Transit Fantasy Maps

[innsertnamehere]

^26,000 PPHD is the "standard" Toronto subway. (T1 Trains, 3 minute frequencies) Eglinton Crosstown can handle 20,000 in the underground portion. Surface LRTs can handle around 10,000.

38,000 PPHD is what the yonge line will be at once ATC is installed, its currently at 28,000 now that it has the new trains.

I expect the sheppard subway to jump in ridership once the LRT opens. I wouldn't be surprised if it starts to have closer to 5,000 PPHD. Still well within LRT range, yet alone underground LRT.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

^26,000 PPHD is the "standard" Toronto subway. (T1 Trains, 3 minute frequencies) Eglinton Crosstown can handle 20,000 in the underground portion. Surface LRTs can handle around 10,000.

38,000 PPHD is what the yonge line will be at once ATC is installed, its currently at 28,000 now that it has the new trains.

I expect the sheppard subway to jump in ridership once the LRT opens. I wouldn't be surprised if it starts to have closer to 5,000 PPHD. Still well within LRT range, yet alone underground LRT.

Yonge will be at 44,000 pphpd according to Metrolinx.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "standard" Toronto Subway. Are we talking about peak ridership? And why would T1 trains with 3 minute frequencies be considered "standard" when our most used subway will run exclusively on TRs with ATC and just over 90 second frequencies.

Anyways I'm nitpicking. Sheppard ridership could triple, and it still wouldn't be anywhere close to necessitating a subway. This shouldn't even be up for debate.

 

[andrewpmk]

The Sheppard Subway requires something like a $7 subsidy per passenger to operate.

The Sheppard Subway will have ~4,000 PPHPD. The LRT can handle well over twice that ridership.

Subway capacities in Toronto typically varies from about 30,000 ppbdp to 44,000.Thats 7 to 11 times what is needed on Sheppard.

There is no debate about this. The numbers speak for themselves. The Sheppard Subway has been and continues to be an enormous waste of money. Any extensions of this line would be incredibly foolish.

The ridership projections for these lines tend to be extremely inaccurate.

The Sheppard subway would attract more riders than the Sheppard LRT, because transferring at Don Mills is annoying and because the Sheppard LRT proposal has far too many stops. If a Don Mills subway were built as far north as Sheppard then Sheppard LRT/subway ridership would go up. The same is true if North York Centre employment had a resurgence like downtown has had in the last few years. (Neither North York Centre nor downtown saw very much office space built in the 1990s and early 2000s). If more condos get built along Sheppard Avenue (Sheppard Avenue has a very high concentration of new condo development) ridership would go up.

If the Sheppard subway were extended both east to Scarborough Centre and west to the airport, but nothing were built on Eglinton, then the Sheppard subway would probably be very busy. Sheppard Avenue has far more new condo development than Eglinton does.

Also it doesn't make a whole lot of sense that a subway along the low density McCowan Road/Danforth Road route is needed but the Sheppard subway (which goes through higher density areas) is not.

 

[innsertnamehere]

^ridership won't triple because of a transfer. if the sheppard subway were to be built you would likely be looking at around 6,000 PPHD on the corridor.

 

[BurlOak]

Yonge will be at 44,000 pphpd according to Metrolinx.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "standard" Toronto Subway. Are we talking about peak ridership? And why would T1 trains with 3 minute frequencies be considered "standard" when our most used subway will run exclusively on TRs with ATC and just over 90 second frequencies.

Anyways I'm nitpicking. Sheppard ridership could triple, and it still wouldn't be anywhere close to necessitating a subway. This shouldn't even be up for debate.

I am curious what the Yonge Subway ridership was back in the 70's when it was extended to Finch. Same question about the B-D Subway when it was extended. If Yonge at 44k capacity is the threshold, that means we should close not only the Sheppard Subway but also the Spadina line (north of Bloor) and probably good parts of the B-D as well.

There seems to be some thought than unless a line is at crush load then it is a failure. As for Sheppard, I am not sure if it is warranted, but I would not be surprised if the numbers are fudged down, just as they were fudged up ten years ago.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

The ridership projections for these lines tend to be extremely inaccurate.

