Toronto Ontario Line 3 | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx

[Northern Light]

Setting aside the merits of the SSE.

I offer 2 thoughts:

1) We're wandering a bit Off Topic here.

2) Likelihood aside, many of those single-family homes on McCowan are in fact deep enough to support redevelopment.

I wondered that myself, and so I measured; and I compared to the new infill condos going on Kingston Road btw Victoria Park and Birchmount.

I ascertained that a lot depth of ~40M is workable; and that's what most of those homes have to offer.

That fact, unto itself is not meant to interject me into the SSE discussion, nor this comparison w/Stouffville.

Just putting out there that much of this could be done w/o expropriation.

Now Expropriation would make it much easier.

South of Brimorton, the properties get consistently shallower, and a developer would likely have to take 2 rows of homes back to back to assemble a usable parcel.

This remains the likely scenario southwards until one reaches the apartment neighbourhoods 1/2 way btw Eglinton and Lawrence.

But many of those blocks are similarly laid out in a fairly easy to assemble configuration.

The question of whether a blanket upzoning will attract the requisite interest is a different matter entirely.

And completely apart from the SSE broader discussion.

 

[warrens]

If the Ford government wanted to move forward with the DRL/OL as expeditiously as possible, they would’ve proceeded with the Relief Line South as planned, and provided funding for the northern portion. The result would’ve been a project of similar scope and cost as the OL, plausibly delivered by 2028 (at least the southern portion), and likely under construction today.

Relief Line South wasn't far enough along by the time it was cancelled for construction to have begun by now. They were only 10% finished the design in early 2019, and COVID would've happened regardless.

 

[syn]

Regarding SSE, there isn't really an overground route available that makes a lot of sense. I know it's tempting to say "use the existing Scarborough RT route!", and in years gone by I thought the same. But we should all be able to agree that the existing RT route has been an absolute failure in attracting riders, right? Pre-COVID, Ellesmere and Midland each served a couple thousand people a day.... after 35 years! The vast majority of people taking the RT are on it for the whole trip.

Ultimately I don't think it's the route that's the big problem.

Scarborough wasn't really designed to support higher order transit.

The SSE route isn't exactly brimming with potential. Even the city has admitted it doesn't expect that corridor will see significant densification.

There's also the bigger picture of being able to create a "subway loop" in Scarborough. Ford has been a proponent of extending Sheppard subway east to the STC for at least a decade now, and so it's no surprise that the SSE is set to go to Sheppard via McCowan.

I know a Crosstown-like LRT is a tempting alternative to a subway but it wouldn't attract significant new ridership and wouldn't be significantly faster than existing bus service.

Why does their need to be a subway loop? There's no demand for it.

I don't think the new subway will attract much new ridership either - certainly not enough to justify it's existence.

A well thought out LRT plan would provide dramatically enhanced transit for Scarborough.

 

[NoahB]

Relief Line South wasn't far enough along by the time it was cancelled for construction to have begun by now. They were only 10% finished the design in early 2019, and COVID would've happened regardless.

The city was ready enough to start shopping for TBMs at the time.

TTC Requests EOI for Relief Line South TBM Procurement

TTC intends to procure metro size Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs) for the twin bored tunnels for the proposed Relief Line South (RLS) subway transit line.

tunnelingonline.com

 

[syn]

Relief Line South wasn't far enough along by the time it was cancelled for construction to have begun by now. They were only 10% finished the design in early 2019, and COVID would've happened regardless.

I could swear they were past 15% when it was cancelled.

 

[NoahB]

I could swear they were past 15% when it was cancelled.

From the Globe and Mail link on Jan 19 2019:

After the event, DRL project head Malcolm MacKay said that 10 per cent of the design work had been done. In the process of reaching that point, he said, the team came up with various ways to save time. Mr. MacKay said that shovels could go in the ground for the project by next year, including starting work on the excavation where the machine that bores the tunnel will be launched.

 

[Coolstar]

From the Globe and Mail link on Jan 19 2019:

Could be in between 10-15%. Considering that the Relief Line was officially cancelled in June.

 

[warrens]

Ultimately I don't think it's the route that's the big problem.
Scarborough wasn't really designed to support higher order transit.
The SSE route isn't exactly brimming with potential. Even the city has admitted it doesn't expect that corridor will see significant densification.

