ducati0000
Active Member
Hello Potash owns %85 of the world market,our country produces more food and more fuel to support every Canadian than the USA,the USA imports %40 of its raw goods.
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Toronto's condo market booms
- Thread starter MikeMang
- Start date
ducati0000
Active Member
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/080924/canada/canada_economy_housing
ML is ONE person offering his own thoughts,I will bet you can find another person to say Canada markets is fine.
ML is ONE person offering his own thoughts,I will bet you can find another person to say Canada markets is fine.
AKS
Senior Member
Not sure about the food since they get more harvests than we do but I don't think US has enough fuel, otherwise their prices wouldn't be driven up so much. Alberta is drawing in most of the money for Canada with their oil sands. That's partly what made the dollar so strong. I don't think it's only Canada that's using the oil from Alberta too. They probably export it to many countries including US.
Not saying Canada won't get unscathed by the US down turn, but it will stagnant our growth.
lowesthangingfruit
Active Member
Of course Harper is going to say everything is fine, what else can he say ??
I was kinda suprised to hear about the spending habits and level of indebtedness of Canadians as being an issue. It had been dogma that we were suppose to be more financially responsible than the US,...but I guess when there's easy money,...it doesn't matter which side of the border you live.
casaguy
Senior Member
New economic climate puts chill on Toronto real-estate prices
LORI MCLEOD AND JENNIFER LEWINGTON
From Friday's Globe and Mail
September 26, 2008 at 4:51 AM EDT
The country's largest housing market, Toronto, is slowing as sales drop and a decade-long run-up in prices stalls.
Recent figures show prices have flatlined across the Toronto region, and in both middle and high ends of the market.
The soft market and forecasts of more of the same ahead do not signal a U.S.-style tumble, experts said yesterday, but rather point to a dawning realization that sellers can no longer count on unrelenting price hikes to boost their worth.
Fuelling the new reality was a move yesterday by two banks - TD Canada Trust and Bank of Montreal - to raise mortgage rates in Canada as fears of inflation resonate through the bond market and U.S. lawmakers edged closer to a deal on a $700-billion (U.S.) bailout plan for Wall Street banks.
"Revise your expectations going forward. It's not a valid assumption," TD Bank chief economist Don Drummond said.
"Unless you are skillful on the timing or you are lucky you don't tend to make a killing on real estate."
Home price declines have already hit Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, and now cracks in the market appear to be spreading into Toronto. Existing home sales activity dropped by 22 per cent in August from the same month a year earlier, while prices edged up by just 0.8 per cent, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.
Though cooling off, the Toronto house market has not hit the wall, according to Mr. Drummond and others.
"We have gently nudged the wall," he said. "I expect barely positive [price rises] over the next little while." But he went on to ask and answer his own question: "Are they going to come down Miami style? Absolutely not."
According to the Toronto Real Estate Board, average house prices dipped 1 per cent in August over a year earlier but climbed in the first half of September. For the first half of this month, the board recorded 998 sales, a 23-per-cent drop from the same period a year ago.
As of mid-month, the average house price in Toronto was $386,524, up marginally from the same period a year ago and 12 per cent higher than 2006.
There is still a lot of money in the market, contended Michael Polzler, executive vice-president and regional director, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada, with people with realistic expectations still able to sell their homes.
But he cautioned that homes are likely to stay on the market longer than during the height of the boom, and sellers shouldn't expect bidding wars.
This is good news for buyers who until recently had no crack at markets such as central Toronto, he said.
Now these shoppers may have a chance to get into desirable markets and make more careful purchases than they did in the past, he said.
In the luxury home market, Toronto was among five of 15 cities that experienced year-over-year sales declines, according to a report yesterday by RE/MAX.
Sales of homes listed at $1.5-million or more dropped from 505 in the first seven months of 2007, to 487 in the same period this year.
The timing of the slowdown comes as Toronto homeowners brace for word next month from the Municipal Property Tax Assessment Corporation on changes in home property values since 2005.
Earlier this month, the agency said that as of January, 2008, property values have risen an average of 20 per cent across the province.