The Sheppard subway would attract more riders than the Sheppard LRT, because transferring at Don Mills is annoying and because the Sheppard LRT proposal has far too many stops. If a Don Mills subway were built as far north as Sheppard then Sheppard LRT/subway ridership would go up. The same is true if North York Centre employment had a resurgence like downtown has had in the last few years. (Neither North York Centre nor downtown saw very much office space built in the 1990s and early 2000s). If more condos get built along Sheppard Avenue (Sheppard Avenue has a very high concentration of new condo development) ridership would go up.

If the Sheppard subway were extended both east to Scarborough Centre and west to the airport, but nothing were built on Eglinton, then the Sheppard subway would probably be very busy. Sheppard Avenue has far more new condo development than Eglinton does.

Also it doesn't make a whole lot of sense that a subway along the low density McCowan Road/Danforth Road route is needed but the Sheppard subway (which goes through higher density areas) is not.

This is bordering on ridiculousness. even if sheppard is built out how is it not going to be empty? The only way to get sheppard proper ridership is to extend it to Weston road, which won't happen. Tiger is right.

But you're right about the McCowan way. Which is why the city will relent and the subway will be built in the SRT corridor so it doesn't become like Sheppard

 

[andrewpmk]

I am curious what the Yonge Subway ridership was back in the 70's when it was extended to Finch. Same question about the B-D Subway when it was extended. If Yonge at 44k capacity is the threshold, that means we should close not only the Sheppard Subway but also the Spadina line (north of Bloor) and probably good parts of the B-D as well.

There seems to be some thought than unless a line is at crush load then it is a failure. As for Sheppard, I am not sure if it is warranted, but I would not be surprised if the numbers are fudged down, just as they were fudged up ten years ago.

You wonder if there was such a thing as a ridership projection back then. If so they probably would have predicted that the Yonge subway north of Eglinton would have carried 5000/hour. Obviously it turned out to be far higher, thanks to huge amounts of high density development between York Mills and Finch.

Luckily we had the sense to build real subways with 6-car platforms in those days. I wonder what would have happened if back in the 1950s, we had decided to put underground streetcars under Yonge Street to save money.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

There seems to be some thought than unless a line is at crush load then it is a failure.

It's not that anything that isn't a crush load is a failure. We don't need 30,000+ pphpd to warrant a subway. However a subway with 4,000 pphpd, most certainly is a failure. 4,000 pphpd could be accommodated by a BRT, let alone LRT.

When Sheppard approaches 20,000 pphpd, then we can have a discussion about extending the subway.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I am curious what the Yonge Subway ridership was back in the 70's when it was extended to Finch. Same question about the B-D Subway when it was extended. If Yonge at 44k capacity is the threshold, that means we should close not only the Sheppard Subway but also the Spadina line (north of Bloor) and probably good parts of the B-D as well.

Lets try to avoid this hyperbole and stick to the numbers.

Sheppard has 4,000 riders.

The right of way LRT can comfortably accommodate 10,000 riders.

The underground LRT can comfortably accommodate 20,000 riders.

So it's reasonable to say that heavy rail subways (Toronto Rocket cars) would be warranted when Sheppard approaches 20,000 riders.

So what you're trying to convince us is that ridership on the Sheppard corridor, from Yonge to Scarborough Centre) will increase five times in the next few decades, enormously outpacing the growth we see anywhere in the GTHA.

That won't be happening anytime soon. I can guarantee it.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Luckily we had the sense to build real subways with 6-car platforms in those days. I wonder what would have happened if back in the 1950s, we had decided to put underground streetcars under Yonge Street to save money.

But of course, you neglected to mention that we went from streetcars first in the case of Yonge. And besides - there are absolutely no corridors with comparable development patterns to Yonge whatsoever - and certainly it wasn't envisioned for, and arguably applies to Sheppard.

re: Sheppard

It is not so much so there is no demand along Sheppard - but we need to look at the fine print and figure out what the pattern of demand is. Is the ridership there because of trip generators along Sheppard? Or is the ridership there because they are using it as a connector route for generally speaking, N/S commutes? If it is the latter, maximizing the capacity of the line isn't nearly as helpful as building more N/S lines. Now you can argue there are network benefits to a transfer free Sheppard line - sure, but does it necessitate putting it entirely underground when there isn't that much demand for the type of E-W route envisioned in the first place?