You really ought to know by now that TTC subway stations don't create densification on their own. Runnymede, Jane, Royal York, Ossington, Coxwell, Lansdowne, Pape, Woodbine, Dupont... the list goes on and on.

Serving already-extant needs has a lot of validity on its own -- and the Lawrence/McCowan stop makes a lot of sense here because of the hospital.

Why does their need to be a subway loop? There's no demand for it.

There's plenty of justification for an eastern extension to the subway on Sheppard. In addition to being able to provide a connection at Agincourt GO, the Sheppard corridor is one of the densest areas in the city outside of downtown. The street itself is an enormously busy east-west route. Dozens of apartment buildings, tons of commercial and retail businesses. Not as busy as Finch, sure, but surely busier than Steeles or York Mills/Ellesmere. If "densification" is what gets you out of bed in the morning, there are endless opportunities for that, too.

But getting downtown from this part of town is really tough -- I know someone who commutes from one of the apartment buildings right on Sheppard, to the corner of Yonge & Bloor. They despise the Yonge portion of the route, especially in the afternoons. Coming in to downtown from the east via this so-called "subway loop", combined with the offsetting effect of the OL, would provide a sizable amount of capacity relief on the Yonge line.

After all, Sheppard is tied with Eglinton for 4th-busiest subway station in this city, and thus one of the largest contributors to the daily crunch.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

If the Ford government wanted to move forward with the DRL/OL as expeditiously as possible, they would’ve proceeded with the Relief Line South as planned, and provided funding for the northern portion. The result would’ve been a project of similar scope and cost as the OL, plausibly delivered by 2028 (at least the southern portion), and likely under construction today.

Relief Line South wasn't far enough along by the time it was cancelled for construction to have begun by now. They were only 10% finished the design in early 2019, and COVID would've happened regardless.

I could swear they were past 15% when it was cancelled.

From the Globe and Mail link on Jan 19 2019:

Could be in between 10-15%. Considering that the Relief Line was officially cancelled in June.

We're kind of grasping at straws here. Barring political interference, the Relief Line South would've been under construction years before the OL, whose components won't see financing close until 2022 at the earliest. The RLS was planned to be delivered by 2028, while the OL's timeline is a big question mark at this point. The government claims one of their primary motivations for moving forward with the OL was the purported faster timelines. We knew from Day 1 that the faster timelines weren't all that credible, but now it's near certain that the OL will be delivered years after the Relief Line would've.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

RFQ, RFP, and financial close for the Ontario Line have been pushed back.

Drifting Timelines on Metrolinx Projects (Fall 2020 Update) (Revised)

Back in June 2020, I wrote about the gradual drift in the planned dates for various Metrolinx projects as reported by Infrastructure Ontario [IO for short]. See: Drifting Timelines on Metrolinx Pro…

stevemunro.ca

View attachment 271725

We shouldn't gloss over this part of the article either

Is The P3 Model Falling Apart?

Two revisions in the large GO project procurement model involve a change from private sector financing to traditional government borrowing.

This suggests that the market willingness to finance projects on behalf of the government, or at least to do so at rates competitive with direct government borrowing, may be on the wane. That implies that the “P3” model may be coming unglued.

At its heart, this was always seen as an accounting mechanism to shift debt off of the government’s books, and without this shell game, a major argument for P3s could vanish.

With the government potentially having to take on more debt to fund these projects, I fear we'll see scope cutbacks, not just on the OL, but on other major projects as well.

 

[toronto647]

We're kind of grasping at straws here. Barring political interference, the Relief Line South would've been under construction years before the OL, whose components won't see financing close until 2022 at the earliest. The RLS was planned to be delivered by 2028, while the OL's timeline is a big question mark at this point. The government claims one of their primary motivations for moving forward with the OL was the purported faster timelines. We knew from Day 1 that the faster timelines weren't all that credible, but now it's near certain that the OL will be delivered years after the Relief Line would've.

Regardless in the next elections (Spring 2021 likely) the Conservatives will win and there will be no other option besides Ontario Line. At this point lets just stop crying over spilt milk and move on. Lets get shovels in the ground and get a relief line. A relief line is better than no relief line.

