News   Nov 29, 2024
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News   Nov 29, 2024
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News   Nov 29, 2024
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VIA Rail

When a bunch of folks decided that the way to fund VIA is to defund our ongoing industrial policy in Southwestern Ontario. Started with this post:

Whether one agrees or disagrees with the hypothetical given; it at least had a tangential relationship to VIA rail; if something of a fantasy one.

I get the temptation to answer; I've done likewise before; but perhaps we can all agree the discussion has migrated away from any relationship to VIA, however tenuous and perhaps we could get the thread back to its focus.
 
But, but . . . if Via was given funding for a massive expansion in both routes and frequency, bought all new equipment every five years and was only allowed to buy domestic, it would create a massive domestic manufacturing base and the subsidies would pay for themselves.

Or something like that.
I know you are sarcastic.

The expansion would not be enough to replace the auto sector. Anyone who thinks it is is even more delusional than folks here think I am.
 
Don't complain and give the Pikachu face meme then because rolling stock is too high. When there's no need to build new trains in 2 generations there's no need for the industry. When there's no need then we have no expertise so when they finally need a new train after decades of scraping the life out of them there won't be any buying power.
I don't know when I said anything resembling the above.

You are aware not every country needs to have every kind of industry to be successful, right? There are European countries such as the Netherlands, Finland, and Slovakia, which have little to no domestic railway manufacturing, and they survive.

Btw you are giving a very negatively skewed picture of what planned obsolescence is. It doesn't mean 1 month after a missed replacement the cars fall apart. It means allowing for replacement before you need to do endless SLEPs to keep them on life support. Its all cyclical.
I don't care what specific way you imagine it in. That's not the point. The point is that planned obsolence in railway (and all other forms of) manufacturing is Mickey Mouse bullshit worthy of the Kafkaesque economies of the Eastern Bloc, where buses were planned with a lifespan of about 7 years in order to keep the Bloc's bus manufacturing industries afloat. There's a reason why they stopped doing that as soon as capitalism took over, and the transit agencies got to start making their own decisions - because it's goddamned stupid.

Try to remember that businesses are supposed to serve society, not the other way around. Why the fuck should I buy a fridge, or a bus, or a train, or whatever, 3-4 times as often as I would need otherwise need to? The need to keep a business "viable" is hardly my concern. Whether I'm a private individual trying to keep my appliance costs down, or a transport provider trying to provide a reliable, economic service, ANY kind of planned obsolence, in ANY kind of form you can imagine it, screws me over. I don't care about your business. Find some way to deal with it.

When you constantly are obsessed with juggling around RDCs noone will want to come to do business here
Of course, because it's not like RDCs also need maintenance and overhauls done on them, right? No economic opportunity there! No sir!

Iirc ttc tried to sell their h5s to Lagos but they were cancelled at the last minute probably because their conditions were too poor for their standards...now that is embarrassing.
I'm not sure what this has to do with the topic - I see no connection - and it's also ripe with speculation. "IIRC" "probably" do not constitute an argument. Where are your facts?

The knowledge that I have is that Lagos backed away from the H5/H6 sale because they were able to procure new rolling stock built by a Chinese manufacturer. I don't know why this was the case - maybe some funding came up that wasn't there before, or maybe the cars were too far gone to economically refurbish them. But your post has no evidence that that is the case, so maybe you should back up your claims with facts rather than just posting whatever comes to mind.
 
As a rough order of magnitude, I added up Wikipedia numbers for VIA, Exo and GO. It's about ~210 locomotives and ~1700 coaches. If we assume that locomotives last 20 years and coaches last 25 years, that's less than 1 locomotive and 6 coaches per month being built for replacement. Even assuming massive transit expansion that quadruples those numbers, this isn't a level of demand (and concomitantly employment) that would compensate for the $56B in automotive parts and vehicles that Canada exports per year. I hope these fantasies can be put to bed for good.
 
I don't know when I said anything resembling the above.