With a report from The Canadian Press
PAST THE PEAK?
Average house price in the city of Toronto
Aug. 2006 $344,419
Aug. 2007 $381,681
Aug. 2008 $377,990
Volume of sales
Aug. 2006 2,706
Aug. 2007 3,243
Aug. 2008 2,437
LORI MCLEOD AND JENNIFER LEWINGTON
From Friday's Globe and Mail
September 26, 2008 at 4:51 AM EDT
The country's largest housing market, Toronto, is slowing as sales drop and a decade-long run-up in prices stalls.
Recent figures show prices have flatlined across the Toronto region, and in both middle and high ends of the market.
The soft market and forecasts of more of the same ahead do not signal a U.S.-style tumble, experts said yesterday, but rather point to a dawning realization that sellers can no longer count on unrelenting price hikes to boost their worth.
Fuelling the new reality was a move yesterday by two banks - TD Canada Trust and Bank of Montreal - to raise mortgage rates in Canada as fears of inflation resonate through the bond market and U.S. lawmakers edged closer to a deal on a $700-billion (U.S.) bailout plan for Wall Street banks.
"Revise your expectations going forward. It's not a valid assumption," TD Bank chief economist Don Drummond said.
"Unless you are skillful on the timing or you are lucky you don't tend to make a killing on real estate."
Home price declines have already hit Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, and now cracks in the market appear to be spreading into Toronto. Existing home sales activity dropped by 22 per cent in August from the same month a year earlier, while prices edged up by just 0.8 per cent, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.
Though cooling off, the Toronto house market has not hit the wall, according to Mr. Drummond and others.
"We have gently nudged the wall," he said. "I expect barely positive [price rises] over the next little while." But he went on to ask and answer his own question: "Are they going to come down Miami style? Absolutely not."
According to the Toronto Real Estate Board, average house prices dipped 1 per cent in August over a year earlier but climbed in the first half of September. For the first half of this month, the board recorded 998 sales, a 23-per-cent drop from the same period a year ago.
As of mid-month, the average house price in Toronto was $386,524, up marginally from the same period a year ago and 12 per cent higher than 2006.
There is still a lot of money in the market, contended Michael Polzler, executive vice-president and regional director, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada, with people with realistic expectations still able to sell their homes.
But he cautioned that homes are likely to stay on the market longer than during the height of the boom, and sellers shouldn't expect bidding wars.
This is good news for buyers who until recently had no crack at markets such as central Toronto, he said.
Now these shoppers may have a chance to get into desirable markets and make more careful purchases than they did in the past, he said.
In the luxury home market, Toronto was among five of 15 cities that experienced year-over-year sales declines, according to a report yesterday by RE/MAX.
Sales of homes listed at $1.5-million or more dropped from 505 in the first seven months of 2007, to 487 in the same period this year.
The timing of the slowdown comes as Toronto homeowners brace for word next month from the Municipal Property Tax Assessment Corporation on changes in home property values since 2005.
Earlier this month, the agency said that as of January, 2008, property values have risen an average of 20 per cent across the province.
With a report from The Canadian Press
PAST THE PEAK?
Average house price in the city of Toronto
Aug. 2006 $344,419
Aug. 2007 $381,681
Aug. 2008 $377,990
Volume of sales
Aug. 2006 2,706
Aug. 2007 3,243
Aug. 2008 2,437
ducati0000
Active Member
again the nay sayers are comparing the ultra highs of the a market the last 3 years...if you go by normal growth patterns of a healthy market 2009 will be on a regular sliding scale of home sales of the last 10 years.The ultra hot over priced market of course will show a downturn but the sensible markets are slowing no decrease in house prices.All the banks in Canada are coming out and saying the melt down in the investment banks in the US has little or no effect on their operations.
TKTKTK
Senior Member
The market crosses a line
Markets tend not to correct sideways
CAROLYN IRELAND
From Friday's Globe and Mail
September 26, 2008 at 12:00 AM EDT
For the first time in more than a decade, the average house price in Toronto has declined. The relentless upward trajectory in prices reversed course last month, making dwellings cheaper than they were in August, 2007.
