Toronto Eglinton Line 5 | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx | Arcadis

[zang]

Notwithstanding the above, the service has generally run at every 5M or so, and has been full in rush hours and moderately busy off-peak.

Even though it only runs a four-car configuration, I’ve not once seen Line 4 with standing room only.

The entire line has a lower daily ridership (38,705) than the 29/929 Dufferin bus (40,000), and still hasn’t come close to matching projections when it was first opened. And ¾ of all the traffic on it is going to Don Mills. Basically, it appears to be servicing Fairview Mall more than locals.

Certainly a subway was more than the density in place in 1988 required, however, the intent was always for the line to generate greater density over time, which, it has, in spades.

Has it?

It was a truncated line, but it was also built on expectations that a subway magically induces density and ridership, which doesn’t always match up with reality. See; Lawrence Heights or Hogg’s Hollow

I’d be very surprised if density in the area matches the projections given in the 1990s, regardless of the condos in the area.

A tram line would be running service every 2 minutes and packed to the gills now.

The 504 King streetcar services 65,000 passengers a day. 38,000 seems trivial in comparison.

 

[ThenWhat]

The TTC has currently budgeted a lifespan of 12 years for their buses (down from the historical 18), and tracks only need to be rebuilt every 20-25 years, provided that they were built correctly in the first place.

It's nice to be an optimist. We need some realists as well.
The most recent example we have is the St Clair streetcar ROW. Opened in stages between 2007 and 2010. Shut down for maintenance from September 2023 to June 2024.

 

[nfitz]

The entire line has a lower daily ridership (38,705) than the 29/929 Dufferin bus (40,000), and still hasn’t come close to matching projections when it was first opened.

I don't recall seeing projections for just Yonge to Don Mills - only Downsview to Scarborough Centre. Do you have a link for that?

The Sheppard ridership was closer to 50,000 a day before Covid. Not quite 10,000 per km.

Bloor Danforth was about 500,000 a day on it's 26 km. Not quite 20,000 per km.

It's not that shabby! Compare to many other subway systems.

The entire Washington DC Metro is over 200 km long, and only has about 560,000 riders a day. About 3,000 per km.

Should it have been surface LRT? Probably. Is it the white elephant some pretend it is - no.

Recall what Sheppard East looked like before the subway. I'd stand at Don Mills and Eglinton changing from the 25 and heading west. And you'd look down the hill, and not only guarantee you'd see a bus coming - but normally see several coming. It was very busy at peak.

 

[zang]

I don't recall seeing projections for just Yonge to Don Mills - only Downsview to Scarborough Centre. Do you have a link for that?

I know I've seen more recent numbers, I just can't find them at the moment. However:

After opening with much fanfare, the Sheppard subway has operated reliably and with good reviews with riders. However, eleven months after the line opened, the TTC came out with a report on the line’s performance which had some disappointing numbers. Initial projections for the line called for 15 million riders, 1 million of which would be new to the TTC. Ridership figures show that, instead, the line has taken 11 million riders, only 800,000 of which are new to the TTC. The TTC blames SARS and a slightly stale economy for the lower-than-expected ridership figures.

The Sheppard Subway - Transit Toronto - Content

I'm assuming at that point, projections were for the truncated line as built.

The Sheppard ridership was closer to 50,000 a day before Covid. Not quite 10,000 per km.

Bloor Danforth was about 500,000 a day on it's 26 km. Not quite 20,000 per km.

It's not that shabby! Compare to many other subway systems.
[…]
Should it have been surface LRT? Probably. Is it the white elephant some pretend it is - no.

Considering it would barely lose less than ¼ of its ridership were the TTC to close all but Don Mills and Yonge-Sheppard Station, I wouldn't even be daring enough to call it a moderate success. It's an express route to a mall. It hasn't created the density/ridership loop that was expected.

Recall what Sheppard East looked like before the subway. I'd stand at Don Mills and Eglinton changing from the 25 and heading west. And you'd look down the hill, and not only guarantee you'd see a bus coming - but normally see several coming. It was very busy at peak.

For sure. Sheppard does double what the buses at the time did. That said, it doesn't mean a subway wasn't overkill.

We knew how to build something with a capacity between buses and subways; the Scarborough RT was originally intended (in the 1970s) to be above ground ROW, chained trams with subway-distance station spacing. They even called it LRT then. That was until the Province forced the TTC to use its UTDC-designed ICTS trains.

