Mississauga Hurontario-Main Line 10 LRT | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx

[TOareaFan]

One of the pages in the BCA literally said the mode share for transit along Hurontario/Main in Brampton would go from 10% to 70% by 2031? Any chance you recall where it said that? Appreciate the perspective.

I haven't (on purpose) talked about these numbers in a while so my memory seems to have failed me a bit in two ways.

1. It was not the BCA I remember seeing those numbers (must have been in the master plan....and I assumed they were carryovers from the BCA)
2. Seems 70% was an unintentional "rounding" in my mind:

But, as you can see, they are showing southbound from Brampton GO going from 8.4% to 71.1.%......Steeles to 407 going from 4.6% to 61.9%.....and those assumptions form part of what feeds into the total ridership assumption projected to 2031.

The actual BCA is a little more modest on its modal share projections.

They see a, roughly, doubling of modal share in the overall corridor (not broken down by segements)....but do point out that the $1.6B expenditure was going to result in a overall (throughout all of Mississauga and Brampton) modal shift of only .4%....which goes to my earlier point about how few people in the region this LRT is going to touch.

 

[Leo_Chan]

This question came up in the Hamilton LRT debate. Here's what a writer said on the Raise the Hammer blog in case it is helpful.

I didn't mean LRT vs BRT operating costs, I meant between BRT and a BRT that was designed to be upgradable to LRT. Of course the construction costs will be higher, but what about operating?

 

[TOareaFan]

This question came up in the Hamilton LRT debate. Here's what a writer said on the Raise the Hammer blog in case it is helpful.

The whole operating cost debate is murky....partly because people want simple answers "is LRT cheaper to operate, yes or no?" the answer really is "Maybe".

Hamilton is an interesting example.....I got dragged into a twitter discussion on this in March 2016....someone who is constantly trying to convince me that my support for BRT as opposed to LRT was always wrong because, you know, LRT is cheaper to operate. So during the debate in Hamilton someone tweeted out a chart from a city of Hamilton publication ( http://www2.hamilton.ca/NR/rdonlyre...48-15253523F527/0/OperatingCostsFactSheet.pdf ) that clearly showed I was wrong and that LRT is always cheaper to operate.

Here was the chart:

What he and all the retweeters failed to do was read the next page of the very same document (I guess there is no need to read if there are fancy tables that prove your point )....if he/they had they would have seen the following paragraph:

So the answer really is "maybe".....now how do those numbers check out in Brampton....isn't that the question? What is the real ridership and what does that mean for operating costs/recoveries?

 

[Allandale25]

I haven't (on purpose) talked about these numbers in a while so my memory seems to have failed me a bit in two ways.
But, as you can see, they are showing southbound from Brampton GO going from 8.4% to 71.1.%......Steeles to 407 going from 4.6% to 61.9%.....and those assumptions form part of what feeds into the total ridership assumption projected to 2031.

The actual BCA is a little more modest on its modal share projections.

Thanks for the information. Just curious what that chart with the green text is from? Is that from the corridor study?

 

[TOareaFan]

Thanks for the information. Just curious what that chart with the green text is from? Is that from the corridor study?

http://www7.mississauga.ca/documents/TW/HurontarioLRT/Hurontario_Master_Plan_Final_LowRes.pdf

 

[Allandale25]

http://www7.mississauga.ca/documents/TW/HurontarioLRT/Hurontario_Master_Plan_Final_LowRes.pdf

Cool, thanks. Had a feeling it was from the corridor study.

 

[muller877]

The whole operating cost debate is murky....partly because people want simple answers "is LRT cheaper to operate, yes or no?" the answer really is "Maybe".

Hamilton is an interesting example.....I got dragged into a twitter discussion on this in March 2016....someone who is constantly trying to convince me that my support for BRT as opposed to LRT was always wrong because, you know, LRT is cheaper to operate. So during the debate in Hamilton someone tweeted out a chart from a city of Hamilton publication ( http://www2.hamilton.ca/NR/rdonlyre...48-15253523F527/0/OperatingCostsFactSheet.pdf ) that clearly showed I was wrong and that LRT is always cheaper to operate.


So the answer really is "maybe".....now how do those numbers check out in Brampton....isn't that the question? What is the real ridership and what does that mean for operating costs/recoveries?

If you buy a car it is obvious that the future costs are cheaper than if you lease. But you have that upfront purchase price.

It's crazy that we don't look at the life cycle costs to run either. This should include capital and operating costs.

 

[TOareaFan]

If you buy a car it is obvious that the future costs are cheaper than if you lease. But you have that upfront purchase price.

It's crazy that we don't look at the life cycle costs to run either. This should include capital and operating costs.

I am not sure I get your analogy.....we are looking at the operating costs....that is what this discussion is about....all that I am pointing out is that it is not a one size fits all answer and LRT is not always cheaper in the long run than BRT....ridership has impact.

What I get from what I have read on the subject is that if you build LRT and never achieve the appropriate level of ridership running underused LRT is more expensive than running the number of buses in a BRT that could handle that ridership....conversely, if you build BRT and try to handle LRT level ridership numbers with that technology then you are also going to incur inappropriately high operating costs.

The scenario, however, where you build LRT and end up with BRT ridership is a bit of a double whammy because you also spent, roughly, double the amount (per km) upfront to build the system.