The slip was small — only 1 per cent — but some economists see it as a significant psychological shift. They say Canada faces the prospect of lower house prices in the coming months after 2008 sales decelerated through the end of August.
"After six years of unsustainable growth, prices have run smack into the affordability wall," says Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. "Demand is sagging, listings are at record highs, and prospective first-time buyers are choosing to rent rather than own."
In the Greater Toronto Area, some neighbourhoods bucked the trend and saw sales rise last month. The bright spots included Pickering, where semi-detached houses were particularly popular, and Halton Hills, where buyers sought row houses.
In Aurora, people were eager for detached homes, and in the posh section of Rosedale, sales of condominiums and stately mansions pushed the number of transactions up 81 per cent in August.
In Rosedale, 29 houses — all of them detached — traded owners in the first eight months of this year, with an average tally of $2,336,472. That marks a 6-per-cent increase from the $2,203,457 average price recorded through the end of August, 2007.
The broader picture shows year-over-year sales slid again in August, according to data from the Toronto Real Estate Board.
Toronto sales fell 25 per cent to 2,437 transactions last month. In August, 2007, 3,243 properties changed hands. Across the GTA, the drop was 22 per cent for the same period.
TREB reports the average price in Toronto dipped to $377,990 last month from $381,681 in August last year. For the GTA, the average price edged up 1 per cent last month to $364,886 from $361,890 in the same period of 2007.
TREB president Maureen O'Neill called the August numbers "solid." And since 2007 was a record year, she points out that sales and prices for 2008 still appear healthy within a long-term perspective.
Mr. Guatieri notes the average house price in Canada's major markets soared 78 per cent from early 2002 to late 2007. Though that doesn't keep pace with the 92 per cent advance in the U.S. from mid-2000 to mid-2006, Canadian prices have increased more than twice as fast as income, he says in a report.
Assuming continued moderate income gains, the economist figures, prices would need to fall about 9 per cent over two years to restore a normal ratio to income, thus returning prices to levels of mid-2006.
Homeowners who purchased six years ago would still potentially pocket strong capital gains if they were to sell, but those who bought during the past two years would face losses, he says. Potential losses would only be temporary, however, because the long-term trend in household income, hence prices, is upward.
Mr. Guatieri adds a decline isn't guaranteed: Prices could simply stagnate for a while. "However, overpriced markets tend not to correct sideways."
Prices are likely to weaken most in the areas that have seen the greatest gains, which points to Alberta and B.C.
Markets tend not to correct sideways
CAROLYN IRELAND
From Friday's Globe and Mail
September 26, 2008 at 12:00 AM EDT
For the first time in more than a decade, the average house price in Toronto has declined. The relentless upward trajectory in prices reversed course last month, making dwellings cheaper than they were in August, 2007.
The slip was small — only 1 per cent — but some economists see it as a significant psychological shift. They say Canada faces the prospect of lower house prices in the coming months after 2008 sales decelerated through the end of August.
"After six years of unsustainable growth, prices have run smack into the affordability wall," says Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. "Demand is sagging, listings are at record highs, and prospective first-time buyers are choosing to rent rather than own."
In the Greater Toronto Area, some neighbourhoods bucked the trend and saw sales rise last month. The bright spots included Pickering, where semi-detached houses were particularly popular, and Halton Hills, where buyers sought row houses.
In Aurora, people were eager for detached homes, and in the posh section of Rosedale, sales of condominiums and stately mansions pushed the number of transactions up 81 per cent in August.
In Rosedale, 29 houses — all of them detached — traded owners in the first eight months of this year, with an average tally of $2,336,472. That marks a 6-per-cent increase from the $2,203,457 average price recorded through the end of August, 2007.
The broader picture shows year-over-year sales slid again in August, according to data from the Toronto Real Estate Board.
Toronto sales fell 25 per cent to 2,437 transactions last month. In August, 2007, 3,243 properties changed hands. Across the GTA, the drop was 22 per cent for the same period.
