VIA Rail

[EnviroTO]

This is a good video and motivator for having a good rail network built in Canada.

(Sigh, it'll never happen...)

The more people ride trains, the more support there will be to invest in them. With the rail investments in regional rail in Toronto and Montreal, and if there is HFR, then we are on our way to having a high speed option. That high speed option is unlikely to ever cross the whole country though... there isn't the population to support it.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The more people ride trains, the more support there will be to invest in them. With the rail investments in regional rail in Toronto and Montreal, and if there is HFR, then we are on our way to having a high speed option. That high speed option is unlikely to ever cross the whole country though... there isn't the population to support it.

I wonder what the population tipping point is where HSR would make sense on a national scale. Canada has about 30 million people ~15 years ago, and we're going to hit 40 million before long.

I don't think we'll see a coat-to-coast HSR network within the lifetimes of any UT posters, but we could maybe see a West Coast (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton) and East Cost network (Windsor, Toronto, Montreal)

 

[kEiThZ]

I wonder what the population tipping point is where HSR would make sense on a national scale.

Billions.

Even the US doesn't have a business case for this.

The EU is double the population of the US, on a smaller land area. They are now slowly getting around to offering some trans-European HSR. And nothing like China for a while yet.

I don't think we'll see a coat-to-coast HSR network within the lifetimes of any UT posters, but we could maybe see a West Coast (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton) and East Cost network (Windsor, Toronto, Montreal)

That'll be enough for more than a few lifetimes.

 

[MisterF]

The Rockies are a huge barrier to any kind of HSR line from Calgary to Vancouver. Their populations would have to be an order of magnitude bigger for that to make any sense. And no matter how many people live in Canada northern Ontario will still be 1800 km of rugged wilderness.

With Mulroney's dream of 100 million Canadians, or even Laurier's dream of 60 million, a vastly expanded rail network will be needed. Including HSR in the most populated areas. But HSR across the entire country is pointless.

 

[roger1818]

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 InternationalThe Rockies are a huge barrier to any kind of HSR line from Calgary to Vancouver.

And it isn't even just the Rockies, you also have the Columbia and Coast mountain ranges. While not as high, the Columbia mountains are a more significant barrier. Admittedly most of the Coasts can be mostly avoided by dipping south through the Fraser Valley.

The current route is far too windy to be practical for HSR, so a massive amount of tunnelling would be necessary (at least 200km of new tunnels, and possibly double that). If you consider that the the world's longest railway tunnel (the Gotthard Base Tunnel at 151.840 km) cost CHF 9.560 billion (about 12.84 billion CAD) in 2015, we would be looking at over 20 billion CAD just for the tunnels (not to mention the between 650 and 1000 kilometers of high speed track, depending on the route) just to get from Vancouver to Calgary. All this to get a HSR line that will do in 3 to 4 hours (with at top speed of 300km/h) what can be done in 1 hour by airplane. I just can't see this ever happening.

The people who propose this have no concept of the distances and terrain involved.

Shandro, Bret & Haegeli, Pascal. (2018). Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 18. 1141-1158. 10.5194/nhess-18-1141-2018. Shared via Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

 

[crs1026]

^ I don't believe for an instant that I will see HSR Vancouver-Calgary in my lifetime, or in my grandchildrens' lifetimes.... but.... I do foresee a tipping point for much more intensive HSR/HFR investment. There are parts of the country (Edmonton Calgary being the prime example) where construction of a new passenger rail line is possible, and the incremental cost of building to HSR in the first phase is likely not that great relative to a HFR like first build. That's not to say that the initial phase might be limited to HFR, as a thin edge of the wedge... but the obstacles to HSR that exist Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal are not universal. It will get easier.

As to the Rockies, I would predict we are a lot closer to some new rail tunnels than we may think. Reduction in grades, addition of track capacity, energy savings, environmental pressures, posssibly indigenous interests. That might enable a more VIA friendly posture, although it's the growth in the freight network that would justify the expense. I bet somebody at CN/CP has rough drawings in their desk drawer.

- Paul

 

[SFO-YYZ]

This is a good video and motivator for having a good rail network built in Canada.

(Sigh, it'll never happen...)

