Toronto Forma | 308m | 84s | Great Gulf | Gehry Partners

My opinion is that tower 2 will likely never get built. High interest rates have destroyed the concept of condo investing. Tens of thousands of units were purchased in 2021 and 2022 at far inflated prices far above resale and there are now billions of dollars in unrealized losses. New condos closing today are looking at very high monthly cash outflows. The resale condo market is weak with inventory ballooning and prices low as investors try to liquidate. The concept of price appreciation is over in the minds of investors. Nothing is selling in preconstruction condos, with sales at 25+ years lows. Yes interest rates will come down, but they will reach more neutral levels, not the near zero rates that funded all these condos.

To build Forma tower 2 will take prices above $2000 per foot, and no investor will be willing to fund that. The days of cheap interest rates is over and investors no longer believe large price appreciation is ahead. They are not paying large premiums over resale ever again. The supply of the future is going to have to be competitively priced, shorter, easy to build buildings. Not extremely expensive supertall vanity projects like this.
 
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paperman said:
My opinion is that tower 2 will likely never get built. High interest rates have destroyed the concept of condo investing. Tens of thousands of units were purchased in 2021 and 2022 at far inflated prices far above resale and there are now billions of dollars in unrealized losses. New condos closing today are looking at very high monthly cash outflows. The resale condo market is weak with inventory ballooning and prices low as investors try to liquidate. The concept of price appreciation is over in the minds of investors. Nothing is selling in preconstruction condos, with sales at 25+ years lows. Yes interest rates will come down, but they will reach more neutral levels, not the near zero rates that funded all these condos.

To build Forma tower 2 will take prices above $2000 per foot, and no investor will be willing to fund that. The days of cheap interest rates is over and investors no longer believe large price appreciation is ahead. They are not paying large premiums over resale ever again. The supply of the future is going to have to be competitively priced, shorter, easy to build buildings. Not extremely expensive supertall vanity projects like this.
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All it takes is a deep recession and the rates will be right back to 2020. One thing I've learned is that predicting the future about rates/housing is impossible. Great Gulf is a reputable and solid builder, and this isn't an ordinary tall tower project. It's going to be iconic. Investors are always more eager to dish out funds for projects like these. Worst case the 2nd tower will be delayed. But it's not going to be cancelled.
 
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paperman said:
My opinion is that tower 2 will likely never get built. High interest rates have destroyed the concept of condo investing. Tens of thousands of units were purchased in 2021 and 2022 at far inflated prices far above resale and there are now billions of dollars in unrealized losses. New condos closing today are looking at very high monthly cash outflows. The resale condo market is weak with inventory ballooning and prices low as investors try to liquidate. The concept of price appreciation is over in the minds of investors. Nothing is selling in preconstruction condos, with sales at 25+ years lows. Yes interest rates will come down, but they will reach more neutral levels, not the near zero rates that funded all these condos.

To build Forma tower 2 will take prices above $2000 per foot, and no investor will be willing to fund that. The days of cheap interest rates is over and investors no longer believe large price appreciation is ahead. They are not paying large premiums over resale ever again. The supply of the future is going to have to be competitively priced, shorter, easy to build buildings. Not extremely expensive supertall vanity projects like this.
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I'll think we will all be better off if the market becomes more end user focused, even if it means less development for a few years.
 
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