TREB reports the average price in Toronto dipped to $377,990 last month from $381,681 in August last year. For the GTA, the average price edged up 1 per cent last month to $364,886 from $361,890 in the same period of 2007.
TREB president Maureen O'Neill called the August numbers "solid." And since 2007 was a record year, she points out that sales and prices for 2008 still appear healthy within a long-term perspective.
Mr. Guatieri notes the average house price in Canada's major markets soared 78 per cent from early 2002 to late 2007. Though that doesn't keep pace with the 92 per cent advance in the U.S. from mid-2000 to mid-2006, Canadian prices have increased more than twice as fast as income, he says in a report.
Assuming continued moderate income gains, the economist figures, prices would need to fall about 9 per cent over two years to restore a normal ratio to income, thus returning prices to levels of mid-2006.
Homeowners who purchased six years ago would still potentially pocket strong capital gains if they were to sell, but those who bought during the past two years would face losses, he says. Potential losses would only be temporary, however, because the long-term trend in household income, hence prices, is upward.
Mr. Guatieri adds a decline isn't guaranteed: Prices could simply stagnate for a while. "However, overpriced markets tend not to correct sideways."
Prices are likely to weaken most in the areas that have seen the greatest gains, which points to Alberta and B.C.
Alvar
Active Member
Well...We KNEW it was coming. Again, Oh! What a time we had!
TrickyRicky
Senior Member
Never, never, never believe what the financial and real estate industries feed us. Their strategy of dis-information is choreographed. Let's say you acted defensively and weren't caught up in the last few years of price inflation excess. We need to recognize that a notable portion of people were. Who do you think lenders and governments and industries go after when the marginal players get in trouble or wiped out? They go after the sound prudent players. So my point is using a hypothetical example if only 10% of people behaved in a very risky manner, this does not mean 90% of people are OK. If you think of the system as an onion with the powerful at it's core, the shock of the 10% of risky people starts peeling layers away from the skin endangering each successive layer. So it is largely irrelevent that the decreases we are seeing are based on historically high numbers, what matters to us is how many people will be caught with their pants down and how the powerful, those at the core of the onion, will re-distributed their losses. In the US we are seeing an extreme example of this. The average American behaved in a sound prudent manner, but the impact of the risky players is peeling layers away to the extent that it is endangering the entire sytem.
borisp
Active Member
2007 Sales number has a lot to do with people rushing into buying something before that new tax was implemented by D.M.
TrickyRicky
Senior Member
Prices already off by 6% in the city of Toronto and we haven't even gotten past the tip of the iceberg. If commodity prices bust (and they will at some point) this could get real ugly over the next 6 months when the trickle down of frozen credit, rising unemployment and evaporating asset wealth hit consumers with there full force. I think the argument that Canadians (as opposed to Canadian banks) will be better off than the US is becoming more suspect by the day. Particularly in some markets we have huge downside risk from falling commodity prices that could obliterate present conventional theory.
confusion
Active Member
But last night in the debate Harper said that there is no economic crisis... and then today Flaherty said the same thing.
The reform-conservatives wouldn't lie to us would they?
*sarcasm*
The reform-conservatives wouldn't lie to us would they?
*sarcasm*
Roy G Biv
Senior Member
Given that speculation is the major driving force behind the markets, it would be irresponsible of them to tell "the truth".
lowesthangingfruit
Active Member
I still have not come across a plausible arguement yet as to why Toronto or Canada for that matter would be immune to this contagion.
One thing that would be good to keep focus on is the jobs #s coming out of Canada as it hasn't fallen off the cliff (yet). But if I were in the financial, service, tourism, real estate, construction, manufacturing, high tech, and related fields of employment,....I would make sure I have a plan B in case the real sh*t hits a real fan. This by the way was one of the arguements of why downtown TO condo prices will keep rising to the moon cuz more people will be working downtown and want to live downtown. Not saying everyone will be out of a job, but suspect there will be less hiring and more layoffs coming if liquidity and credit freezes up for prolonged periods.
Chromeboy007
New Member
Thank god for the bailout! The Republicans did something right for once.