Toronto Ontario Line 3 | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx

[diminutive]

The real solution for Don Mills north of Bloor is do nothing. doing something costs way too much and far outweighs the benefits. The DRL only really makes sense south of Bloor.

I doubt the DRL would even makes sense south of Bloor, but I agree.

The real solution for Don Mills/Eglinton, and most of Scarborough and N/East Toronto is some kind of frequent regional rail with fare integration and frequent (~2km) stations. Around Leaside, you could have the Richmond Hill line, a new GO service along the Belleville sub to Malvern and something along the Scarborough hydro corridor.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I doubt the DRL would even makes sense south of Bloor, but I agree.

The real solution for Don Mills/Eglinton, and most of Scarborough and N/East Toronto is some kind of frequent regional rail with fare integration and frequent (~2km) stations. Around Leaside, you could have the Richmond Hill line, a new GO service along the Belleville sub to Malvern and something along the Scarborough hydro corridor.

You know about 90 percent of the rail is privately owned right? You how much is cost to buy up the tracks, the Milton line is cost nearly 2 billion that's going into Halton for example.

 

[diminutive]

The Don Mills bus move 38,000 every day. If we assume that 25% of these trips are during rush hour (7 AM to 9 AM) and that 60% of these trips are 7:00 AM trips, that's 5,700 moved during peak hour. I'm going to take 20% off that number, just to be on the conservative side. And this is assuming that zero new trips will be generated because the subway is open. So 4,560 people in peak hour for the 25 Don Mills. With my highly conservative estimate, the 25 Don Mills will bring the Don Mills Subway only 3,000 short of the 7,500 number you mentioned earlier. I don't think Finch East, SELRT, Sheppard Subway, York Mills and Lawrence East busses will have any trouble filling in that 3,000 gap.

You're ridership estimates are overgenerous, I think. The entire peak-point demand on the Don Mills LRT was to be less than 3k/pph, so it's unreasonable to expect the 25 alone to contribute 3k peak riders. Remember, ECLRT is only supposed to have peak demand of <5k coming Westbound after Bayview, and less than 3k if i remember correctly going Westbound into Don Mills.

You know about 90 percent of the rail is privately owned right? You how much is cost to buy up the tracks, the Milton line is cost nearly 2 billion that's going into Halton for example.

2/3 corridors I listed are publicly owned. Upgrading the Belleville sub to accommodate regional rail until Malvern would not be hugely expensive compared to building a subway at 400m$/km. If you prorated your costs for Halton to Leaside-Malvern, you'd end up with 500m-600m$.

 

[ehlow]

I don't think you can use only Don Mills bus ridership to predict Don Mills subway ridership.

For Finch, Sheppard, York Mills, Lawrence, Eglinton bus/LRT riders coming from the east and going downtown, a Don Mills subway would be significantly more attractive than a Don Mills bus.

Firstly the Don Mills bus ends a Bloor instead of going downtown which the DRL would. A bus rider is much more likely to transfer to a subway stop with a bus bay than get off the bus at a street intersection to transfer to another bus.

Also the obvious things, the Don Mills subway will be much faster for long distances, more comfortable, reliable, traffic-immune, much more frequent etc etc. all the benefits of subways vs bus.

Also by the time we're talking about extending the DRL up to Sheppard, it could be 20 years later and the city's population could be much higher and denser than it is today. I'm just saying it's so far in the future it's though to estimate.

 

[nfitz]

The Don Mills bus move 38,000 every day. If we assume that 25% of these trips are during rush hour (7 AM to 9 AM) and that 60% of these trips are 7:00 AM trips, that's 5,700 moved during peak hour. I'm going to take 20% off that number, just to be on the conservative side. And this is assuming that zero new trips will be generated because the subway is open. So 4,560 people in peak hour for the 25 Don Mills. With my highly conservative estimate, the 25 Don Mills will bring the Don Mills Subway only 3,000 short of the 7,500 number you mentioned earlier. I don't think Finch East, SELRT, Sheppard Subway, York Mills and Lawrence East busses will have any trouble filling in that 3,000 gap.