You are aware not every country needs to have every kind of industry to be successful, right? There are European countries such as the Netherlands, Finland, and Slovakia, which have little to no domestic railway manufacturing, and they survive.


I don't care what specific way you imagine it in. That's not the point. The point is that planned obsolence in railway (and all other forms of) manufacturing is Mickey Mouse bullshit worthy of the Kafkaesque economies of the Eastern Bloc, where buses were planned with a lifespan of about 7 years in order to keep the Bloc's bus manufacturing industries afloat. There's a reason why they stopped doing that as soon as capitalism took over, and the transit agencies got to start making their own decisions - because it's goddamned stupid.

Try to remember that businesses are supposed to serve society, not the other way around. Why the fuck should I buy a fridge, or a bus, or a train, or whatever, 3-4 times as often as I would need otherwise need to? The need to keep a business "viable" is hardly my concern. Whether I'm a private individual trying to keep my appliance costs down, or a transport provider trying to provide a reliable, economic service, ANY kind of planned obsolence, in ANY kind of form you can imagine it, screws me over. I don't care about your business. Find some way to deal with it.
As i kept on alluding to. its all cyclical. you support the industry, the industry supports you. of course its not viable to buy new trains vs refurbish here. theres simply no alternative that is comparable, but just because its always been done this way for the last 50 years doesnt mean its the correct way. eventually fossil fuels will run out and if we continue with diesel all the time eventually they will need to be replaced. same with railroads. its not guaranteed that the big 3 will support canadian automotive forever. we need to diversify and rail is the next best thing.
Of course, because it's not like RDCs also need maintenance and overhauls done on them, right? No economic opportunity there! No sir!
yea lets refurb 6 dinosaur from the 50s every 5/10 years vs continual development and new builds every 20. which one has more economic impact over the course?
 
Show me a train, any train, from anywhere in the world, any time period, that is/was not a lemon, cheaply built, or retired due to political reasons (like British Railways' modernization plan) that retired after a mere 20 years of use.
 
Show me a train, any train, from anywhere in the world, any time period, that is/was not a lemon, cheaply built, or retired due to political reasons (like British Railways' modernization plan) that retired after a mere 20 years of use.
Japan shinkansen e4 series, 700 series from mainline, 300 series, E1 series.

E531, 215, 651,

Just look at British rail and how many generations of MUs they have. They have almost 3 dozen just for gen 3. What do we have. 1 type from the the jurassic period, 1 type from the 80s and 1 type from the 90s. We are only getting ventures now. First new purchase in 40 years. Of course there's no appetite to invest here
 
Japan shinkansen e4 series, 700 series from mainline, 300 series, E1 series.

E531, 215, 651,

Just look at British rail and how many generations of MUs they have. They have almost 3 dozen just for gen 3. What do we have. 1 type from the the jurassic period, 1 type from the 80s and 1 type from the 90s. We are only getting ventures now. First new purchase in 40 years. Of course there's no appetite to invest here

Again, even if our trains were replaced every 20 years, the numbers don't justify substantial investment:

As a rough order of magnitude, I added up Wikipedia numbers for VIA, Exo and GO. It's about ~210 locomotives and ~1700 coaches. If we assume that locomotives last 20 years and coaches last 25 years, that's less than 1 locomotive and 6 coaches per month being built for replacement. Even assuming massive transit expansion that quadruples those numbers, this isn't a level of demand (and concomitantly employment) that would compensate for the $56B in automotive parts and vehicles that Canada exports per year. I hope these fantasies can be put to bed for good.
 
Show me a train, any train, from anywhere in the world, any time period, that is/was not a lemon, cheaply built, or retired due to political reasons (like British Railways' modernization plan) that retired after a mere 20 years of use.

To be fair, VIA's fleet renewal is at least a decade overdue. I think retirement after 20 years is probably rare globally. But so is keeping trains in service for four decades. I would guess that the optimum economic lifecycle for most rolling stock is in the 25-30 year range. For example, the Amtrak Acela trainsets will probably clock in about 25 years of revenue service when they are retired.
 
