Toronto Union Pearson Express | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx | MMM Group Limited

[TOareaFan]

I hope this is the outcome. (To continue the ad nauseum), since 2008 the GTS/UPX project has morphed - from a promise of an airport express link and improved GO service, to delivery of a really nice airport express link, a reduction in VIA and GO capacity, and a promise of improved GO service - with no timetable or end date specified, even after seven years' work.

You don't have to convince me to be disappointed in the slow (some might say late) delivery of increased GO service......but to say there has been a reduction in GO capacity is incorrect...there is vastly improved capacity to add GO service but it just has not happened yet.

Remember that if nothing changes, RER will make a left turn at Eglinton and head for Mississauga - while Weston, North Etobicoke, Malton, Bramalea and beyond will get nothing.

That is, again, incorrect. GO/Metrolinx have as recently as this past month confirmed that the first phase of RER will go to Bramalea. Yes, the Mayor of Toronto has proposed a service that uses the same corridor as GO to Eglinton and makes a left turn. There is absolutely no hint that GO/ML will accept this as a replacement to the RER.

What the Weston vs UPX tale demonstrates is - the squeaky wheel does get greased. The challenge is now up to Etobicoke, Mississauga, Brampton to continue pressure on Metrolinx to finish the job. Otherwise we will move on to an RER debate that will benefit Scarboro, Markham, and Mississauga but not the Georgetown South area.

The Mayors of all the communities outside 416 on the line are working together to keep such pressure on. The one 416 station/community on the line will benefit from that even if their Mayor is strong willed enough to not give in on his heavy rail service on Eglinton idea.

Having seen the finished product, I would declare some of my personal misgivings as dead issues. But one has to observe, $15 Weston to Toronto might attract one passenger an hour, whereas $7 Weston to Toronto might attract three passengers per hour. If revenue is the goal.......even I can do that math!

- Paul

Your math leaves out one thing...capacity management........if all your $7 rides prevent the $19 user (the target market customer making the trip between Union and Pearson) finding a seat and adopting the service long term then each of your $7 customers is depriving the service of the $19 customer. Yes..on your and my ride yesterday there was lots of room for people at lower fares...but it was day 1 on a saturday........no time to judge the ridership potential at the current fare model. You may speculate, and I might counter with my speculation but only time will tell....and time needs to measured in 2 - 3 years...not the first 18 hours.

 

[mdrejhon]

That is, again, incorrect. GO/Metrolinx have as recently as this past month confirmed that the first phase of RER will go to Bramalea. Yes, the Mayor of Toronto has proposed a service that uses the same corridor as GO to Eglinton and makes a left turn. There is absolutely no hint that GO/ML will accept this as a replacement to the RER.

It can still be the same system. Every other train turns onto Eglinton, the other continues to Bramalea. UK, Japan, France, have systems like this. In fact.

The Calgary C-Train does it too! Two train routes stay the same downtown but split apart in the suburbs!!!! They alternate taking turns on the "Y" outwards in the suburbs.

Weston would be the middle of the "Y".

So "SmartTrack GO RER" (Same thing) is the Bramalea AND Eglinton (Same thing)

You can easily run SmartTrack with 7.5 minute headways, with 15 minutes on Eglinton and 15 minutes on Bramalea -- the trains alternate past Weston. For the eastern part of the system they may short-turn every other train, so it's still only 15 minutes to Unionville, but that we get a lovely 7.5 minute subway frequency in the 416 part of the SmartTrack system, before the Weston split-off (taking turns) in the west, and the short-turn part way to Unionville in the east. So outer is 15 minute and inner is 7.5 minute. Europe, Japan, etc does this...

Some parts of Europe runs 3-minute headways between commuter trains on the SAME track. We can do it too, after the USRC signaling upgrade and PTC (Positive Train Control) systems that helps make that safe. The Bloor is a pinch point, but there's room to have six tracks through there, and the fourth track north of Weston is needed. But they need to do it anyway whether it's 15 or 7.5 minute service. It is my understanding the UPX train is compatible with these train control system that helps make tight headways easier. Once the Georgetown corridor is fully milked out... No big deal...

Much ado about nothing...

Plenty of precedent...

The Toronto and Metrolinx PDFs indicate they're working to make it the same system, Eglinton OR Bramalea OR both...

It is not black and white...

Stop making it black and white...

I still hope they extend ECLRT instead, and make SmartTrack cheaper. Eglinton grade separation is stupidly expensive. But again, it is not black and white if Eglinton is approved. Bramalea and Eglinton is STILL the same train even if both runs. There's enough government PDF evidence that the horse is starting to look dead... Toronto Star and National Post hasn't necessarily fully caught on that SmartTrack, GO RER, Bramalea, and Eglinton, are ALL the same thing... We can write and tweet to them, remind them, so the population is marketed better on this, as true, knowledge about train systems is not an average Toronto citizen's shining knowledge asset.

