Northern Light
Superstar
I think there are some prices that are determinant.
1) Long distance GO fares are quite pricey and affect people's choice of mode when traveling across the region.
To pick an example on a line with 1/2 decent service, I selected Aldershot to Pt. Credit, that fare (Presto) is $9.51 one-way, or $19.02 round trip. If you already own a car, and your destination provides free or cheap parking, I think that's a large dis-incentive to ride.
Of course, a fare reduction significant enough to move the ridership needle in that scenario would need to come with additional service to handle the growth. I don't think the question would be one of .50c per ride, but if you get get the fare down to a 1.5x a typical local transit trip (no greater than $5 I think you put some bums in seats.
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2) For regular TTC users, I think the absence of fare-capping is an issue, the TTC regular fare is line with global norms in larger centres. But its pass costs are not.
A current TTC pass is $156. But 40 Presto Rides is $132
Students/Seniors get hit harder with a Seniors Pass at $128.15, but 40 Presto Rides (Senior) is $90
Eliminating passes and replacing them with a 40-ride cap would result in considerable savings for frequent transit users, but it would also allow a simpler fare structure to administer, including getting rid of 'low-income passes' which are priced at $123.23 per month. They would no longer be necessary and neither would the post-secondary pass.
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I don't think further reducing discount fares (Seniors/Students) at the individual fare level would induce any material amount of ridership as these fares are quite low.
While reducing the TTC general, adult fare could produce some gain, its an expensive choice to get to the point where you start to induce meaningful new ridership and when you do, you have to spend on service as well.
To save an adult rider $10 a week would mean a $1 fare reduction to $2.30, that's a give back in the low hundreds of millions before the cost of service.
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We've seen studies already that show the correlation between service level and ridership volume is higher than the correlation to price. That's likely where the priority should lie, but with some effort to reduce fare disincentives where they are greatest.
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