Japan shinkansen e4 series, 700 series from mainline, 300 series, E1 series.
Bzzt!

Show me a train, any train, from anywhere in the world, any time period, that is/was not a lemon, cheaply built, or retired due to political reasons (like British Railways' modernization plan) that retired after a mere 20 years of use.

We can dismiss any example from Japan, because, while they don't exactly go for "planned obsolescence", trains in Japan tend to be built much more cheaply, with a shorter intended lifespan. So a single order will be less costly compared to an order for similarly spec'ed rolling stock from Europe, but over a long period of time, it's a strategic choice. It's not actually a major cost-saver in the long run. They'll pay less per trainset order, but then need to order new ones sooner.

If you compared a batch of trainsets ordered for JR with a batch ordered for European operators, and assume rough parity in terms of type of trainset (i.e. for HSR vs. commuter trains or whatever), the cost of the European order will be higher initially, and the cheaper Japanese train will wear out and need to be replaced or at least majorly overhauled sooner. To figure out which strategy is more successful you need to look at the big picture, and that means maintenance and operational costs - if the train was a lemon, that favors the JP strategy, because you can cut your losses and move on more quickly, while losing less. If the train was the *opposite* of a lemon (i.e. one that ended up being particularly well-designed and needs *less* maintenance costs than the average for its type and age) then that favors the EU strategy, because you can hang onto it for longer and refurb it for cheaper than replacing it.

Then there is of course the fact that switching strategies will do NOTHING for trying to jump start a near non existent rolling stock manufacturing industry serving a country that basically still doesn't give a fuck about trains. It would take a biblical change in passenger rail planning, operations, and expenditure for the country as a whole to make Canada having its own manufacturing industry viable, and moving to a nonsensical 20 year lifespan for rolling stock isn't going to make anyone want to bother with that, when they can just as easily order from any variety of international manufacturers.

Ah, you mean the train of which 0 cars have been retired? Fantastic argumentation!

Retired after 29 years, which is almost the exact lifespan of unrefurbished railway stock. Another winning argument.

Perhaps the least valid example of all. These trains were built from 1988-1992, meaning they range in ages 32-36. Of the 18 train sets built, only 2 of them have been scrapped. Where exactly were you going with this?

Just look at British rail and how many generations of MUs they have.
Have you? Is this a discussion of how many generations they have, or about rolling stock ages? Because if we're talking about rolling stock ages, as I was under the impression we were, there have been a few classes of MUs that have been retired due to being prototypes or non standard, but many more have, again, lasted more than 20 years. The class 121 DMU was in service a whopping 57 years, and the class 101/102 was 47 years at retirement. Again, where were you going with this?
 
To be fair, VIA's fleet renewal is at least a decade overdue. I think retirement after 20 years is probably rare globally. But so is keeping trains in service for four decades. I would guess that the optimum economic lifecycle for most rolling stock is in the 25-30 year range. For example, the Amtrak Acela trainsets will probably clock in about 25 years of revenue service when they are retired.
25-30 is probably an optimum age, but I would venture that 35-40 is closer to the average due to the economic realities of many countries.
 
The TGV's have only just been retired after a 40-year run, UK's HST likewise. Amfleet is only just turning over.

The LRC fleet probably should have been gone a few years ago, but we aren't that far behind, and maybe we deserve credit for squeezing the last bit of juice out of the lemon. Point is, they were kept up to date internally and even now they are still very good railcars to ride in, even if they are structurally worn out.

Fleet size certainly could have been increased, if we had the track to run them on. But I'm not sure that more or newer trains would have helped much, given the absence of investment in better tracks.

The country's apathy towards better rail passenger service over the past few decades is regrettable, but it is what it is. Personally I'm much more fixated on advancing the tracks than bemoaning the equipment.

- Paul
 
The HST fleet isn’t retiring, it’s just going somewhere warmer like many old timers do
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