thettctransitfanatic
Senior Member
Will be on the lookout for 4513.
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Will be on the lookout for 4513.
drum118
Superstar
4513 has enter service on 512 after 13 days being here
thettctransitfanatic
Senior Member
Now for 4514, we will have to wait and see for when the testing is complete.
AlbertHWagstaff
Senior Member
4486 had overhead fall on it so there's some damage to the front above the fleet number which has been taped up. It's awaiting repairs (or maybe red duct tape!).
crs1026
Senior Member
Busy elves....two more cars ready to ship at the Bay. Presumably 4518 and 4519.
- Paul
- Paul
nfitz
Superstar
Ah that's interesting. To meet the 64-car in-service target for 2019, it is car 4519 (and the second Kingston car) that needs to enter service by December 31. Looks like it will be very tight. Though if the cars have arrived by December 31, but not yet entered service ... then doing much better in 2018 than 2017!
JamesKoole
Active Member
Seems unlikely that those will be "in service" by December 31 at this rate. Assuming the two arrive and are offloaded by Monday (Christmas Eve), which is probably a stretch, that allows just a few "working" days to get them in service. That doesn't account for the Kingston car either. I think it's fair to say that Bombardier will have a case of "close, but no cigar" for the stated targets for 2018.
Whatever the case, it seems they are in far better shape than last year at this time and it is becoming more plausible that they will meet the final targets assuming Kingston starts putting out cars at the required pace. They aren't off to a great start, it would seem, but first cars are going to take extra time as they get experience and get the line up and running.
Maltesefalcon
New Member
Agreed to above. Q1 next year will likely determine if BBD has any intention of getting the rest of the vehicles in service by end FY2019. This amounts to 80ish cars depending on how many end up here next week. So 7-8 per month on average.
If they come up with a lowball figure for Q1 and a flurry of activity for Q4, like they did in both 2017 and 2018; the TTC should prepare for disappointment.
If they come up with a lowball figure for Q1 and a flurry of activity for Q4, like they did in both 2017 and 2018; the TTC should prepare for disappointment.
nfitz
Superstar
The key will be Kingston. 4519 will be the 60th car delivered from Thunder Bay this year. If they are still planning on only building up to cars 4569 in Thunder Bay, that means there's only 50 left to deliver in 2019 (plus 4401 that was never completed, and is now in Quebec for modifications). So that seems very doable.
With the ramp-up for Q4 (5-6 more cars scheduled than Q2 and Q3) surely they weren't planning on achieving that with only 2 Kingston cars. If anything, Thunder Bay is ahead of schedule.
With Thunder Bay's capacity proven, the question becomes, can Kingston deliver 32 cars in 2019? We've seen no evidence to date, that Kingston can do this.
drum118
Superstar
No hope in hell any cars arriving next week will see service by Dec 31. Add 12 days from their arrival and maybe the day they enter service. That maybe light since 15 has been the going days..
With 4517 being off loaded today and 11 days to get the car ready for service on Dec 31 is very tight. Same goes for 4572 that has yet to be track that was off loaded Mon.
4514 should enter service by Friday if no issues have surface.
4515 Should enter service before Christmas, if no issues surface. It currently on 510
4516 Should enter service by Dec 31, if no issues surface.
Thunder Bay is not rebuilding 4401, as it will be done in QC.
nfitz
Superstar
Cars have arrived Christmas week in previous years and we heard at least two are shipping. Seems almost likely to me that there'll be one or two arriving next week. But I agree, no hope of getting them all in service by Dec 31.
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drum118
Superstar
24, 27, 28 and 31 are only days at this time where cars can be off loaded, but require 8-15 days of testing from the day they are off loaded. They are only off loaded on weekday. Do the math. Then, when will they make it to Toronto??
Unless they are on TTC property by Dec 31, 2019 delivery and in service.
Anyway, looks like 4514 will enter service Thursdays, as it has been place on track 14 in the yard. Thats 8 days at this time and will be 9 days from arrival to service come tomorrow and the fastest so far this year.
nfitz
Superstar
Ah,sorry. I somehow didn't manage to read the end of the sentence, "will see service by December 31". I'll edit my post ...
Well, I suppose there's a very remote chance, that one arriving December 24, might be approved late on December 31st in 8 days. And even that seems unlikely, given they already have five cars in process.
Yes, doing the math, they won't hit the 64 in 2018 in service target. If they pull out all the stops, they might hit 62, with the remaining 2 sitting in Toronto on January 1st.
But even that's a stretch - and really ... who wants to be pulling out all the stops over the Christmas holidays.
thettctransitfanatic
Senior Member
I don't think Bombardier wants to do elf labour, so the order targets may or may not be met. It's a wait and see game
Maltesefalcon
New Member
Exactly. Lots of cars coming for December, but are they cleaning the barn yet again? If they don't ship a couple a week; every week in January next year they won't finish on time.
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