Who Will Challenge Rob Ford?

[MetroMan]

With three and a half years to go until the next municipal election (or maybe not), finding somebody with the charisma, a progressive agenda and a positive message to challenge Rob Ford may seem far from most people's minds.

I however, believe that a campaign to challenge Ford must begin at least 2 years before the next election. Ford won because the left's standard bearers lacked the like-ability and trustworthiness to overcome his negative message.

The current crop of potentials residing within City Hall are no more likely to defeat Rob Ford than Jane Pitfield was able to challenge David Miller. Incumbents have a history of staying as long as they like, because a strong enough alternative needs to come from the outside to justify the "change" label yet has to be well known to beat the incumbent's name recognition. This is why his or her campaign must begin soon.

Toronto needs a progressive visionary. While David Miller didn't live up to his "Superman with a broom" expectations, I feel that he put forward a positive vision for Toronto. There is plenty of talent within the corporate world, but the Mayor's paltry six figure salary is a deterrent for most. Nonetheless, there must be a crop of them who would do it for civic pride and personal accomplishment.

Which City Hall outsider do you see as viable strong challenger to Rob Ford -- whether you believe they will run or not?

 

[MetroMan]

The intention of this question is to seek somebody from the corporate world with the knowledge and skill to run the city. However, politicians from other levels of government who remain untainted from scandal or past governance could be good candidates.

While I think Jack Layton would be a shoe in, I don't think he would give himself that kind of demotion. Olivia Chow on the other hand could probably pull it off. She's a former city councillor so she knows how to run the city, and her new national profile might very well be a good combination.

Then again, there's Rahm Emanuel who left the Whitehouse to run for Mayor of Chicago... so I'm going to ignore my "tainted by past governance" rule and "National>Municipal demotion" as a deterrant. if Bob Rae takes the interim Liberal leadership role, disqualifying him to run for Prime Minister under the Liberals in 2015, he could phase into retirement by leaving national politics -- why stay if he will no longer run for PM? -- and settle into a role as Mayor where he can make a lasting difference.

On the corporate side, are there any popular charismatic Torontonians who could become our Richard Daley?

Discuss...

 

[GraphicMatt]

I think you're too quick to discount candidates from inside City Hall. Shelley Carroll comes to mind immediately. Josh Matlow seems like a potential contender at some point, though 2014 is too soon. A councillor from a suburban riding who can be seen as a centrist "bridge builder" would be well-positioned to draw broad support.

That said, your point about the invincibility of incumbents is definitely valid. Assuming he runs again, 2014 will be Ford's election to lose -- he'll need to screw up badly, pissing off his base. With someone more even-tempered and collaborative in the mayor's chair, I wouldn't put too much stock in that happening. But this is Rob Ford. He's got a real good chance of screwing all this up. (His political trajectory may end up almost exactly mirroring that of one-term Ottawa mayor Larry O'Brien.)

Non-council candidates? I wouldn't be surprised to see Michael Bryant start making the rounds again, rebuilding his image in the hopes of a run. A guy like Gerard Kennedy might see his recent defeat as an opportunity to take a shot at it. Depending on how the provincial election goes, there may be some out-of-work MPPs looking for work in 2014. And if Ford is unpopular in 2014, people will start clamouring for John Tory to jump in again.

 

[MetroMan]

I was just about to point out Gerrard Kennedy. He's a well liked guy and just happened to lose his seat because of the Liberal purge. He's out of a job now so I'd like to see him enter municipal politics. I like Shelley Carroll also. My "let's look outside City Hall" was a rebuke against Adam Vaughan. I don't think he can do it. Inner suburbians hate him. Whoever challenges Ford has to be popular across the city.

 

[GraphicMatt]

Yeah, I don't see a lot of potential for Adam Vaughan at this point, unless we see a major sea change in the city and the suburbs and downtown start getting along. Vaughan's a very good councillor for his Ward (unless, I guess, you love clubbing) but suburban voters might well treat him like another Ignatieff.

