VIA Rail

[Reecemartin]

Not sure if it's been shared but Ellis Don and Aecom are pushing for HSR in Alberta and have signed an MOU with the Gov

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413189548360732672

 

[crs1026]

If the Liberals announced a $20B HSR plan tomorrow, most of country would have aneurysm. Even this $6-12B is getting a lot of grumbling. This is a good downpayment.

For all the grumbling, I have to admire YDS for an astute, or perhaps just lucky, strategy for pitching this to the country.

The "original" HFR 1.0 vision was a very bare-bones proposition, with a business case that by all reports has demonstrated an absence of subsidy. The premise was that it could be improved where further investment showed ROI. It was all about attracting investors.

Having considered that, the response of the government has not been to naysay that idea.... but rather to wonder what bells and whistles it can add to make the thing sexier, even if some of the additions aren't within an ROI-based envelope. (Which happens to be how the Liberal side of the house looks at spending generally)

I think the debate (and theres going to be an election in here shortly) won't be the government saying let's build this thing, and the opposition saying don't build it.... rather, the debate may be between one party saying build it, with the bells and whistles....and the other party saying only build the part that was shown as being able to run in the black, ie HFR 1.0.

Where for decades, investment in VIA was considered "unprofitable", most of the critics this week are mostly saying it's not good enough.

If so, that's a wonderful way of having gotten to "yes", guaranteeing something gets approved.

- Paul

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

For all the grumbling, I have to admire YDS for an astute, or perhaps just lucky, strategy for pitching this to the country.

The "original" HFR 1.0 vision was a very bare-bones proposition, with a business case that by all reports has demonstrated an absence of subsidy. The premise was that it could be improved where further investment showed ROI. It was all about attracting investors.

Having considered that, the response of the government has not been to naysay that idea.... but rather to wonder what bells and whistles it can add to make the thing sexier, even if some of the additions aren't within an ROI-based envelope. (Which happens to be how the Liberal side of the house looks at spending generally)

I think the debate (and theres going to be an election in here shortly) won't be the government saying let's build this thing, and the opposition saying don't build it.... rather, the debate may be between one party saying build it, with the bells and whistles....and the other party saying only build the part that was shown as being able to run in the black, ie HFR 1.0.

Where for decades, investment in VIA was considered "unprofitable", most of the critics this week are mostly saying it's not good enough.

If so, that's a wonderful way of having gotten to "yes", guaranteeing something gets approved.

- Paul

I wonder what portion of those critics actually cares about HSR, or whether they are using it as a Trojan Horse argument to mire the whole thing down so that nothing gets done. What getting HFR done would achieve is building the constituency that would care about rail enough to improve it further - and that's something those with against rail doesn't want.

AoD

 

[kEiThZ]

We may be inheriting (and the media may be confusing) maps that originated in the business case analysis with maps that show final route choices.

That map was tweeted out by Transport Canada.

Any scenario that shifts significant numbers of trains off the CN line onto a HFR line also creates space on CN for those few express trains.

You're forgetting about the Kingston hub. 12 trains departing in each direction out of Kingston.

 

[kEiThZ]

I think the debate (and theres going to be an election in here shortly) won't be the government saying let's build this thing, and the opposition saying don't build it.... rather, the debate may be between one party saying build it, with the bells and whistles....and the other party saying only build the part that was shown as being able to run in the black, ie HFR 1.0.

The CPC Transport Critic's first and only post on this was tweeting a National Post article with a vague complaint about the debt and deficit. I would bet money that the CPC would can this if they got elected.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412164429018386441

 

[kEiThZ]

I wonder what portion of those critics actually cares about HSR, or whether they are using it as a Trojan Horse argument to mire the whole thing down so that nothing gets done. What getting HFR done would achieve is building the constituency that would care about rail enough to improve it further - and that's something those with against rail doesn't want.

AoD

Almost definitely. The above CPC Shadow Transport critic tweets this crap on Twitter. But in the press gets quoted as saying it's not good enough and the Liberals don't have a plan to deliver. Lest we forget too, that the Harper government passed on HFR in 2013. Refused to even fund studies on it.

 

[p_xavier]

Sort of. It follows the old CP alignment from Peterborough to Smith Falls, that was abandoned decades ago.


If you are going to use a French system for abbreviations that no one will understand in English, do you use the French system for counting while talking English?

