John Tory.
Transit wise, of existing projects, Olivia Chow and John Tory only really differ on Scarborough subway. I prefer the LRT plan too but I don't think we should reopen the debate and refuse the Federal money. I also believe OC's decision to oppose the Scarborough Subway plan to be a calculated populist decision rather than a logic based one like say Soknacki, and I don't want this line of thinking extended to other transit planning.
However, putting aside existing projects, I see Tory's SmartTrack evolving into a modified GO RER that includes more stations within the 416, through-routing of Stoufville and Georgetown lines, and fare integration. This would be a massive win for transit within Toronto and I believe Tory is a reasonable type of person who would be willing to significantly alter his plans to a modified GO RER system. Olivia Chow on the other hand is attacking GO RER, doesn't include the Stoufville line on her maps, and has begun a campaign of NIMBYism against GO RER. A massive no-no to me.
Olivia Chow's bus plan on the other hand is not a very smart plan. Increased frequency doesn't solve problems which any resident of Eglinton like myself, a route with very high frequency, can tell you. Further, we simply have no buses in inventory to accommodate her bus plan, nor do we have a Bus Storage yard available. Olivia Chow advertises her bus plan as a Day-1 plan but the construction and tendering of new bus process will take many many years. Further, her funding plan doesn't take into account the construction of a new bus yard, the purchasing and tendering of new buses, and the increased maintenance and bus driver wages.
Tory in the spring did propose queue lane jumping and express bus routes. These would be real solutions. He and his team has said absolutely nothing on his Bus Plan since however. Would be nice to see him (re-)announce his Bus Plan now that the campaign is coming to an end, it would put a final nail in the coffin on Chow's campaign if he released a better Bus Plan for the suburbs.
Tory is also previously one of the biggest advocates for the DRL prior to his SmartTrack summer flipflop, and I feel that he would be the right person to have around when DRL talks enter City Council towards the end of the term. Olivia Chow despite her past as a transit critic, clearly knows nothing on developing and planning transit as everything in her campaign has shown thus far. Olivia Chow is now running a negative campaign attempting to (poorly) dismantle Tory's transit platform through NIMBYism, populist rhetoric and idiotic gestures is just saying goodbye to the last fleeting thought of voting for her.
I think John Tory would be a weak mayor in that he won't have the conviction to so adamantly stand for certain positions like the Fords do, and I do not think this is a bad trait, especially now. I largely want a mayor whose position can be influenced by expert opinion and to follow whatever council as a whole wants. City Council for the most part votes in favor of the progressive positions I hold, so if Tory gets out of the way here and when it comes to transit, then I would be happy. Further, John Tory is someone I see being able to work well with the Ontario Liberals and Federal Conservatives/Trudaeu Liberals, and as the man most able to ensure Toronto gets transit funding should Trudeau win election next year. Olivia Chow on the other hand I don't see working as well with city council or with the other tiers of government.
Lastly, there is a divide, real or imagined, within the city following the past 4 years. Olivia Chow is polling abysmally low in the burbs and not too high in downtown either. John Tory on the other hand has wide support in both downtown and the inner suburbs and is the person able to bridge the gap (IMO) imagined gap between downtown and suburb. With this election also being a referendum on the Ford's, looking at current polls it is a no-brainer as to who should be voted for.