Your numbers don't make sense. Your forget that many people are heading north, not south. Many trips start and end north of 401. Etc.

Just look at the capacity. Southbound, approaching Pape station, there are 19 buses per hour in the peak hour - www.ttc.ca/Schedule/schedule.jsp?Route=25S&Stop=s.b._on_PAPE_at_MORTIMER. Presumably this is the peak point for the route. This number of buses is set by the current crowding standards. 25 would be 53 people per bus (I always see 38-seaters on that route, not 36-seaters). So assuming full capacity, the current peak 25 ridership is 19×53 = 1,007. Or about 1,000 passengers per hour.

So your "highly conservative" estimate of 4,560 based on total route ridership exceeds capacity by 4.5 times!

Though you can also throw in route 81 (Thorncliffe Park) for another 13 buses (about 700 per hour) and the route 100 (Flemingdon Park) for a further 18 buses (about 950 per hour). Presumably you'd catch some traffic currently heading east on Eglinton as well. 3,000 per hour based solely on existing bus ridership would be reasonable. Which isn't massively off your 4,500 estimate ... which seems to be more serendipitous than correct.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

When did this happen, and when will it come out?

It's part of the Yonge Relief Network Study. We should see something by the end of June.

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&sour...GdvpYGVarC3CPCGIw&sig2=HXL8gwzDIGRmGXla-fqdBA

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Your numbers don't make sense. Your forget that many people are heading north, not south. Many trips start and end north of 401. Etc.

Just look at the capacity. Southbound, approaching Pape station, there are 19 buses per hour in the peak hour - www.ttc.ca/Schedule/schedule.jsp?Route=25S&Stop=s.b._on_PAPE_at_MORTIMER. Presumably this is the peak point for the route. This number of buses is set by the current crowding standards. 25 would be 53 people per bus (I always see 38-seaters on that route, not 36-seaters). So assuming full capacity, the current peak 25 ridership is 19×53 = 1,007. Or about 1,000 passengers per hour.

So your "highly conservative" estimate of 4,560 based on total route ridership exceeds capacity by 4.5 times!

Though you can also throw in route 81 (Thorncliffe Park) for another 13 buses (about 700 per hour) and the route 100 (Flemingdon Park) for a further 18 buses (about 950 per hour). Presumably you'd catch some traffic currently heading east on Eglinton as well. 3,000 per hour based solely on existing bus ridership would be reasonable. Which isn't massively off your 4,500 estimate ... which seems to be more serendipitous than correct.

It is serendipitous

 

[Johnny Au]

I don't think you can use only Don Mills bus ridership to predict Don Mills subway ridership.

For Finch, Sheppard, York Mills, Lawrence, Eglinton bus/LRT riders coming from the east and going downtown, a Don Mills subway would be significantly more attractive than a Don Mills bus.

Firstly the Don Mills bus ends a Bloor instead of going downtown which the DRL would. A bus rider is much more likely to transfer to a subway stop with a bus bay than get off the bus at a street intersection to transfer to another bus.

Also the obvious things, the Don Mills subway will be much faster for long distances, more comfortable, reliable, traffic-immune, much more frequent etc etc. all the benefits of subways vs bus.

Also by the time we're talking about extending the DRL up to Sheppard, it could be 20 years later and the city's population could be much higher and denser than it is today. I'm just saying it's so far in the future it's though to estimate.

The Don Mills bus ends at Danforth, not Bloor, since Pape station is east of the Don River.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

So will this subway be run through King, Queen, or Union Station?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

That hasn't been decided yet. Probably King.

 

[Adjei]

That hasn't been decided yet. Probably King.

Hudak should know, he will start construction within 100 days of being elected.

 

[BurlOak]

So will this subway be run through King, Queen, or Union Station?

I wonder if the plan is to have to not build a DRL, but instead built something like the I-Metro-E. Essentially, a TTC fare on a GO train from Agincourt or Kennedy to Union and back to Dundas West and Kipling or Islington.