Where 72 is sixty-twelve and 95 is four twenties fifteen!

I also use the Swiss numbering as I find the French numbering system to be stupid as you just pointed out. It's not a French system for abbreviations, it's the international standard (or would be).

Since you use "Toronto English", somebody else can translate for you.

 

[crs1026]

That map was tweeted out by Transport Canada.



You're forgetting about the Kingston hub. 12 trains departing in each direction out of Kingston.

Hadn't forgotten....but cut back to the Hub trains (which may be such on paper, but may magically enter Kingston on one side and depart out the other....) and there is capacity again, enough for a couple express runs a day anyways.

= Paul.

 

[crs1026]

Almost definitely. The above CPC Shadow Transport critic tweets this crap on Twitter. But in the press gets quoted as saying it's not good enough and the Liberals don't have a plan to deliver. Lest we forget too, that the Harper government passed on HFR in 2013. Refused to even fund studies on it.

Well, if they come out firmly against it in the election....there will be Quebec seats lost. Those seats may never be CPC friendly, and so nothing really lost....but maybe some impact in Ontario also.
And when the CPC candidate is reminded that it's investor money, not defiicit money (you can be sure this will be said even if the Liberals are adding some spending to the envelope).....

I think there's half a chance that CPC will have to say what they are prepared to do, even if it's token....and not just naysay what their opponents are prepared to do.

- Paul

 

[kEiThZ]

Well, if they come out firmly against it in the election....there will be Quebec seats lost. Those seats may never be CPC friendly, and so nothing really lost....but maybe some impact in Ontario also.

....

I think there's half a chance that CPC will have to say what they are prepared to do, even if it's token....and not just naysay what their opponents are prepared to do.

1) They've mostly written off Quebec. So they don't care about the cost there.

2) They will take the opportunity to try and win seats along the Lakeshore by spinning HFR as taking service away from those communities.

3) Just like their climate plan, they will portray this as unaffordable and offer an affordable "compromise" that will basically gut concept completely. I expect slightly enhanced Lakeshore service as the counteroffer.

4) They'll use the closure of Greyhound to argue that the West and rural areas need more funding for intercity buses and that there's no need to spend billions on VIA.

5) Or they just may not say much at all. Worked for Doug Ford and Donald Trump on so many issues....

I am beyond disappointed at this immature response from someone who is supposed to be a minister-in-waiting. Leaves me with the impression that the CPC just sees VIA Rail as something useless that only Laurentian elites care about.

And when the CPC candidate is reminded that it's investor money, not defiicit money (you can be sure this will be said even if the Liberals are adding some spending to the envelope).....

She isn't a random CPC candidate. She's the shadow Transport Minister. And that was her response.

 

[nfitz]

You're forgetting about the Kingston hub. 12 trains departing in each direction out of Kingston.

I'll believe it when I see it. I just can't see that this is going to happen if they do get HFR going. I hope I'm wrong. I'd be less surprised if they reactivated the 47-mile CP line from Kingston to Sharbot Lake for a shuttle, than 36 departures a day out of Kingston.

Though 12-16 departures a day from Kingston is probably more likely.

 

[nfitz]

Since you use "Toronto English", somebody else can translate for you.

Shouldn't most be using Toronto English on a local Toronto forum?

I did school in Quebec - I understand it - I just suspect that you'd maximize comprehension here by using Canadian English instead of Swiss French. And isn't that the goal, rather than trying to show us all a better way to speak English?

 

[p_xavier]

Shouldn't most be using Toronto English on a local Toronto forum?

I did school in Quebec - I understand it - I just suspect that you'd maximize comprehension here by using Canadian English instead of Swiss French. And isn't that the goal, rather than trying to show us all a better way to speak English?

No, because I find it stupid to continue "norms" that have no logic. And you might find it weird but I did change words in the QC vocabulary at large because I wrote many definitions for QC's conseil du trésor.

 

[Urban Sky]

You're forgetting about the Kingston hub. 12 trains departing in each direction out of Kingston.

I'd be less surprised if they reactivated the 47-mile CP line from Kingston to Sharbot Lake for a shuttle, than 36 departures a day out of Kingston.

Though 12-16 departures a day from Kingston is probably more likely.

