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TTC: Other Items (catch all)

Anecdotes are not evidence.

Evidence is the number of violent crimes committed per 100,000 people (rate) so that you're adjusting for population growth etc.
That evidence is BS! Most people don't report violent crimes unless they end up in the hospital these days because they know the police won't do anything. I've also had friends victim blamed so that sours the chances too
 
I don't know if the stats reflect it, but I note something similar on the roads when driving. It seems people drive worse and more aggressively than before covid.

Certainly, it's well documented that trust in civic institutions crumbled during covid (granted, this is a long term trend). Factor in the rising cost of living plus endless fear porn/brainwashing in the media and it seems many people are on edge these days.

So there does seem to be some qualitative and quantitative findings/observations that suggest something may be going on.
 
I can't easily access TTC offense rates from over a decade ago, but I can use the info from the last CEO's Report:

1707667320590.png


Clearly there was a substantial uptick from 2017-2019; through the pandemic. But if you look at the Nov '23 numbers, you're back down to the Q1 2020 rates, and the trendline seems favourable.

***

TPS Data Analytics only goes back 5 years, but this is the assault numbers (YTD) tracked over that period:

1707667584960.png


If we apply a population growth factor of 400,000 (80,000 per year) that seems reasonable to me. *

So, we would assume Toronto were 2,800,000 pre-pandemic and closer 3,200,000 today.

That gives a 2020 Assault rate of 68.2 per 100,000

That gives a 2024 Assault rate of 73.2 per 100,000

A definite increase but I wouldn't suggest it was a large one.

* The population numbers are a bit opaque, I would note if you chose to add another 200,000 in growth, the rate of assaults would be flat.
 
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I can't easily access TTC offense rates from over a decade ago, but I can use the info from the last CEO's Report:

View attachment 539928

Clearly there was a substantial uptick from 2017-2019; through the pandemic. But if you look at the Nov '23 numbers, you're back down to the Q1 2020 rates, and the trendline seems favourable.

***

TPS Data Analytics only goes back 5 years, but this is the assault numbers (YTD) tracked over that period:

View attachment 539929

If we apply a population growth factor of 400,000 (80,000 per year) that seems reasonable to me. *

So, we would assume Toronto were 2,800,000 pre-pandemic and closer 3,200,000 today.

That gives a 2020 Assault rate of 68.2 per 100,000

That gives a 2024 Assault rate of 73.2 per 100,000

A definite increase but I wouldn't suggest it was a large one.

* The population numbers are a bit opaque, I would note if you chose to add another 200,000 in growth, the rate of assaults would be flat.
Again I think you're ignoring the point of a lot of assaults not being reported.
 
Again I think you're ignoring the point of a lot of assaults not being reported.
You ignore the point that a lot of assaults were not reported pre-Covid.

But, it's quite a stretch to say that we'll open 50 more subways stations in 2024.
More likely a typo ... 2034?

Is it that much of a stretch? Line 2 - three stations. Line 1 three stations. Line 5 has 24 stations (and 10 stops). Line 3 (Ontario) has 15 stations. That's 46 stations right there. Toss in Line 4 - which isn't guaranteed - and you have 6 or so more stations. That's 52 stations. Which ignores the 28 stops on Line 6.
 
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I've not heard anything. What are you getting at?
If the rate of reporting hasn't changed, then what are you getting at by saying that a lot of assaults weren't reported pre-covid? Presumably a lot of assaults aren't reported post-covid as well.
 
You ignore the point that a lot of assaults were not reported pre-Covid.

More likely a typo ... 2034?

Is it that much of a stretch? Line 2 - three stations. Line 1 three stations. Line 5 has 24 stations (and 10 stops). Line 3 (Ontario) has 15 stations. That's 46 stations right there. Toss in Line 4 - which isn't guaranteed - and you have 6 or so more stations. That's 52 stations. Which ignores the 28 stops on Line 6.
That's fair but there were a lot less crazies and issues running around before so even that number was smaller back then.
 
If the rate of reporting hasn't changed, then what are you getting at by saying that a lot of assaults weren't reported pre-covid? Presumably a lot of assaults aren't reported post-covid as well.
I'm puzzled. turbanplanner was dismissive (as far as I can see), of the stats showing that the pre- and post-covid assault rate is similar, because a lot of assaults aren't reported.

What am I missing here? I think we both agree that there's no indication that the reporting rate has changed.
 
You can’t just reduce capacity of each arterial by 50% and think that will fly. These are key roads that are already jammed and you want to dedicate 1 lane each way for buses only? No one will support it. No everyone takes the TTC. The only places bus lanes are okayed is where there are 3 lanes available and making 1 be a bus lane is feasible because those roads have spare capacity. In some places like Steeles West, there is space to widen the road to add bus lanes like say from Bathurst to Hilda, which is about a short one mile stretch where Steeles is narrow. The problem there is jurisdiction- widening would need York Region support and perhaps some funding for the capital project.

Where it would make sense would be to make a street line King have a dedicated ROW and ban parking from all streets with streetcars on it.L within the downtown core - say Bathurst to Jarvis across - King/Queen/Dundas/College and even Bathurst itself.
Where ridership is high, bus lanes increase the capacity of the road. Where ridership is low, bus lanes can increase the potential capacity of the road.
 
Where ridership is high, bus lanes increase the capacity of the road. Where ridership is low, bus lanes can increase the potential capacity of the road.
It’s not only about ridership. Take Finch East as an example. You can’t take away one lane out of two as Finch is a key arterial road that has high ridership but also heavy traffic. It’s a key through route across and crosses many ravines. You need to factor in trucks and delivery services and 1 lane each way will not cut it. For such streets you need to expropriate and widen if you can. That takes years to do.
 
It’s not only about ridership. Take Finch East as an example. You can’t take away one lane out of two as Finch is a key arterial road that has high ridership but also heavy traffic. It’s a key through route across and crosses many ravines. You need to factor in trucks and delivery services and 1 lane each way will not cut it. For such streets you need to expropriate and widen if you can. That takes years to do.
It's all about priorities. These are challenges I face everyday, the transportation field doesn't need "innovative" solutions; it needs to apply existing internationally proven solutions.
 
It's all about priorities. These are challenges I face everyday, the transportation field doesn't need "innovative" solutions; it needs to apply existing internationally proven solutions.

I definitely do not favour widening Finch or other large arterials.

I do happen to favour grid-densifiication.

ie. Adding in new collector roads at 1km apart, rather than just the arterials at 2km apart.

I know this makes some people in favour of progressive, pro-pedestrian, pro-cycling, pro-transit, uneasy. They feel its a sop to drivers.

I'm just a pragmatist on that point, I'd rather have smaller roads, carrying few cars that uber-wide stroads carrying many cars.

I also see it as an opportunity to expand cycle tracks, and transit service and enhance connectivity between neighbourhoods with new crossing points of highways, railways and sometimes, cautiously, valleys too.
 

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