Get back to "Is Eglinton worth it"? (probably not IMHO). Or the debate "Population doesn't realize Bramalea and Eglinton SmartTrack GO RER is actually the same thing". That's a better debate.

 

[TOareaFan]

It can still be the same system. Every other train turns onto Eglinton, the other continues to Bramalea. UK, Japan, France, have systems like this. In fact.

The Calgary C-Train does it too! Two train routes stay the same downtown but split apart in the suburbs!!!! They alternate taking turns on the "Y" outwards in the suburbs.

Weston would be the middle of the "Y".

So "SmartTrack GO RER" (Same thing) is the Bramalea AND Eglinton (Same thing)

You can easily run SmartTrack with 7.5 minute headways, with 15 minutes on Eglinton and 15 minutes on Bramalea -- the trains alternate past Weston. For the eastern part of the system they may short-turn every other train, so it's still only 15 minutes to Unionville, but that we get a lovely 7.5 minute subway frequency in the 416 part of the SmartTrack system, before the Weston split-off (taking turns) in the west, and the short-turn part way to Unionville in the east. So outer is 15 minute and inner is 7.5 minute. Europe, Japan, etc does this...

Some parts of Europe runs 3-minute headways between commuter trains on the SAME track. We can do it too, after the USRC signaling upgrade and PTC (Positive Train Control) systems that helps make that safe. The Bloor is a pinch point, but there's room to have six tracks through there, and the fourth track north of Weston is needed. But they need to do it anyway whether it's 15 or 7.5 minute service. It is my understanding the UPX train is compatible with these train control system that helps make tight headways easier. Once the Georgetown corridor is fully milked out... No big deal...

Much ado about nothing...

Plenty of precedent...

The Toronto and Metrolinx PDFs indicate they're working to make it the same system, Eglinton OR Bramalea OR both...

It is not black and white...

Stop making it black and white...

I get that they can be a shared/split/hybrid system but you just wasted a lot of key strokes countering a point I never made.

I was responding to a post that said beyond Eglinton was getting nothing

 

[Dan416]

https://www.flickr.com/photos/chriskillam/18541753815/in/album-72157653739955478/lightbox/

My new shoes are in this picture (blue New Balance)

 

[crs1026]

You don't have to convince me to be disappointed in the slow (some might say late) delivery of increased GO service......but to say there has been a reduction in GO capacity is incorrect...there is vastly improved capacity to add GO service but it just has not happened yet.

I stand by the lack of capacity statement. The original line had double track from Bathurst Street to Keele, with crossovers at Parkdale. There was also a passing siding - which was well used - at Woodbine. The new configuration has a single track, shared by Barrie and Kitchener trains, with no passing capability east of Wice. There is no longer a capability for early rush trains to double back and make a second run. That affects the number of trainsets required. And it virtually prevents two-way peak period service for either GO or VIA.

UPX seems to have adopted left-hand running for its trains, which suggests that the long term plan is to shift eastbound GO/VIA trains to the middle track to interleave with UPX. That's good in theory, and may work for GO, but will not work for express movements. They will catch up with UPX trains and slow down.

I have seen no public statement putting either money or procurement behind finishing the fourth track on this line. That's my beef. My theory (call me a conspiracy junkie) is that once the commitment to have UPX in place for Pan Am was made, the entire GO improvement side of the project became contingency for UPX. We may never know how much scope was cut from the GO side, or how many dollars were shifted, to ensure UPX was delivered on time. I doubt GO will ever make a TYSSE-style admission that the overall project is now underfunded. It will all be swept under the carpet. The line may be completed over time, and history rewritten accordingly, but that's not the style of transparency and integrity-based project management that we deserve.

That is, again, incorrect. GO/Metrolinx have as recently as this past month confirmed that the first phase of RER will go to Bramalea. Yes, the Mayor of Toronto has proposed a service that uses the same corridor as GO to Eglinton and makes a left turn. There is absolutely no hint that GO/ML will accept this as a replacement to the RER.

Fair enough, I was intermingling RER and ST in my thinking. If GO stands firm on RER on the Weston, that's great.

Your math leaves out one thing...capacity management........if all your $7 rides prevent the $19 user (the target market customer making the trip between Union and Pearson) finding a seat and adopting the service long term then each of your $7 customers is depriving the service of the $19 customer. Yes..on your and my ride yesterday there was lots of room for people at lower fares...but it was day 1 on a saturday........no time to judge the ridership potential at the current fare model. You may speculate, and I might counter with my speculation but only time will tell....and time needs to measured in 2 - 3 years...not the first 18 hours.