He counted Montreal and Ottawa as one direction (12 trains to each city would be more than Kingston - or even Toronto - ever had!), as both routes only split up a further 81 km east. Thus, the promise was for 24 trains, which is not that far from the 12-16 trains you call realistic:

https://twitter.com/x/status/890579315255123968

 

[DirectionNorth]

Not sure if it's been shared but Ellis Don and Aecom are pushing for HSR in Alberta and have signed an MOU with the Gov

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413189548360732672

Sigh. Again? There's been extensive discussion at SSP on this. I don't think the numbers add up, that route doesn't even have train service right now. Getting HFR for them would be what I can get behind.

For all the grumbling, I have to admire YDS for an astute, or perhaps just lucky, strategy for pitching this to the country.

The "original" HFR 1.0 vision was a very bare-bones proposition, with a business case that by all reports has demonstrated an absence of subsidy. The premise was that it could be improved where further investment showed ROI. It was all about attracting investors.

Having considered that, the response of the government has not been to naysay that idea.... but rather to wonder what bells and whistles it can add to make the thing sexier, even if some of the additions aren't within an ROI-based envelope. (Which happens to be how the Liberal side of the house looks at spending generally)

I think the debate (and theres going to be an election in here shortly) won't be the government saying let's build this thing, and the opposition saying don't build it.... rather, the debate may be between one party saying build it, with the bells and whistles....and the other party saying only build the part that was shown as being able to run in the black, ie HFR 1.0.

Where for decades, investment in VIA was considered "unprofitable", most of the critics this week are mostly saying it's not good enough.

If so, that's a wonderful way of having gotten to "yes", guaranteeing something gets approved.

- Paul

I hope that's the case, though this:

I wonder what portion of those critics actually cares about HSR, or whether they are using it as a Trojan Horse argument to mire the whole thing down so that nothing gets done. What getting HFR done would achieve is building the constituency that would care about rail enough to improve it further - and that's something those with against rail doesn't want.

AoD

gets me concerned. Given this country, I would not be surprised if AoD was right.

Well, if they come out firmly against it in the election....there will be Quebec seats lost. Those seats may never be CPC friendly, and so nothing really lost....but maybe some impact in Ontario also.
And when the CPC candidate is reminded that it's investor money, not defiicit money (you can be sure this will be said even if the Liberals are adding some spending to the envelope).....

I think there's half a chance that CPC will have to say what they are prepared to do, even if it's token....and not just naysay what their opponents are prepared to do.

- Paul

Given the CPC's attitude right now, I think they would can this if elected. At 2025 stage, I suspect it will be too late to cancel - I doubt they will be elected this year, given the numbers. And Erin the Tool doesn't inspire confidence (I saw a couple speeches online).

2) They will take the opportunity to try and win seats along the Lakeshore by spinning HFR as taking service away from those communities.

The numbers there were quite close. I'd put this as a wait and see.

3) Just like their climate plan, they will portray this as unaffordable and offer an affordable "compromise" that will basically gut concept completely. I expect slightly enhanced Lakeshore service as the counteroffer.

Unfortunately, I agree.

4) They'll use the closure of Greyhound to argue that the West and rural areas need more funding for intercity buses and that there's no need to spend billions on VIA.

I doubt it. They'll tell the west to suck it on bus funding.

5) Or they just may not say much at all. Worked for Doug Ford and Donald Trump on so many issues....

Unfortunately, the most likely option from them.

I'll believe it when I see it. I just can't see that this is going to happen if they do get HFR going. I hope I'm wrong. I'd be less surprised if they reactivated the 47-mile CP line from Kingston to Sharbot Lake for a shuttle, than 36 departures a day out of Kingston.

Though 12-16 departures a day from Kingston is probably more likely.

Same here, given VIA's history. I doubt even 12-16 departures under that idea. Maybe 5-10.

Shouldn't most be using Toronto English on a local Toronto forum?

I did school in Quebec - I understand it - I just suspect that you'd maximize comprehension here by using Canadian English instead of Swiss French. And isn't that the goal, rather than trying to show us all a better way to speak English?

No, because I find it stupid to continue "norms" that have no logic. And you might find it weird but I did change words in the QC vocabulary at large because I wrote many definitions for QC's conseil du trésor.

This is a really silly debate, though I tend to side with nfitz. When in Rome, do as the Romans do. Even if it's stupid.