelerate up.

 

[Edward Skira]

They don't spend $1.5m to tear down and build new. Certainly less. Enough to still make a great profit.

 

[Conrad Black]

No surprise given the location. The Iranian money pouring in helps.

 

[NorthYorkEd]

Real Estate agents are the last people you should be listening to.

According to them, properties here will continue to double in value every few years until infinity. A quick gut-check seems to suggest that markets have been manipulated by banking and government policy, true economic foundations are not supportive of sustaining these rising prices, and at some point there has to be a reversion to the mean. Either a "soft-landing" style correction or a cold hard crash. As with most bubbles, no one will realize which one it is until it is already too late. Then everyone will say, see, we should have seen it coming.

In my unprofessional and completely-worthless-except-to-myself opinion, properties are over-valued and due to correct, but people keep buying them. It defies most logic, but real estate has always had more of an emotional component attached to it. I don't watch houses here as closely, but many condos are already showing signs of a softening, especially in ghettos -- oops, I mean "communities" -- like Avondale.

 

[Tacoma]

They don't spend $1.5m to tear down and build new. Certainly less. Enough to still make a great profit.

I have a friend who built a 2,500 sq. ft. house for around $700,000 or $280/ sq. ft cost about 10 years ago. Today, we talked to construction people who build/renovate houses and they say it's about $300-$400 / sq. ft. to build a custom luxury house. That's in line with our friend's cost adjusted for today's dollars. Here's a site that collaborates that per sq. ft. cost.

The new houses in that area are about 3,500 to 5,000 square feet (excl. basement). So if you take the midpoint $350 per sq. ft. and build a 4,000 sq. ft. luxury home, the math comes to about $1.4M.

 

[Tacoma]

Real Estate agents are the last people you should be listening to.

According to them, properties here will continue to double in value every few years until infinity. A quick gut-check seems to suggest that markets have been manipulated by banking and government policy, true economic foundations are not supportive of sustaining these rising prices, and at some point there has to be a reversion to the mean. Either a "soft-landing" style correction or a cold hard crash. As with most bubbles, no one will realize which one it is until it is already too late. Then everyone will say, see, we should have seen it coming.

In my unprofessional and completely-worthless-except-to-myself opinion, properties are over-valued and due to correct, but people keep buying them. It defies most logic, but real estate has always had more of an emotional component attached to it. I don't watch houses here as closely, but many condos are already showing signs of a softening, especially in ghettos -- oops, I mean "communities" -- like Avondale.

People have been saying house prices will drop for over a decade. I have a friend who continued renting starting back in 1997 hoping for prices to "correct" and he's still renting and waiting today! Even in the 2008/9 recession, house prices didn't really fall - they just didn't increase as much.

But my question isn't really whether prices will continue to increase. I think it will. There's no issue up here with mortgage derivatives being layered on sub-prime lending and shady bond rating agencies. I don't see a bubble in Toronto.

My question is which GTA area do you think detached houses are going to increase fastest - which area will be in higher demand? Willowdale East (C14) appears to be one candidate.

 

[ehlow]

My question is which GTA area do you think detached houses are going to increase fastest - which area will be in higher demand? Willowdale East (C14) appears to be one candidate.

Well, as you mentioned Willowdale prices are already pretty high, but it's likely a very safe investment.

If we're talking an increase in prices however, I would've guessed a place like Eglinton West, west of Allen Rd. It's a place where prices have been historically low and the underground section of the Eglinton Crosstown transit line is being built.

It also has the good bones of retail and will likely see a situation where prices increase, schools get better, and retail becomes more upscale.

 

[James]

Not to turn this into a real estate thread but yes, Willowdale East and Bayview Village (which is actually in MLS district C15), have always been relatively expensive. For the largest price increases, you really have to find the undervalued, currently less-desirable locations, which have a lot more upside potential than the mature sought-after neighborhoods.

The housing stock in Willowdale East has gone through significant changes over the past 10 years. Small bungalows have made way for large newly built homes. Single family homes in this area have always commanded a premium due to the proximity to Yonge St and to the 401. Tear downs do go for $1M+. On the other side of Bayview, the neighborhood of Bayview Village has typically been more 'desirable' (as subjective as that is) than Willowdale East and that's clearly reflected in the housing prices.

 

[ehlow]

Not to turn this into a real estate thread but yes, Willowdale East and Bayview Village (which is actually in MLS district C15), have always been relatively expensive. For the largest price increases, you really have to find the undervalued, currently less-desirable locations, which have a lot more upside potential than the mature sought-after neighborhoods.

Yeah, exactly.

The housing stock in Willowdale East has gone through significant changes over the past 10 years. Small bungalows have made way for large newly built homes. Single family homes in this area have always commanded a premium due to the proximity to Yonge St and to the 401. Tear downs do go for $1M+. On the other side of Bayview, the neighborhood of Bayview Village has typically been more 'desirable' (as subjective as that is) than Willowdale East and that's clearly reflected in the housing prices.

That's a bit surprising to me since Willowdale is closer to the subway & Yonge.

 

[James]

^ A little bit of inactivity in this thread but getting back into this discussion, I think the reasoning behind Bayview Village being "more sought after" has to do with fewer condo/apartment buildings and a generally more "secluded" series of roads which result in little enclaves and cul-de-sacs versus Willowdale East which is more open, standardized and grid-like. Factoring in Willowdale East being in closer proximity to the multitude of condo/apartment buildings and high rise/commercial office buildings on Yonge St all add up to make the neighborhood just a bit less "enclosed" than Bayview Village.

All that said, we're just splitting hairs here. Willowdale East continues to be a great neighborhood and one that is very much sought-after. Housing prices surely allude to this. In terms of real estate, if it isn't already, I think Willowdale East and Bayview Village are well on its way to chasing down buyers priced out of York Mills (St. Andrew - Windfields) and the west side of Banbury-Don Mills.

 

[Paolo]

i too grew up in willow dale, i remember when houses were in the 200's now a bungalo costs over 1 million in the heart of willow dale.

 

[ticky]

Just moved into this area (Bayview Mews) and wondering whether anyone can recommend places of interest in the area as well as any decent places to eat that aren't in the overpriced Bayview Village?

 

[Edward Skira]

All that said, we're just splitting hairs here. Willowdale East continues to be a great neighborhood and one that is very much sought-after. Housing prices surely allude to this. In terms of real estate, if it isn't already, I think Willowdale East and Bayview Village are well on its way to chasing down buyers priced out of York Mills (St. Andrew - Windfields) and the west side of Banbury-Don Mills.

Beautiful neighbourhood but yes getting very pricey.

 

[James]

Just moved into this area (Bayview Mews) and wondering whether anyone can recommend places of interest in the area as well as any decent places to eat that aren't in the overpriced Bayview Village?

As far as places of interest, particularly if you have a young family, the newly updated Bayview Village Park, just north of you, is a pretty popular little spot with a splash pad and lots of green space.

For inexpensive food, definitely steer away from Bayview Village mall. Your best bet would be to either head to the Yonge/Sheppard corridor or trek east along Sheppard towards Bessarion Station.

 

[ticky]

Does anyone know of a running track publicly accessible in this area – whether a school or park – preferably as close to 400m as possible?