True enough....if we agree that it will take time for UPX to build to that no-spare-capacity threshold for the full distance, and also with time RER will be put in place, then what's the harm in filling the x% of unfilled seats with Weston or Bloor commuters untiil RER arrives? UPX should be exploring the price point that fills every seat....it may be $10 from Weston, or $6, or whatever.

- Paul

 

[drum118]

It can still be the same system. Every other train turns onto Eglinton, the other continues to Bramalea. UK, Japan, France, have systems like this. In fact.

The Calgary C-Train does it too! Two train routes stay the same downtown but split apart in the suburbs!!!! They alternate taking turns on the "Y" outwards in the suburbs.

Weston would be the middle of the "Y".

So "SmartTrack GO RER" (Same thing) is the Bramalea AND Eglinton (Same thing)

You can easily run SmartTrack with 7.5 minute headways, with 15 minutes on Eglinton and 15 minutes on Bramalea -- the trains alternate past Weston. For the eastern part of the system they may short-turn every other train, so it's still only 15 minutes to Unionville, but that we get a lovely 7.5 minute subway frequency in the 416 part of the SmartTrack system, before the Weston split-off (taking turns) in the west, and the short-turn part way to Unionville in the east. So outer is 15 minute and inner is 7.5 minute. Europe, Japan, etc does this...

Some parts of Europe runs 3-minute headways between commuter trains on the SAME track. We can do it too, after the USRC signaling upgrade and PTC (Positive Train Control) systems that helps make that safe. The Bloor is a pinch point, but there's room to have six tracks through there, and the fourth track north of Weston is needed. But they need to do it anyway whether it's 15 or 7.5 minute service. It is my understanding the UPX train is compatible with these train control system that helps make tight headways easier. Once the Georgetown corridor is fully milked out... No big deal...

Much ado about nothing...

Plenty of precedent...

The Toronto and Metrolinx PDFs indicate they're working to make it the same system, Eglinton OR Bramalea OR both...

It is not black and white...

Stop making it black and white...

I still hope they extend ECLRT instead, and make SmartTrack cheaper. Eglinton grade separation is stupidly expensive. But again, it is not black and white if Eglinton is approved. Bramalea and Eglinton is STILL the same train even if both runs. There's enough government PDF evidence that the horse is starting to look dead... Toronto Star and National Post hasn't necessarily fully caught on that SmartTrack, GO RER, Bramalea, and Eglinton, are ALL the same thing... We can write and tweet to them, remind them, so the population is marketed better on this, as true, knowledge about train systems is not an average Toronto citizen's shining knowledge asset.

Get back to "Is Eglinton worth it"? (probably not IMHO). Or the debate "Population doesn't realize Bramalea and Eglinton SmartTrack GO RER is actually the same thing". That's a better debate.

There is to be 6 tracks at Bloor with tracks 1 & 6 being added as needed. Track 6 is for the Milton Line.

As for a Y, they built provision for a 2th track for a connection between Lambton Yard and CP Mactire sub at the West Toronto Grade Separation. This would allow for a Milton train to use this extra track and connect to a new track to connect to the new line that connects to track 1 at Black Creek. I have call for since day one that an Y be built at the junction of elevated section and the Weston Sub so trains can go west to Brampton, KW and London. This would take a fair amount cars off the road, but would cut into the GTTA revenue for parking there.

Running ECLRT west to the airport is a must as the SmartTrack not going to work there.

Many place around the world have branch line joining a trunk line to the point the trunk line is well service.

You are right when you say the media & the public don't realize that RER and SmartTrack are the same thing other who is running what.

 

[mdrejhon]

https://www.flickr.com/photos/chriskillam/18541753815/in/album-72157653739955478/lightbox/

My new shoes are in this picture (blue New Balance)

The UPX train you are on looks busy. Standees too. Which direction was it going in? How full was the train? What time?

The train certainly looks extremely busy with actual Pearson travellers at some times of the day (as I expected).

Attribution: Chris Kay on flickr (yours).

And this is just a weekend UPX photo that looks full of tourists (plus a few with the free tickets), without business travellers, a prime market of UPX. A busy weekday will be a more real litmus test of UPX success.

I do really expect UPX 2-car trains to overflow on weekday Pearson peak (especially during moments where customs fully staff most booths).

Early morning and late evening trains may be empty, but the "the busiest train of the day" train are already getting full this weekend and I've been hearing there are a few standees already from multiple sources. As I thought, we have a mix of empty UPX trains and full/near-full UPX trains, and lots of in-between (quarter full, half full, three-quarter full).