Don't know if you read this earlier this week, MetroMan, but there's an interview with Shelley Carroll at Spacing that explains how close she came to running for mayor last year, with John Laschinger as her campaign manager. Would have made for a far more interesting race.

http://spacingtoronto.ca/2011/05/11/why-shelley-carroll-didnt-run-for-mayor/

 

[MetroMan]

Thanks for the link. So many what if's in the last election. What if Laschinger had had a young charismatic accomplished councillor untainted by TTC customer service problems and sex scandals? What if he had taken on Carroll instead of Joe Pants?

So much went wrong for the progressives which allowed an incompetent "get off my yard" type, bumbling, gaff prone, outcast councillor with a criminal record -- and accompanying mug shot -- to look appealing to almost half of the city. Who would have thought?

 

[adma]

Funny how nobody's mentioned Glen Murray...

 

[TonyV]

I am expecting lots of goof-ups from the Brothers Ford, and there is the certainty that the usual suspects (i.e. Carroll, Vaughan) will try to capitalize on the various embarrassments. Most importantly, while speculating, be sure to allow for the totally-out-of-the-blue scenario; as we all know, such things can really happen.

If I were to bet on anyone at this point in time, it would be John Tory. I didn't like him last year this time, but now I sure wish he had contested, because he would have won, and we would be spared the nightmare we're living right now.

 

[jeff316]

Non-council candidates? I wouldn't be surprised to see Michael Bryant start making the rounds again, rebuilding his image in the hopes of a run. A guy like Gerard Kennedy might see his recent defeat as an opportunity to take a shot at it. Depending on how the provincial election goes, there may be some out-of-work MPPs looking for work in 2014. And if Ford is unpopular in 2014, people will start clamouring for John Tory to jump in again.

They're definitely setting Matlow up for a future run to take out/replace Ford in about eight years. In the meantime, I could see Kennedy running - he could grab enoguh of the left and center to make a run worthwhile, but I don't know that he could win. He doesn't strike me as the type to run when he knows he's going to lose. There's no gain in that for him (unlike Giambrone - if he had run and lost he would have been set-up nicely for a 2011 provincial election run.) If Kennedy runs for mayor and loses, his big-time politics career is likely over.

I agree re: Bryant. I could see Bryant running next time. I think he'd lose though - I don't know that the powers-that-be would get behind Bryant without having paid some dues as a councillor (or other elected public figure) first. Running straight for mayor would likely look bad on his part. Plus the left wouldn't come around behind Bryant at all. But running and losing could be the first step toward getting his politics mojo back.

I don't think Ford will flame out - he'll slowly peter out, winding down in popularity, likely maintaining just enough support to get a second term before not running for a third time. Then his brother will run.

 

[W. K. Lis]

I am thinking that John Tory, now working at CFRB, would make a better mayor than Rob Ford. However, it would mean a cut in his pay cheque, and he may be fed up with politics all together to bother running.

 

[TonyV]

They're definitely setting Matlow up for a future run to take out/replace Ford in about eight years. .....

I think this is a strong possibility.

 

[GenerationW]

What if he had taken on Carroll instead of Joe Pants?

As someone who voted for him, there's no chance I would have backed her. And doesn't her whining about no one calling her tell you something? Very primadonna-ish of her.

If Sarah Thomson had stuck it out to the end, she could have positioned herself for a shot in 2014. But alas she showed herself to be an opportunist, and worse than that an opportunist with poor judgement.

John Tory? I like him, but I'll believe he can win an election when I see it.

A lot can happen before '14, but at this point the biggest threat to Ford's job is a massive heart attack.

 

[MetroMan]

Oh please no. That would set his brother up to ride to the Mayor's job in a wave of sympathy.

 

[pman]

Michael Ignatieff may be available.

 

[Bruvyman]

As someone who voted for him, there's no chance I would have backed her. And doesn't her whining about no one calling her tell you something? Very primadonna-ish of her.

If Sarah Thomson had stuck it out to the end, she could have positioned herself for a shot in 2014. But alas she showed herself to be an opportunist, and worse than that an opportunist with poor judgement.

John Tory? I like him, but I'll believe he can win an election when I see it.

A lot can happen before '14, but at this point the biggest threat to Ford's job is a massive heart attack.

If Tory had run in this past election, I would be shocked had he NOT won. He would have taken it in a landslide.