AoD

 

[andrewpmk]

But of course, you neglected to mention that we went from streetcars first in the case of Yonge. And besides - there are absolutely no corridors with comparable development patterns to Yonge whatsoever - and certainly it wasn't envisioned for, and arguably applies to Sheppard.

As for Yonge North, there were trolleybuses before the subway extension was built from Eglinton to Finch. The streetcar had long since been removed by then. This subway was rather underused when it first opened but with massive redevelopment, it is now extremely overcrowded.

In the case of routes like Sheppard, I think that the argument that there were overcrowded streetcars before is no longer relevant. Remember that when the original Yonge and Bloor-Danforth subways were built, the current freeway system did not exist. Now Highway 401 is the busiest highway in the world, and the Gardiner and DVP are also very busy. The section of the 401 running parallel to the Sheppard subway carries over 6x as many people as the Sheppard subway.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Remember that almost 1/4 of Yonge riders get on at Finch. The yonge line is assisted by bus feeder routes running in from York region, which has over a million people.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

But of course, you neglected to mention that we went from streetcars first in the case of Yonge. And besides - there are absolutely no corridors with comparable development patterns to Yonge whatsoever - and certainly it wasn't envisioned for, and arguably applies to Sheppard.

re: Sheppard

It is not so much so there is no demand along Sheppard - but we need to look at the fine print and figure out what the pattern of demand is. Is the ridership there because of trip generators along Sheppard? Or is the ridership there because they are using it as a connector route for generally speaking, N/S commutes? If it is the latter, maximizing the capacity of the line isn't nearly as helpful as building more N/S lines. Now you can argue there are network benefits to a transfer free Sheppard line - sure, but does it necessitate putting it entirely underground when there isn't that much demand for the type of E-W route envisioned in the first place?

AoD

As for Yonge North, there were trolleybuses before the subway extension was built from Eglinton to Finch. The streetcar had long since been removed by then. This subway was rather underused when it first opened but with massive redevelopment, it is now extremely overcrowded.

In the case of routes like Sheppard, I think that the argument that there were overcrowded streetcars before is no longer relevant. Remember that when the original Yonge and Bloor-Danforth subways were built, the current freeway system did not exist. Now Highway 401 is the busiest highway in the world, and the Gardiner and DVP are also very busy. The section of the 401 running parallel to the Sheppard subway carries over 6x as many people as the Sheppard subway.

So now the streecars on Yonge don't matter, but full buses on sheppard do? Don't change the arguement. Right now there is not enough ridership, and an extension will be the same.

 

[Hipster Duck]

2. The TTC's official "Subway and RT" map as it is titled is word salad, especially when LRT is being introduced and the SRT is being decommissioned, and there are several LRT-lites around the system. "Rail Network" is much simpler and comprehensive, and this way it advertises the streetcars as potential EW alternative routes. I predict far in the future that single occupant cars will be heavily restricted downtown and that these routes will be given back to transit, pedestrians and cyclists anyways. I don't include anything that rolls on rubber in this map.

Okay, but what's more important: the 502 "Downtowner" and 503 "Kingston Road Tripper", which are limited service, local surface routes, or something like an eventual TTC BRT line from Wilson station to the megahospital at Keele? I don't think you should include something just because it travels on rails and discount something because it travels on rubber tires.

Maybe to play it safe, just include rapid transit: Transit City LRTs and subways. Take the London approach to map-making, which is still the gold standard: the Docklands Light Rail (grade-separated, full stations) gets in, but the Croydon Tramlink (a deluxe streetcar service on par with the 512 or the 501 near Humber) doesn't.

 

[skylyte]

Remember that almost 1/4 of Yonge riders get on at Finch. The yonge line is assisted by bus feeder routes running in from York region, which has over a million people.

If converting the proposed Finch West LRT into a pie in the sky heavy rail linking the airport to, say, McCowan, would that take off any of the southbound crush? I could see people from the Dixon area taking the train to Black Creek Spadina line station and heading south and people from Bridlewood/L'Amoreaux area heading east to the proposed Scarborough subway (if it reaches that far north) or to Don Mills DRL (again, if it reaches that far north).