To this day, we still continue to believe that "if you built it, they (density) will come" applies to subways. And it just doesn't pan out like that.

A quick phone call with the folks in Montreal's STM might've reminded them that the massive creation of subway to low-density areas that they did for Expo'67, was a money-sucking albatross around their neck only finally paid off a handful of years ago.

 

[Northern Light]

Even though it only runs a four-car configuration, I’ve not once seen Line 4 with standing room only.

I have. You clear don't ride it much.

The entire line has a lower daily ridership (38,705) than the 29/929 Dufferin bus (40,000), and still hasn’t come close to matching projections when it was first opened.

For reasons clearly stated above, this statement is completely and utterly disingenuous and its not a good look on your part.

It was a truncated line, but it was also built on expectations that a subway magically induces density and ridership, which doesn’t always match up with reality. See; Lawrence Heights or Hogg’s Hollow

Line 2 has huge ridership, but relatively little density outside a few nodes, outside the core.........its draw is far-reaching.

The idea that a subway is justified based only on those who can walk to the station is simply rubbish.

I’d be very surprised if density in the area matches the projections given in the 1990s, regardless of the condos in the area.

Go and work it out and get back to us.

Citations please.

The 504 King streetcar services 65,000 passengers a day. 38,000 seems trivial in comparison.

The 504 King, really 2 overlapping routes at this point, is ~13km in length on a consolidated basis............

The current Sheppard subway is 5.4km.

So the former generates 5,000 riders per km

The latter is 6,900 per km.

**********

Chicago's EL system Pink Line does 11,000 daily riders (18km, 22 stations)

Chicago's EL system Brown Line does 34,000 daily riders

Chicago's EL system Orange Line does 18,000 daily riders

Boston's Blue Line does 44,000 daily rides (9km, 12 stations)

London UK, 's Waterloo and City line carries 41,000 daily riders

Rome's C-Line - 41,000 daily riders (26km, 29 stations)

I could list many more

****

We're done now.

 

[nfitz]

After opening with much fanfare, the Sheppard subway has operated reliably and with good reviews with riders. However, eleven months after the line opened, the TTC came out with a report on the line’s performance which had some disappointing numbers. Initial projections for the line called for 15 million riders, 1 million of which would be new to the TTC. Ridership figures show that, instead, the line has taken 11 million riders, only 800,000 of which are new to the TTC. The TTC blames SARS and a slightly stale economy for the lower-than-expected ridership figures.

That's probably for the truncated. But 11 million isn't even coming close to 15 million?

15 million a year would be about 50,000 a week day, using the usual rule of thumb of 300.

Digging into the report that is referenced is interesting - https://web.archive.org/web/2005043...s/gso-comrpt/documents/report/f1906/_conv.htm

That 11-million was based on only the first 5 months of ridership, and is footnoted as being during the SARS outbreak which likely reduced ridership.

And the 15-million is based on 48,000 a week (perhaps the TTC's rule of thumb is 312.5)!

It would be interesting to find what the original year 1 and year 2 Sheppard ridership was. The earliest I can find is 47,700 in the 2009/2010 report.

A quick phone call with the folks in Montreal's STM might've reminded them that the massive creation of subway to low-density areas that they did for Expo'67, was a money-sucking albatross around their neck only finally paid off a handful of years ago.

The original 1966 and 1967 stations are among the most crowded on the Montreal Metro - and that was true when I lived there in the early 1980s as well. Well, other than Ile-Ste-Helene - but Longueil is certainly busy.

 

[zang]

We're done now.

I see.

If you block me again, make it permanent, okay? I'm tired of the righteous indignation when I write something you don't like.

 

[Northern Light]

I see.

If you block me again, make it permanent, okay? I'm tired of the righteous indignation when I write something you don't like.

You're welcome to block me.

I will endeavour to ignore you more, as per your request, however, I will not allow misinformation to go uncorrected.

 

[Northern Light]

As a side note to the above discussion, Sheppard Subway Daily ridership peaked at 50,400 in 2011-2012: (bold is edited for accuracy)

Line 4 Sheppard - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The overall subway network, according to TTC is running at 76% of pre-pandemic ridership.

https://cdn.ttc.ca/-/media/Project/TTC/DevProto/Documents/Home/Transparency-and-accountability/Reports/KPI-Reports/July-2025-Monthly-Metrics-Report.pdf?rev=72260e0300ec423491b3b2ec0dfafbeb&hash=908CB3E85F6DDCFA7CAE34F422310775

This is not broken down by line........

