Why the Liberals lost and where should they go from here.

[Eug]

Neither Rae nor Trudeau is a liability for the party. Rae is a distinguished and well-respected politician. He does have some baggage, but that baggage is for some political choices in his past, not scandal. Trudeau is a potentially a bright up and comer for the future, and he does seem to have a bit of a sensible head on his shoulders. Of course, he has no experience however.

Would either of these lead the Liberals to victory in the next election? Very unlikely, although I think Rae would be more successful than Trudeau for various reasons.

I think the problem for the Liberals is that they have no obvious stars that outshine Rae at the moment. ie. Rae is not a liability. He is a big benefit to the party, even if he may not be everyone's ideal and perfect leader of the future Liberals.

Well, so what if he's not perfect. If he were to gain traction in the next 2 years then he could be a lot more suited to the job than so many others in the party, baggage or not.

So, like I said, personally I think it's stupid to tie your hands like that. Rae agreed to it, so he can get out of politics gracefully, sure. However, it's a big lack of foresight to delete an option completely just for some potential (very) short term gain.

 

[unimaginative2]

While I'm not convinced that he should be leader at this time, the idea that Justin Trudeau is somehow a liability to the party seems completely wrong-headed to me. Certainly many members of the media despise him, not least because of jealousy, and that's transformed into a fashionable cynicism about his abilities. He's an intelligent, well-spoken, charismatic, youngish man who managed to capture a seat from a tough Bloc opponent in a bad year and hold it securely in an even worse year. He faces unreasonable expectations because of his family heritage and I agree that people are only talking about him as a leader because of his last name, but if you leave all that baggage aside he's a strong MP. He hasn't been overly presumptuous, either, having declined to run for leader last time and being very tepid about the idea this time as well, despite some significant pressure. He's also the best fundraising asset the party has, able to pack a big room any time.

 

[pman]

The Liberal Party does have a precedent for making the son of a former grandee the leader. Paul Martin Jr (Bono's pal) was the son of Paul Martin Sr, a cabinet minister in the Pearson years.

 

[TrickyRicky]

As an outsider I respectfully stand by my original statement that from a strategic perspective both Rae and Trudeau are liabilities, primarily because they are liabilities in Ontario. Rae for instance is far more respected in Western Canada, Trudeau not. Why this matters is that with all due respect to commentators in the papers and their ideas about power in the West or Quebec, as goes Ontario so goes the nation.

When I say liability I don't mean this as an attack on character or the men themselves. This is about cold hard strategy not the decency of the man. Perhaps this is exactly what is wrong with the Liberal party. They think that a man with a respectable resume or a decent character makes a good leader or a political asset.

 

[adma]

The Liberal Party does have a precedent for making the son of a former grandee the leader. Paul Martin Jr (Bono's pal) was the son of Paul Martin Sr, a cabinet minister in the Pearson years.

And provincially, I suppose Bob Nixon counts...

 

[Eug]

Hmmm... My mother is visiting and the discussion got to politics. She has lived in Canada since the 1960s and has voted either NDP or Liberal all her time here in Canada. She voted NDP most of the time. In fact, when I was a kid, my dad counted as friends and/or worked with several local NDP politicians. She was voting Liberal in more recent years only because Goodale was the candidate in her riding (in Regina). For this last election I just found out she voted PC, in Ontario.

Given her previous history, I'm quite surprised. In terms of getting the message out, it seems they must have been doing something right... as is obvious from the election results.

 

[King of Kensington]

So maybe there's going to be a by-election in TC 2 years from now?

 

[King of Kensington]

It seems that Rae has lost it. He would have been a better leader than Dion and Ignatieff. However he has turned into quite the bitter man as a result of the NDP getting triple the number of seats as the Liberals, and attacks the NDP with a convert's zeal, railing against how the NDP "refuses to accept the reality of the market economy" (sic.) or has failed to "modernize" like other social democratic parties.

Like in the UK, the social democrats are big and the Liberals are small. It looks like we're heading toward a West European style polarization between social democrats and conservatives.

 

[pman]

So maybe there's going to be a by-election in TC 2 years from now?

TC would vote for a mailbox if it were a Liberal candidate. The riding was gerrymandered to bolt on the somewhat Conservative-friendly neighbourhoods of Rosedale and Moore Park with the gay, poor and immigrant neighbourhoods south of Bloor. The mailbox analogy isn't that bad - neither Bill Graham nor Bob Rae ever showed the slightest interest in actually representing Toronto's local concerns in Ottawa, or even spending much time in the riding. For example, Bob Rae was a no-show at a recent community meeting at Rosedale United Church, attended by Kristin Wong-Tam (Councillor) and Glen Murray (MLA). Doesn't matter - Rae can take us for granted because he knows we'll always vote Liberal.

 

[King of Kensington]

I don't think the "they'll vote for a mailbox as long as it's painted red" analogy applies anymore. There are no more safe Liberal seats or voting groups.

The NDP got 30% in the most recent federal election in what was expected to be another cakewalk for Rae. It is definitely winnable for the NDP. Especially if Rosedale gets taken out in redistribution (as the population downtown as grown).

 

[SimonP]

In the riding next door, Olivia Chow won all of the Bay Street condos in her riding. If that can happen, then with the right candidate and a lot of resources the NDP could win Toronto Centre. They put next to no resources in the riding this time around.

More realistic is that after redistricting the area could be much friendlier in 2015. I've heard talks that the Conservatives want to carve out a new riding that covers both Rosedale and Forest Hill. Which would give them a very winnable seat. A new Toronto Centre, with some of the condo areas from Trinity-Spadina added, would be a very close Liberal/NDP race.

 

[King of Kensington]

I'd be surprised if any of the polls in T-S didn't go NDP this time, with the exception of a few luxury buildings. Indeed it's interesting that we kept hearing how all the condos were going to make T-S unwinnable, yet Olivia won the riding by the biggest margin in its history federally or provincially.

I suppose Rosedale could be moved into St. Paul's, but that would probably require moving the NDP-friendly territory of Hillcrest and Humewood into Davenport.

 

[pman]

I don't think the "they'll vote for a mailbox as long as it's painted red" analogy applies anymore. There are no more safe Liberal seats or voting groups.

The NDP got 30% in the most recent federal election in what was expected to be another cakewalk for Rae. It is definitely winnable for the NDP. Especially if Rosedale gets taken out in redistribution (as the population downtown as grown).

I hope you're right. Nice scenario for both the Conservatives and the NDP.

 

[adma]

I'd be surprised if any of the polls in T-S didn't go NDP this time, with the exception of a few luxury buildings. Indeed it's interesting that we kept hearing how all the condos were going to make T-S unwinnable, yet Olivia won the riding by the biggest margin in its history federally or provincially.

I'd be surprised if the Liberals won more polls than the Conservatives in T-S this time. (Polls, not votes.)

 

[toraerach]

In the riding next door, Olivia Chow won all of the Bay Street condos in her riding. If that can happen, then with the right candidate and a lot of resources the NDP could win Toronto Centre. They put next to no resources in the riding this time around.

David Miller could probably win it if he decides to go federal. There really wouldn't be anywhere else for him to run. Wong-Tam might also be able to take it if she's looking to get away from city hall in four years. Then again the Liberals might bounce back if they get their act together - losing TC would be a huge blow for them and would not bode well for Liberal fortunes in their former fortress.

Perhaps someone here can answer this for me as I don't know where else to post this: come 2015, won't the provincial and federal election campaigns overlap substantially due to the fixed election dates at both levels (the first Thursday and third Monday of October respectively)? That's assuming this provincial election results in a majority or a stable coalition of course.