 

[mdrejhon]

True enough....if we agree that it will take time for UPX to build to that no-spare-capacity threshold for the full distance, and also with time RER will be put in place, then what's the harm in filling the x% of unfilled seats with Weston or Bloor commuters untiil RER arrives? UPX should be exploring the price point that fills every seat....it may be $10 from Weston, or $6, or whatever.

They are right now. Metrolinx said they will tweak the price if necessary.Right now, the "busiest trains of the day" is now getting full or nearly full already. If we force everyone to become standees on half of the trains when cutting price from $27.50 to $15 -- then $15 is an expensive price to just become a standee on a UPX train. We'd get a bad reputation from that. Even at that price, half of the trains can be overpacked, and a quarter of trains can be almost completely empty (e.g. first trains departing Pearson before first flight, and last late trains departing Union after the final flight has already arrived). Even TTC subway trains can have lots of empty seats at some times of the day (e.g. very early Sunday mornings).

So we'll have to see what Metrolinx does to the price. My prediction is that the price will remain untouched this year, as they intentionally chose a quiet day (June 6) to launch to allow ironing out opening day kinks. They will ramp up/down marketing as necessary, and familiarity will go up.

Many of us, myself included, wish that UPX would be a subway rapid transit route, but setting price to $3 or $5 would quickly overcrowd the trains during peak moments. If the traffic dies down a bit after Pan Am, then a price adjustment, like $15 or $20 down from $27.50, who knows -- but I really doubt they would adjust the price quickly, probably will wait for first-year traffic.

I hope this is the outcome. (To continue the ad nauseum), since 2008 the GTS/UPX project has morphed - from a promise of an airport express link and improved GO service, to delivery of a really nice airport express link, a reduction in VIA and GO capacity, and a promise of improved GO service - with no timetable or end date specified, even after seven years' work.

Remember that if nothing changes, RER will make a left turn at Eglinton and head for Mississauga - while Weston, North Etobicoke, Malton, Bramalea and beyond will get nothing.

What the Weston vs UPX tale demonstrates is - the squeaky wheel does get greased. The challenge is now up to Etobicoke, Mississauga, Brampton to continue pressure on Metrolinx to finish the job. Otherwise we will move on to an RER debate that will benefit Scarboro, Markham, and Mississauga but not the Georgetown South area.

Having seen the finished product, I would declare some of my personal misgivings as dead issues. But one has to observe, $15 Weston to Toronto might attract one passenger an hour, whereas $7 Weston to Toronto might attract three passengers per hour. If revenue is the goal.......even I can do that math!

The ticket price includes amortization. Paying the capital cost of UPX (paying off $456M). The break-even of UPX seems roughly ~$5 per seat (maybe a bit less when the whole fleet is 3-car), but since I've since discovered amortization is part of the ticket price, they want to pay off the capital costs as quickly as possible, so the ticket price is really very high.

With some sleuthing, a forum member here and I, weeks ago came to the conclusion that assuming an average price of $23 per paying passenger (some pay Presto, some pay full price), trains only need to be 38% full on average, to be able to pay operating costs AND also ~7% amortization. That was on the assumption of an average of 150 seats per car (half fleet being 2-car and half fleet being 3-car). But I see they're now using mainly 2-car trains at the moment.

Once amortization is paid off, UPX is incredibly profitable even if trains are half empty.

I suppose they have to quickly pay off the disposable diesel trains, since they'll be replaced with electric trains soon.

 

[mdrejhon]

I have seen no public statement putting either money or procurement behind finishing the fourth track on this line. That's my beef. My theory (call me a conspiracy junkie) is that once the commitment to have UPX in place for Pan Am was made, the entire GO improvement side of the project became contingency for UPX. We may never know how much scope was cut from the GO side, or how many dollars were shifted, to ensure UPX was delivered on time. I doubt GO will ever make a TYSSE-style admission that the overall project is now underfunded. It will all be swept under the carpet. The line may be completed over time, and history rewritten accordingly, but that's not the style of transparency and integrity-based project management that we deserve.

You might very well be right in that GO capacity is (momentarily) compromised in some sections of the Georgetown Corridor. The line will definitely be completed over time, if GO RER is proceeding (i.e. not cancelled). It's just probably going to be done under the $13.5bn GO RER electricifation budget or some follow-on budget.

I think this happened with various Lakeshore upgrades and the Lakeshore 30-minute all day initiatives. The 30-min all day was supposed to happen before 2010, but only finally happened in year 2013-2014. That said, broken promises aside, the eventual completion track record has been pretty good as of late compared to other transit agencies, including VIA and TTC, etc.

