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What's the future for the Conservative Party?

Videodrome

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People defending Harper are missing something huge. The last PM to win four straight elections was all the way back in 1908.

Did you just re-invoke the Conservative boogeyman? I thought that went out of style in 2004
You obviously didn't follow this election. Conservative people are now saying that the niqab and Barbaric Cultural Practices nonsense backfired big time. Their whole campaign was nasty and mean spirited. Are you an "old stock" Canadian?

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/former-tory-adviser-criticizes-harper-campaign-for-desperate-damaging-tactics

Allan W. Gregory @awg_allanOften new cabinet ministers in change over election have to face a strong front opposition bench of knowledgable ex-ministers. Not this time
 
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wild goose chase

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Do you guys think that a major contribution to the election result came from visible minorities who were put off from the Conservatives by their tactics?
 

Videodrome

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That would be an understatement! It was a big reason why they won that majority in 2011 and their racist and xenophobic nonsense almost wiped out that support base.
 

wild goose chase

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One thing you used to hear about was how Canadian visible minorities would be more evenly split among left and right wing parties than in many other western nations (say the US with the Republicans or some European countries with their nationalistic right-wing parties putting off minorities) because Conservatives had avoided alienating the minorities on racial/religious/cultural grounds and stuck to economic issues.

This election probably changed that dynamic.
 

King of Kensington

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Do you guys think that a major contribution to the election result came from visible minorities who were put off from the Conservatives by their tactics?
Yes, there was a big swing towards the Liberals among South Asians in this election. Not so much among the Chinese though who voted for the Tories in large numbers.

There are 4 South Asian MPs in Trudeau's Cabinet, all Sikh (who have a strong affinity for politics and represent a majority of South Asian pols in Canada).
 

wild goose chase

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Yes, there was a big swing towards the Liberals among South Asians in this election. Not so much among the Chinese though who voted for the Tories in large numbers.

There are 4 South Asian MPs in Trudeau's Cabinet, all Sikh (who have a strong affinity for politics and represent a majority of South Asian pols in Canada).
For some reason, the Chinese Canadians seem to vote more consistently Conservative than other minorities. Was there still a noticeable drop in support even among them?
 

King of Kensington

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For some reason, the Chinese Canadians seem to vote more consistently Conservative than other minorities. Was there still a noticeable drop in support even among them?
Hard to say. The Conservatives won the new seat of Markham-Unionville and held onto Richmond. But the Liberals held onto Agincourt and took Vancouver South back from the Tories.
 

Videodrome

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My parents live in Arnold Chan's riding (Scarborough-Agincourt) and it always goes to the Liberals. This time, both the Liberal and Conservative candidates were Asian.
 

wild goose chase

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I noticed it's less common to see reporting of breakdown of voting by demographic categories in Canada, compared to say the US where you often hear much more about say, the minority vote (eg. African-American or Hispanic) or how men or women voted differently. Maybe we don't really survey this as much in Canada.
 

King of Kensington

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Yes, we don't really do exit polling here. From what I've seen (nothing in 2015), Chinese and Filipino voters were more Conservative than other ethnic minorities, while Conservative support among African Canadians, aboriginals and Muslims is very, very low.

In this election, we already know that turnout was way up among FNs. I know there were GOTV efforts among Blacks and Muslims, but to what extent they succeeded I don't know.
 

wild goose chase

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Yes, we don't really do exit polling here. From what I've seen (nothing in 2015), Chinese and Filipino voters were more Conservative, while Conservative support among African Canadians, aboriginals and Muslims is very, very low.
That seems to be my impression -- I think Conservatives target Chinese and South Asians more for potential voters, but it could be just perception based on the suburban GTA.

I've actually wondered how people in the US got those types of statistics-- I didn't know before whether they were based off opinion polls or exit polls, and how they got a representative sample which also reflected race/gender -- perhaps someone surveys you on demographic categories and then ask who you voted for?

Maybe Canadians are just more private about this kind of info -- racial/ethnic questions seem less common more generally on forms and tend to more optional than in the US, I've noticed.
 

wild goose chase

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Yes, we don't really do exit polling here. From what I've seen (nothing in 2015), Chinese and Filipino voters were more Conservative than other ethnic minorities, while Conservative support among African Canadians, aboriginals and Muslims is very, very low.

In this election, we already know that turnout was way up among FNs. I know there were GOTV efforts among Blacks and Muslims, but to what extent they succeeded I don't know.
I think another thing is that some groups that consist of more recent immigrants (although I don't know if "immigrants" as a whole have particularly low turnout) tend to have less of a voter turnout, but maybe things have changed. GOTV efforts are always a good thing.
 

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