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Transit Fantasy Maps

Remember that almost 1/4 of Yonge riders get on at Finch. The yonge line is assisted by bus feeder routes running in from York region, which has over a million people.

I knew it was a high number but did not realize it was 25%. Has there been any work done on how much relief the Yonge line gets when the Spadina extension is complete? Are a significant number of those York region folks going to divert to the VMCC as their gateway to the subway?
 
the spadina extension is supposed to divert something like 8% of riders of the Yonge line, so yes, Finch will get much less busy.

my number is also a guess, but I take finch to downtown quite regularly and easly 1/4 of the passengers get on at Finch. probably closer to 1/3. (someone can be free to prove me wrong however)
 
If converting the proposed Finch West LRT into a pie in the sky heavy rail linking the airport to, say, McCowan, would that take off any of the southbound crush? I could see people from the Dixon area taking the train to Black Creek Spadina line station and heading south and people from Bridlewood/L'Amoreaux area heading east to the proposed Scarborough subway (if it reaches that far north) or to Don Mills DRL (again, if it reaches that far north).
Extending the Sheppard as heavy rail to weston would help more. Plus Eglinton west will be built by 2030 which is close. The Finch LRT is planned to go east soon, so you may be on to something, just as light rail
 
Eglinton West by 2020? I don't think so insert :rolleyes: The Crosstown (Weston to Kennedy) opens 2020. Planning for Eglinton West hasn't even begun.
Clearly you two are talking about 2 different things. He's talking about the LRT along Eglinton West to Black Creek (replacing the originally planned Eglinton West subway). And your talking about a future extension further west on Eglinton West.
 
Sheppard could have a heavy rail extension to Weston and Rouge Hill on the other. But be run as a commuter line every 15-20 minutes until it warrants higher frequencies.
 

Eglinton West by 2020? I don't think so insert :rolleyes: The Crosstown (Weston to Kennedy) opens 2020. Planning for Eglinton West hasn't even begun.

Clearly you two are talking about 2 different things. He's talking about the LRT along Eglinton West to Black Creek (replacing the originally planned Eglinton West subway). And your talking about a future extension further west on Eglinton West.

My fault, I should have said the eglinton extention to the airport.
 
Lets try to avoid this hyperbole and stick to the numbers.

Sheppard has 4,000 riders.

The right of way LRT can comfortably accommodate 10,000 riders.

The underground LRT can comfortably accommodate 20,000 riders.

So it's reasonable to say that heavy rail subways (Toronto Rocket cars) would be warranted when Sheppard approaches 20,000 riders.

So what you're trying to convince us is that ridership on the Sheppard corridor, from Yonge to Scarborough Centre) will increase five times in the next few decades, enormously outpacing the growth we see anywhere in the GTHA.

That won't be happening anytime soon. I can guarantee it.

Your numbers are a bit higher than what I would have used, but close enough (yours seem closer to peak and not "confortable").

The lower threshold for ridership should be about half the confortable level. Thus, the threshold for subway is closer to 9 or 10k. Using your number, the DRL is not needed (IIRC, the last study had the ridership at about 17k).

Also of interest is the fact that neither the Sheppard or Finch LRT are actually needed. I think their forecast is about 3200 and 2800 respectively (in 2031?). Buses (artics) can handle 3600 ppdph (60 passengers x 60 buses per hour)

Does Sheppard need a subway now - NO
Does Sheppard need an LRT now - NO.

So I suggest using busses in the interim, cancel both those LRT's and build the DRL now. In 10 or 15 years we can revisit the Sheppard situation again, but lets leave the options open for subway or LRT - thus, do not loose the key points needed for construction.


My Calcs:
Median LRT: 200 passengers x 2 car trains x 20 trains per hour = 8,000 ppdph.
Median LRT and higher frequency underground: 200 passengers x 2 car trains x 15 trains per hour + 200 passengers x 3 car trains x 15 trains per hour = 15,000 ppdph. (3 car trains run in underground portion, but frequency lowered to accomodate interlining.
Fully underground LRT: 200 passengers x 3 car trains x 30 trains per hour = 18,000 ppdph.

4 Car Subway: 150 passengers x 4 car trains x 30 trains per hour = 18,000 ppdph.
6 car Subway: 150 passengers x 6 car trains x 30 trains per hour = 27,000 ppdph.
 
The lower threshold for ridership should be about half the confortable level. Thus, the threshold for subway is closer to 9 or 10k. Using your number, the DRL is not needed (IIRC, the last study had the ridership at about 17k).

Also of interest is the fact that neither the Sheppard or Finch LRT are actually needed. I think their forecast is about 3200 and 2800 respectively (in 2031?). Buses (artics) can handle 3600 ppdph (60 passengers x 60 buses per hour)

Does Sheppard need a subway now - NO
Does Sheppard need an LRT now - NO.

If not DRL, then what kind of line will carry the required 17k?

For Sheppard and Finch, the demand forecast seem to be within the BRT capacity, but pretty close to its limit.

So I suggest using busses in the interim, cancel both those LRT's and build the DRL now. In 10 or 15 years we can revisit the Sheppard situation again, but lets leave the options open for subway or LRT - thus, do not loose the key points needed for construction.

If the rest of funding for DRL was on the table and the money transferred from Finch and Sheppard could complete the package, then I would say yes. However if most of funding for DRL is still not committed, cancelling Finch and Sheppard and incurring cancellation penalties, without a clear path to DRL to offset those losses, does not seem like a good idea.

My Calcs:
Median LRT: 200 passengers x 2 car trains x 20 trains per hour = 8,000 ppdph.
Median LRT and higher frequency underground: 200 passengers x 2 car trains x 15 trains per hour + 200 passengers x 3 car trains x 15 trains per hour = 15,000 ppdph. (3 car trains run in underground portion, but frequency lowered to accomodate interlining.
Fully underground LRT: 200 passengers x 3 car trains x 30 trains per hour = 18,000 ppdph.

4 Car Subway: 150 passengers x 4 car trains x 30 trains per hour = 18,000 ppdph.
6 car Subway: 150 passengers x 6 car trains x 30 trains per hour = 27,000 ppdph.

TTC's suybway cars can take 180 passengers, that leads to about 21.5k for 4-car subway and 32.5k for 6-car.
 
Eglinton West by 2020? I don't think so insert :rolleyes: The Crosstown (Weston to Kennedy) opens 2020. Planning for Eglinton West hasn't even begun.

Hopefully if that's the case, they'll eliminate all those minor mid-block stops west of Mount Dennis and operate the line more like a true subway in a trench though the Richview corridor lands (whatever's left of them by then).
 
Not really a map but I saw this on reddit and thought it was pretty cool:

Transit-versus-Cars.gif
 

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