The ethics are a separate issue altogether (e.g. kicking finishing-up work to a follow-on budget, without calling it a cost overrun), but the Metrolinx eventual shovel-completion track record appears to have been far better than TTC's as of late.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The UPX train you are on looks busy. Standees too. Which direction was it going in? How full was the train? What time?

The train certainly looks extremely busy with actual Pearson travellers at some times of the day (as I expected).

View attachment 47889
Attribution: Chris Kay on flickr (yours).

And this is just a weekend UPX photo that looks full of tourists (plus a few with the free tickets), without business travellers, a prime market of UPX. A busy weekday will be a more real litmus test of UPX success.

I do really expect UPX 2-car trains to overflow on weekday Pearson peak (especially during moments where customs fully staff most booths).

Early morning and late evening trains may be empty, but the "the busiest train of the day" train are already getting full this weekend and I've been hearing there are a few standees already from multiple sources. As I thought, we have a mix of empty UPX trains and full/near-full UPX trains, and lots of in-between (quarter full, half full, three-quarter full).

Assuming that these testimonials are correct, the UPX has been wildly more successful than anticipated. From the studies, we were expecting that at peak hour, approximately 350 passengers per hour to be using the Toronto bound UPX in 2020. The hourly seated capacity of the UPX is a little less than 700 passengers per hour and direction. If the UPX really is standing room only, that means that we've already more than doubled our forecasted ridership for 2020, for at least some parts of the day.

These numbers are a little unbelievable, so I suspect I might be missing some context. Is the UPX currently running at a diminished capacity?

 

[mdrejhon]

These numbers are a little unbelievable, so I suspect I might be missing some context. Is the UPX currently running at a diminished capacity?

It's mostly an all 2-car fleet, so yes. There was supposed to be more 3-car fleet at launch but the cars are still being manufactured.

I have long had a hunch Metrolinx intentionally chose a quiet launch day, to iron out kinks. We haven't seen anything yet -- I really think studies will turn out to be a gross underestimate.

But we will always have empty UPX trains everyday. There are trains heading away from Pearson before the first flight, and there are trains heading towards Pearson after the last flight has landed. Those trains will be empty (except for the unusual commuter or worker), no matter how successful UPX is.

Bunch of tweeted and flicker photos have mentioned trains in one direction were often empty and trains in the other directions were becoming more than half full.

Enough fodder for the anti-UPX and pro-UPX people to criticize. We'll see editorials on both success and failure of UPX. Count on it!

 

[LNahid2000]

I don't know why you guys are judging ridership based on observations of opening day.

 

[mdrejhon]

I don't know why you guys are judging ridership based on observations of opening day.

I'm not.

But look at the Toronto Star, National Post, and Globe & Mail commentators saying UPX will be a failure!

Opening day ridership will be lighter than ongoing ridership. Even with the slight insignificant surge caused by the free ticketholders.

 

[LNahid2000]

I'm not.

But look at the Toronto Star, National Post, and Globe & Mail commentators saying UPX will be a failure!

Opening day ridership will be lighter than ongoing ridership. Even with the slight insignificant surge caused by the free ticketholders.

Insignificant surge? I heard about foamers riding the UPE 6+ times yesterday using free tickets. Lets wait a few weeks to see the actual ridership rather than making predictions like, "Opening day ridership will be lighter than ongoing ridership."

 

[mdrejhon]

This be true, but significant numbers departing from Pearson towards Union were carrying baggage!

The difference in people towards Pearson and coming from Pearson was highly asymmetric, and out-populated the 1000 limited free ticket holders. The math shows that the free ticket holders were insignificant. There are about 10,000 seat-rides per direction per day (20,000 if including both directions), and only 1,500 tickets. Less than 1,500 tickets were likely actually used up as a few people reserved tickets only to not use them up -- see UrbanTorontoers earlier this thread that got tickets but wasn't sure if they'd use them, as an example. Only the railfans took several rides, and not all 1,500 people are railfans that would ride multiple times in both directions. Only the mostly empty UPX trains usually were high percentage of free ticketholders, but the "Pearson Surges" (when trains became more than half full) would likely have less than 10% free ticket holders. Free ticket holders aren't usually the ones flying from Pearson, but ones who would return. So return traffic would balance incoming traffic far more, if it was mostly free riders.

I stand by the word "insignificant" (<10% of a full UPX train) due to mathematics and traffic asymmetry

But yes, let's see how the traffic shapes up. It could become less popular, or more popular. True it could either direction. I think it will become gradually more and more popular, however, as it becomes more widely known.