I have seen Pape mentioned a few times, but at other times I have seen Scarborough to Etobicoke.

 

[Rainforest]

I wonder if the plan is to have to not build a DRL, but instead built something like the I-Metro-E. Essentially, a TTC fare on a GO train from Agincourt or Kennedy to Union and back to Dundas West and Kipling or Islington.

I have seen Pape mentioned a few times, but at other times I have seen Scarborough to Etobicoke.

Good point. He mentioned an "east-west express subway", which may be pointing to a frequent service in the mainline corridors, rather than a more local Pape - Don Mills DRL subway.

Of course, there may be practical issues with this idea. First is the capacity of Union station; if they do not build a new rail tunnel through downtown, but reuse the existing rail corridor, the capacity of the new line will likely be quite limited.

If they build a new downtown tunnel, then electrification is likely needed.

Then, sufficient capacity of the outer sections is not a given. Particularly, tracks from the Junction to Kipling is part of the CP's main freight corridor. Though, they might use the Weston sub and go to Etobicoke North rather than Kipling. In the east, there will be corridor width issues in Riverdale, as well as around the southern end of Uxbridge sub, and north of Ellesmere. If those bottlenecks are to be resolved by tunneling, the cost will go up.

And finally, eastern "DRL" in the Uxbridge sub willl be quite useful for locals but not very effective in diverting trips from Yonge (too far). DRL in the Don Mills corridor will work better in that sense. Of course, having two branches is event better but again costs much more.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Good point. He mentioned an "east-west express subway", which may be pointing to a frequent service in the mainline corridors, rather than a more local Pape - Don Mills DRL subway.

Of course, there may be practical issues with this idea. First is the capacity of Union station; if they do not build a new rail tunnel through downtown, but reuse the existing rail corridor, the capacity of the new line will likely be quite limited.

If they build a new downtown tunnel, then electrification is likely needed.

Then, sufficient capacity of the outer sections is not a given. Particularly, tracks from the Junction to Kipling is part of the CP's main freight corridor. Though, they might use the Weston sub and go to Etobicoke North rather than Kipling. In the east, there will be corridor width issues in Riverdale, as well as around the southern end of Uxbridge sub, and north of Ellesmere. If those bottlenecks are to be resolved by tunneling, the cost will go up.

And finally, eastern "DRL" in the Uxbridge sub willl be quite useful for locals but not very effective in diverting trips from Yonge (too far). DRL in the Don Mills corridor will work better in that sense. Of course, having two branches is event better but again costs much more.

Sounds like lines crayoned on a napkin.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I wonder if the plan is to have to not build a DRL, but instead built something like the I-Metro-E. Essentially, a TTC fare on a GO train from Agincourt or Kennedy to Union and back to Dundas West and Kipling or Islington.

I have seen Pape mentioned a few times, but at other times I have seen Scarborough to Etobicoke.

Good point. He mentioned an "east-west express subway", which may be pointing to a frequent service in the mainline corridors, rather than a more local Pape - Don Mills DRL subway.

Of course, there may be practical issues with this idea. First is the capacity of Union station; if they do not build a new rail tunnel through downtown, but reuse the existing rail corridor, the capacity of the new line will likely be quite limited.

If they build a new downtown tunnel, then electrification is likely needed.

Then, sufficient capacity of the outer sections is not a given. Particularly, tracks from the Junction to Kipling is part of the CP's main freight corridor. Though, they might use the Weston sub and go to Etobicoke North rather than Kipling. In the east, there will be corridor width issues in Riverdale, as well as around the southern end of Uxbridge sub, and north of Ellesmere. If those bottlenecks are to be resolved by tunneling, the cost will go up.

And finally, eastern "DRL" in the Uxbridge sub willl be quite useful for locals but not very effective in diverting trips from Yonge (too far). DRL in the Don Mills corridor will work better in that sense. Of course, having two branches is event better but again costs much more.

I actually like diminutive's rail plan better then any subway, but with the foresight this region lacks, the subway may be the best option.