I get the "motivational" aspect of this, but there is very little value comparing the two.

Completely different population, geography, historic development patterns, and most importantly, two completely different governmental systems that lead to different decision making processes and funding models when it comes to large scale infrastructure. I'd much rather that countries like Canada take a gradual approach similar to the EU, rather than a bulldozer approach building massive cookie cutter HSR stations across the country fuelled by trillions of $$ of debt funding.

On social media, you often see some people bring out massive Chinese infrastructure projects, and say "why can't XYZ country do this?" Aside from China, I very much doubt there is a second country on this planet that can (or want to) replicate its governance model.

 

[kEiThZ]

The Liberal convention is set to vote on HSR.

Can't wait to see how HFR is marketed as HSR in the coming election.

 

[Towered]

This is a good video and motivator for having a good rail network built in Canada.

(Sigh, it'll never happen...)

China has 35 times the population of Canada...

 

[crs1026]

The Liberal convention is set to vote on HSR.

Can't wait to see how HFR is marketed as HSR in the coming election.

I'm actually fearful of how this approach might harm HFR. The resolutions do not speak of cost or business case. They just want HSR.... within 3 years. So much room for "spending like drunken sailors" backlash when VIA has at least built a value proposition.

It's like watching a Toronto light rail project blossom into a subway.... and then devolve into debate.......

- Paul

 

[kEiThZ]

I'm actually fearful of how this approach might harm HFR.

Absolutely. So am I.

They sat on their hands for years and did nothing. Now HSR is looking sexy because the Biden administration is pushing it. But they don't have anything on deck but HFR. So they have two choices. Either they go back to the drawing board or sell HFR as HSR lite.

I think the second strategy is the likely outcome. And that is a double edged sword. On one hand, we'll finally see discussion on upgradability. "We can make this better and take it to HSR." On the other hand, we'll see a public feeling duped when the "higher speed rail" the Liberals promised turns out to take over 3 hrs between Toronto-Ottawa and 5 hrs between Toronto-Montreal. It's the kind of political wordsmithing that breeds cynicism.

Sadly, I think there's zero chance they'll be honest with the public and say HFR first and upgrades later as we can afford them.

 

[crs1026]

Sadly, I think there's zero chance they'll be honest with the public and say HFR first and upgrades later as we can afford them.

I suspect HFR is all anyone will find the funding for. Perhaps some momentum will be created towards projects elsewhere.
If it were simply a matter of wordsmithing, I would gladly let them have their 15 minutes of fame so long as they got on with building. But as you suggest, the public will expect HSR to look like TGV or Bullet trains.
Amazing how little attention is paid to managing expectations beyond the next election.

- Paul

 

[roger1818]

Absolutely. So am I.

They sat on their hands for years and did nothing. Now HSR is looking sexy because the Biden administration is pushing it. But they don't have anything on deck but HFR. So they have two choices. Either they go back to the drawing board or sell HFR as HSR lite.

I think the second strategy is the likely outcome. And that is a double edged sword. On one hand, we'll finally see discussion on upgradability. "We can make this better and take it to HSR." On the other hand, we'll see a public feeling duped when the "higher speed rail" the Liberals promised turns out to take over 3 hrs between Toronto-Ottawa and 5 hrs between Toronto-Montreal

I agree. The one thing is we don't know many details about HFR and how it has evolved under the JPO. For all we know, the detailed plan could be looking more like HSR than was originally proposed. Only time will tell.

A bit off topic (as it isn't related to VIA Rail specifically), but this could open the door to finally working with Amtrak to make the necessary upgrades to improve Cascades service to Vancouver.

 

[EnviroTO]

I'm actually fearful of how this approach might harm HFR. The resolutions do not speak of cost or business case. They just want HSR.... within 3 years.

Agreed. If the HSR crowd, especially the ones who think a "trans-Canada" option is achievable become the loudest of the passenger rail supporters, they are likely to drown out the more realistic options leading to a vote where nothing gets done.

 

[roger1818]

Agreed. If the HSR crowd, especially the ones who think a "trans-Canada" option is achievable become the loudest of the passenger rail supporters, they are likely to drown out the more realistic options leading to a vote where nothing gets done.

That could actually be the strategy.