 

[drum118]

First of all, LRT will beat BRT hands down if LRT achieve its opening day ridership and within 10-15 years on operation cost. As it stands today, only 2 LRT lines in the US built in the last 10 years are not meeting ridership numbers. 3 have surpass their 25 years numbers within 5 years of opening with a few more nearing their 5 years to be added to that list. There is only one BRT in the US that has achieved good numbers and to be replace with an LRT which was to to be built in the first place, but down graded because of funding. None of the other BRT have come close to projected number since opening day.

You must base operating cost over a 30 year life cycle to compare apples to apples, depending on the length of the line, ridership and quality of service. LRT will beat BRT between $90 to $250 million in cost saving that includes replacement cost and maintenance cost. This is assuming both systems are in their own ROW. As soon as you take those systems out of an ROW, everything becomes skew with BRT being ahead, since it doesn't pickup the cost of the roads it runs on while an LRT still has to pay the cost for their tracks regardless.

The cost of building an BRT or LRT is won hands down by BRT, but a few have cost more than an LRT.

To say what system is best to build from day one is based on many things and it starts with the pols. If the pols stay out of the picture, you have a better chance to say which is better at the end of the study. You need to take into consideration from day one what are the ridership numbers to be based on 10, 20 and 30 years time frame, not today number to come up with your operation costs using both BRT and LRT cost. You then add that cost to the capital cost of building the line for each system. At this point you are now comparing apples to apples to say which should be built.

I really have to scratch my head how some LRT lines have gotten built in the US when ridership is less than 5,000 a day, while we can't built any for lines that have more than 25,000. Hurontario is close to 30,000 today and could be more since I haven't done any data numbers for years, but was over 26,000 when I last did.

The US has a database on operation cost between BRT and LRT and LRT is the winner on operation cost.

Ridership plays a large part in quality of service and it can be skew to some to say BRT is better than LRT, but what is the labour cost as well vehicles capital cost to move those riders today or 10 years from now with no increase in ridership???

The one thing thats gets overlook is property value increase that generates more revenue to the city as well increase development along the line. This becomes more an issue for the pols since they are looking for ways to increase the bottom line to do things city wide. Its been stated that an BRT will generate $3-$7 dollars for every dollar invested in the line while an LRT will generate $8 to $15. Even though a LRT may have low numbers than a BRT, it could be generating more income than a BRT to the point the operating cost is a drop in the buck and easy to deal with with the extra income to cover its cost.

You have to look at the big picture, not a small section to say an BRT should be built in place of an LRT.

 

[Allandale25]

The whole operating cost debate is murky....partly because people want simple answers "is LRT cheaper to operate, yes or no?" the answer really is "Maybe".

Hamilton is an interesting example.....I got dragged into a twitter discussion on this in March 2016....someone who is constantly trying to convince me that my support for BRT as opposed to LRT was always wrong because, you know, LRT is cheaper to operate. So during the debate in Hamilton someone tweeted out a chart from a city of Hamilton publication ( http://www2.hamilton.ca/NR/rdonlyre...48-15253523F527/0/OperatingCostsFactSheet.pdf ) that clearly showed I was wrong and that LRT is always cheaper to operate.

The chart is from 2009 and there was this twitter exchange (is this the one you got dragged into) with some newer numbers and discussing what we're covering: https://twitter.com/higgicd/status/853822909449633792

On a separate topic, the first Spring open house is tonight. Hopefully the display boards will be up by tomorrow: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/projectsandprograms/transitexpansionprojects/hurontario_lrt.aspx

 

[drum118]

The chart is from 2009 and there was this twitter exchange (is this the one you got dragged into) with some newer numbers and discussing what we're covering: https://twitter.com/higgicd/status/853822909449633792

On a separate topic, the first Spring open house is tonight. Hopefully the display boards will be up by tomorrow: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/projectsandprograms/transitexpansionprojects/hurontario_lrt.aspx

It will be interesting to see how the line will connect to Hurontario off Rathburn, since the original plan has fail. Also, will they leave the platforms size the same length as plan or adjust it for the Alstom cars.?

Final adjustment before going to market to get it built.

I have received a business case for having a stop added at Elia Ave/Fairwind Dr thats very strong in support of one which I fully agree with. It has been shot down due to travel time and that one bitch of a walk to Eglinton

 

[TOareaFan]

The chart is from 2009 and there was this twitter exchange (is this the one you got dragged into) with some newer numbers and discussing what we're covering: https://twitter.com/higgicd/status/853822909449633792

On a separate topic, the first Spring open house is tonight. Hopefully the display boards will be up by tomorrow: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/projectsandprograms/transitexpansionprojects/hurontario_lrt.aspx

nope that is not the discussion I was involved in.

 

[Allandale25]

Looks like some new renderings have been released for the HuLRT. Probably as part of the community open houses taking place this week.

 

[Allandale25]

Posted today here:

Teams Shortlisted for Hurontario LRT
June 06, 2017
MISSISSAUGA - Infrastructure Ontario (IO) and Metrolinx have shortlisted three teams to design, build, finance, operate and maintain the Hurontario Light Rail Transit (LRT) project.

The three teams were selected based on the criteria identified in a Request for Qualifications process that began in October 2016. Selection criteria included design, construction, maintenance and operational experience, as well as the financial capacity to deliver a project of this size and scope.

The shortlisted teams and their prime team members are:

See the link for the list of the companies.

 

[SaugeenJunction]

Posted today here:



See the link for the list of the companies.

Maybe it's just me but I'm not super familiar with most of those companies. Anyways, glad to see this train rolling down the tracks. And to think, Tim Hudak would have cancelled this wonderful project.....