So there are these details from the budget:
View attachment 181064
If the bridge option for crossing the Don was so much better, why wasn't it being considered again?
$11billion sounds about right for a ~14km-15km underground railway with 15 or so stations (at least 4 of which would be interchanges according to the published maps).
For comparison's sake, the second phase of Sydney Metro's 1st line - dubbed City and Southwest, is 15.5km (twin single bore tunnels) with 7 underground stations. The entire project is broken up into PPP packages and the Tunnel and Stations Excavation works package is $2.81 billion (see here:
https://gateway.icn.org.au/project/...southwest-tunnel-and-station-excavation-works ). This is purely civil construction work, (procuring TBMs, running them through the ground, excavating the station pits etc).
Late last year the NSW government announced the winner of the package of work to 'fit-out' the tunnels and stations which is valued at $1.376 billion (see here:
https://www.sydneymetro.info/article/1376-billion-line-wide-contract-awarded ). This contract puts all the services - including track(!) - into the tunnels after the TSE package is complete.
So in total, to simply build the tunnels and stations and all the electrical/signalling systems they require is valued at $4.186 billion (Australian Dollars - $3.99 billion Canadian at current rates).
Given the second phase of Sydney Metro Line 1 is similar tunnel length, but half the stations (2 of the 7 underground stations are interchanges). 1 Interchange - at Central station - is another just under $1billion contract that will build the new metro platforms but also upgrade the entire station at the same time (see here:
https://www.sydneymetro.info/article/955-million-central-walk-sydney-metro-contract-awarded )
There's another package/contract which relates to Over-station development - but it's not clear on total costs / benefits to (the financials of) the rail project - One station north of the Harbour and three south of the harbour will become PPPs - one of them, the other interchange at Martin Place, is well underway at the moment too. There's also a train ops and management contract but the value of that is not available and we know it's going to be the same organisation that's about to start operating phase 1 (this is where the cost to build the train stabling/maintenance facility was sunk if I remember correctly).
As a total back-of-the-envelope calculation, I'd say the Ontario line, if it were a system like Sydney Metro and its packages broken down in a similar way would be:
Tunnel and Station Excavation: ~$4-4.5 billion (double the amount of stations = double the amount of the most costly components of an underground railway).
Tunnel and Station Fit-out: ~$2.5 billion (more stations ti fit out, substations and the like)
50% of that projected total amount seems about right (Syd Metro and the Melb Metro Tunnel project are in the same league in terms of % of total cost). The rest would include building a yard, procuring a fleet and the total ~$11bil might include a portion of opex to run the system over X period (Sydney metro is 15 years).
TL;DR? In short: it passes the pub test/sniff test (IMO
).