Johnny Au
Senior Member
I have no idea but it is definitely not pocket change and can be very significant. Suicides and foreign objects/persons can add up.
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AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Jonny5:
Not really - consider the impact of say an hour long delay on the YUS at rush, and how many riders it affects directly (as users of the line) and indirectly (through knockon effect elsewhere in the system). Cost out those hours and you'd end up with a not so insignificant sum. There is nothing "idiotic" about that. Note this estimation would exclude the unquantifiable cost of mental anguish due to said delays as well.
AoD
Not really - consider the impact of say an hour long delay on the YUS at rush, and how many riders it affects directly (as users of the line) and indirectly (through knockon effect elsewhere in the system). Cost out those hours and you'd end up with a not so insignificant sum. There is nothing "idiotic" about that. Note this estimation would exclude the unquantifiable cost of mental anguish due to said delays as well.
AoD
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rbt
Senior Member
I agree that its pocket change (well under $50M/year, 1/20th of the platform barrier cost). The overall congestion cost for the GTA is due to the impact of millions commuters on a daily basis (it's nearly all roads/highways, including most drivers and bus services, etc.). A TTC major subway outage does not occur daily and only impacts a hundred thousand people in a multi-hour outage.
Platform doors are worth doing but it's still a struggle to justify them from a financial perspective, even when indirect savings are considered.
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AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
justindw
New Member
a 5% ROI is considered pretty healthy in a non-growth environment. Out of curiosity, where ddid you get the $50 million / year figure from?
rbt
Senior Member
So do I. I'm not sure we are there yet.
From my ass, and I said "well under $50M/year".
As incompletely explained in my comment, a TTC subway outage impacts a very small fraction of the people and time as compared to the total GTA congestion cost number that gets thrown around. Somewhere around 2% of the time (1 hour per week) and 5% of the people from that total congestion impact number. I took the big future congestion cost estimate ($10B/year) and came up with a thumbsuck estimate closer to $10M/year for TTC subway outage economic impact.
A 20 year return is $50M/year. I said "well under" as we don't seem to be anywhere close to getting the money back through indirect economic improvements.
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justindw
New Member
M II A II R II K
Senior Member
That bitching blind guy regularly causes enough of a fuss over safety, and was instrumental in starting subway stop announcements. Now complains about platform edges and how the new Eglinton Line platforms won't be satisfactory. Platform doors would also solve that issue.
Electrify
Senior Member
Has the TTC ever been sued for suicides and deaths caused by people falling on to the tracks? Perhaps adding a settlement figure to these messes may tip the scale financially in their favour.
Even then, some platforms are clearly not designed to handle the load of passengers they see. Yonge station is a prime example, where there are some spots where the platform is barely wider than a standard sidewalk! Even if you feel that the families of suicide victims are not entitled to a dime despite potentially dangerous design choices, accidental injuries and death could lead to successful litigation.
Even then, some platforms are clearly not designed to handle the load of passengers they see. Yonge station is a prime example, where there are some spots where the platform is barely wider than a standard sidewalk! Even if you feel that the families of suicide victims are not entitled to a dime despite potentially dangerous design choices, accidental injuries and death could lead to successful litigation.
the lemur
Senior Member
The platform width is an issue when someone falls due to crowding, but not when someone jumps with the intent to kill themselves.
the lemur
Senior Member
If you're referring to David Lepofsky, he won his case against the TTC because they actually were required to do the announcements under human-rights and disabilities legislation, but they dragged their feet and came up with every excuse in the book not to bother with it.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
ehlow
Senior Member
You're looking at today's frequency of incidents. Consider that the subway system will be even more crowded and ridership will continue to increase in the future.
This will likely increase the number & frequency if incidents where a rider accidentally falls into the tracks.
This will likely increase the number & frequency if incidents where a rider accidentally falls into the tracks.
rbt
Senior Member
Hmm. Lets try taking this from the other direction then. Again, it's a thumb-suck estimate only. You're welcome to make different assumptions.
How much does a subway delay cost in a persons productivity? Would it interrupt 10% of each and every persons workday? Lets pretend people don't stay late, work through lunch, or do other things to compensate for that infrequent time lost (daily congestion or interruption is much harder to compensate for).
TTC has about 1040 rush-hours of service per year (2 morning and 2 evening hours, weekdays). So, several of these hours (6 hours? to represent the direct impact to every single subway customer?, or ~0.6%) is impacted and has an economic value of $50M. That puts the total TTC subway (not bus or streetcar) contribution to GDP in Toronto at around $80B ( ($50M/0.6%) / 10%).
This makes the total theorized GDP "enablement" around $160B for the TTC as a whole. But the total GTA 2012 GDP was around $270B (Brookings).
With the assumptions above, the $50m/year value is probably much too high because the TTC doesn't 'enable' 60% of the GTA economy to occur. Heck, 905 is over 50% of the GTA GDP and gets near-zero benefit from the TTC.
Any economist majors here? This might make an interesting masters thesis topic for someone.
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