 

[Coolstar]

The RLS was planned to be delivered by 2028,

It was to be delivered by 2029. Nevertheless, I'll admit my support for the Ontario Line has been wavering recently but until more info about the line is released, (Platform length, trains, guideway .etc.) then it'll be easier to determine if the Ontario Line was truly a big mistake or a better project than one thinks. In general, give the line a bit more time to prove itself. It would be interesting to see if Del Duca is elected and brings back the Relief Line.

Tory says subway relief line construction could be sped up by two years, open by 2029

Expedited work would require adding an additional $162 million in this year’s TTC capital budget.

www.google.com

Regardless in the next elections (Spring 2021 likely) the Conservatives will win and there will be no other option besides Ontario Line. At this point lets just stop crying over spilt milk and move on. Lets get shovels in the ground and get a relief line. A relief line is better than no relief line.

Yeah I agree. We've been complaining about how the Relief Line is better for more than a year now. (And here's to many more years to come) but it's time to move on and move forward with the Ontario Line for the time being.

 

[syn]

You really ought to know by now that TTC subway stations don't create densification on their own. Runnymede, Jane, Royal York, Ossington, Coxwell, Lansdowne, Pape, Woodbine, Dupont... the list goes on and on.

Serving already-extant needs has a lot of validity on its own -- and the Lawrence/McCowan stop makes a lot of sense here because of the hospital.

That was my point. Exactly why a subway extension makes little sense.

The stations you mention are along a major commercial throughfare, close to stations with significant ridership.

There's plenty of justification for an eastern extension to the subway on Sheppard. In addition to being able to provide a connection at Agincourt GO, the Sheppard corridor is one of the densest areas in the city outside of downtown. The street itself is an enormously busy east-west route. Dozens of apartment buildings, tons of commercial and retail businesses. Not as busy as Finch, sure, but surely busier than Steeles or York Mills/Ellesmere. If "densification" is what gets you out of bed in the morning, there are endless opportunities for that, too.

Not if there's an SSE.

The Sheppard corridor being one of the densest corridors in the city outside of downtown? Is that the reason She

After all, Sheppard is tied with Eglinton for 4th-busiest subway station in this city, and thus one of the largest contributors to the daily crunch.

According to 2018 ridership stats it's not 4th busiest...and for an interchange station the ridership is kind of where you'd expect it.

Sheppard/Yonge is a fairly built up area, but Sheppard itself is rather suburban in nature. It's a long, long way from having the commerical and residential density necessary to justify a subway. Having two subway lines meet here:

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

goo.gl

is a colossal waste of money at this point.

That money should be invested to properly build a full capacity subway line for the OL/DRL.

 

[Adjei]

The Relief Line is dead and it's not coming back. Barring some epic miracle, Ontario Line is what will be built. I don't know if anyone has noticed but the coronavirus has greatly helped Doug Ford. Before it, he was struggling in the polls but since Covid and he has made a big turnaround. I didn't vote for him last and didnt really like him but he has impressed me. For the next 2 to 3 years controlling Covid 19 is what the world will be worried about. Nobody is even talking about Del Duca or Horwarth. People see Doug Ford on TV giving them assurance in these scary times. Even look at the current polling numbers:

"A recent survey by The Angus Reid Institute found 45 per cent of decided voters said they would cast a ballot for the Progressive Conservative party, up from 36 per cent in February.

The NDP were a distant second with 25 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 22 per cent and the Greens at four per cent.

The Premier’s personal approval rating now sits at 66 per cent, according to Angus Reid, up from 31 per cent in February."

Ontario premier says no to early election despite soaring poll numbers

Ontario Premier Doug Ford is rejecting suggestions that his party will call an early election to take advantage of his soaring poll numbers thanks to his government's ongoing pandemic response.

toronto.ctvnews.ca

Del Duca who is being touted here as the saviour of the Relief Line is in a distant third. Barring some miracle in which he is able to make up all that room, I dont' see him or anyone else coming to replace Doug Ford with coronavirus dominating the world for the next two years or even more. Promising to cancel the Ontario Line to bring in the Relief Line is not going to get you any extra votes and it may even cost you votes. Let's move on. The Relief Line is dead.

 

[allengeorge]

Yeah - I think we should accept that the OL plan is what’s in play. I just hope that it’ll happen.