TOareaFan
Superstar
Yes, in a three party system, 40% pretty much guarantees a majority. Federally (where most tidings have 4 viable options ad Quebec ridings have 5) it is a number which produces a very large majority.
Yes, in a three party system, 40% pretty much guarantees a majority. Federally (where most tidings have 4 viable options ad Quebec ridings have 5) it is a number which produces a very large majority.
It's not unusual, it's just not representative of what the population actually wants. I'm just saying there's a discrepency between the popular vote and the number of seats that you get, that's all.
nfitz
Superstar
ThreeHundredEight.com has a projection with riding-by-riding breakdown based on recent polling. Currently they are projecting a majority using their methodology, which uses a few months of recent polls (57 seats for the Tories, 32 Liberals, 18 for NDP ... majority is 54). However when they ran their numbers with just the most recent Nanos poll it's a bare Liberal majority with 54 seats, 41 for the Tories, and 12 for the NDP - even though the poll had 42.1% for the Tories and 37.6% for the Liberals.
Their methodology is the best I've seen - and if that's how the popular vote comes in, their results normally stand-up ... a shift in the popular vote after the last polls (which we saw in the recent federal vote, with about a 3% Tory vote increase over recent polling) is tough to predict ...
The campaign is young ... my only point is that the outcome is not certain. And who knows how the whole NDP thing will play out ... I think losing Layton will hurt the party ... but who knows.
Perhaps some of these 905 LRT projects are safe.
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Great page. Yes, to me that is a much more realistic way of seeing how these votes translate into seats. Thanks for sharing that. How often do they update their projections?
EDIT: Nevermind, answered my own question with the fine print, haha: "In September, polls will be weighted on a daily basis but as we are still in a pre-writ period they are being weighted on a monthly basis."
drum118
Superstar
It taken them long enough considering it was supposed to be last summer.
Transportfan
Senior Member
Does this mean construction's starting this year?!
Markster
Senior Member
It means they will update us on the current status of the project, which will probably be strongly focused on securing funding from upper levels of government.
Frankie1984
Active Member
Not yet, last thing quoted by a city official (about a month in a half ago) was that they'll have everything ready to take to Metrolinx by 2014. So, it could be another 3 years before the shovels hit the ground.
Dan416
Senior Member
One of many projects that make more sense than the Sheppard East LRT.
drum118
Superstar
SNC Lavalin was awarded a $15.082 million contract in November to undertake the Final EA, with the City of Mississauga picking up 75% of the cost.
Paleo
Active Member
So let me get this straight...
Hurontario 2031 projections call for 100,000 daily boardings = LRT is a-okay in your books
Sheppard has 50,000 daily boardings now = LRT makes no sense now or tomorrow or even yesterday
doady
Senior Member
So the Sheppard East bus has 50,000 daily boardings now? Thanks for the info.
Yeah, LRT is the right choice for Hurontario. Because, you know, there is no subway line already existing along Hurontario, and the Hurontario LRT would not connect to any subway line anyways. The Hurontario-Main LRT would connect to other major corridors and major nodes, unlike the Sheppard LRT, which would be the only major east-west transit route (bus, streetcar, subway) in the City of Toronto without a connection to either the Yonge subway line or any of the five Centres.
Yeah, LRT is the right choice for Hurontario. Because, you know, there is no subway line already existing along Hurontario, and the Hurontario LRT would not connect to any subway line anyways. The Hurontario-Main LRT would connect to other major corridors and major nodes, unlike the Sheppard LRT, which would be the only major east-west transit route (bus, streetcar, subway) in the City of Toronto without a connection to either the Yonge subway line or any of the five Centres.
Dan416
Senior Member
A subway along Hurontario would be lovely, but it would be overkill on some sections. Actually, LRT is overkill on most of Hurontario, but I'd gladly overbuild and have one continuous transit system along Hurontario than the miscellaneous patchwork of 3 different modes of transit that Sheppard is getting.
So yes, you're damn right Hurontario LRT makes 1,000,000x more sense than the Sheppard East LRT.
Hell, give Mississauga and Brampton that SELRT money, we'd be far more productive with it!
Transportfan
Senior Member
How is it overkill on some sections? Even the section north of the 401 would have many passengers aboard travelling through it.
nfitz
Superstar
The Metrolinx Benefits Case report estimated that even if you constructed full LRT from Port Credit to Brampton with widely spaced stations and an operating speed of 31 to 34 km/hr you'd only have a maximum of 5,500 passengers/hour at the peak point, in 2031.
How isn't subway overkill?