However, in my experience, TTC is running with significant numbers of standees in off-peak periods, and can be jammed during peak.

I would therefore conclude some portion of the low number is the result of insufficient service to support more.

I would also note that T-Thu weeikday ridership is considerably higher than M, F ridership which draws down the weekday average in a misleading way.

With increasing back-to-the office mandates over the next few months, I expect those numbers will spike, as much as the TTC allows by way of providing the requisite service.

 

[zang]

That's probably for the truncated. But 11 million isn't even coming close to 15 million?

Personally, I wouldn't call just slightly under ¾ close. Is a B close to an A+? To each their own I guess.

It would be interesting to find what the original year 1 and year 2 Sheppard ridership was. The earliest I can find is 47,700 in the 2009/2010 report.

I do know I've seen numbers elsewhere. Will look again in the morning.

Then TTC Chair Josh Colle said this in 2015:

"Extending the Sheppard line east to the Scarborough Town Centre or drawing it west to close the subway loop at Downsview appear to make sense. But given the existing Sheppard subway’s performance, Colle says he can’t rationalize pouring more money into a tunnel. The existing four stops are already underperforming. While the rest of the TTC is bursting at the seams, Sheppard’s ridership remains flat.

In its first decade — from its opening in late 2002 to 2011 — it showed gains, from about 10.7 million riders annually to a peak of 15.9 million. Since then, the counts show a slight drop — to 15.1 million last year.

The TTC doesn’t consider that a statistically significant decline. Still, says Colle, you could put those riders in taxis for about the same cost as the $10-plus per ride subsidy he figures Sheppard requires.

The TTC doesn’t plan service based on profitability, although some lines, the King streetcar for example, are clearly more than pulling their weight.

“But when you’re so massively subsidizing an existing subway line — higher order transit that’s supposed to bring all those riders — it does make it more difficult to envision seeing a day when you would be investing more above and beyond that,” he said."

I dunno, when the TTC Chair is saying the line is underperforming, I defer to their knowledge. Higher ridership would justify the cost and lower overall subsidy, right?. I'll also point out the most recent ridership numbers of 38,705/day September 2023 to August 2024 roughly equals 14m a year. And that period was not improved over the 2022 numbers. That means it's slightly declined, while Line 1 and 2 are rising and proportionally closer to their pre-pandemic numbers.

Now, I don't believe that there shouldn't be subsidized transit. Far from it. But there are times when poor choices are made in the name of politics and we end up with something that doesn't fit and only costs us the ability to do more in the future.

 

[zang]

As a side note to the above discussion, Sheppard Subway Daily ridership peaked at 50.4M in 2011-2012:

Thousands, not millions.

 

[T3G]

It's nice to be an optimist. We need some realists as well.

Ha! I've never been called an optimist before.

The most recent example we have is the St Clair streetcar ROW. Opened in stages between 2007 and 2010. Shut down for maintenance from September 2023 to June 2024.

Only a very small portion of the work involved work to the ROW, replacement of worn rails at certain stops. The bulk of the work from the TTC's side was rebuilding of the loop at St. Clair West, which wasn't done when the ROW conversion was on going (a project coordination failure), and overhead work to convert it to be only compatible with pantographs, something that could not have possibly been foreseen in years when we had no pantograph equipped cars in the city. Then there were various third party projects which took advantage of the closure.

512 St. Clair Converts to Bus Operation Until Summer 2024

From September 3, 2023 until summer 2024 (the exact date is not specified), the TTC will operate buses on route 512 St. Clair during several overlapping construction projects. Updated August 28 at …

stevemunro.ca

There are no conclusions to be drawn here as regarding new rail projects.

 

[jmi22]

You think that the Bloor-Danforth or Yonge subways just sprang up overnight?

No, they spent decades as street-running, hyper frequent, local transit routes which were then substituted for the highest capacity form of rapid transit possible. Which is precisely the opposite of what this Russian nesting doll model of transit construction would have us do, inching forward decades at a time.

And before you start with "oh the streetcars have rails thus they're LRT", just don't, we both know that's ridiculous.

Sidenote: I am pleasantly surprised to have stumbled upon the one thing @NorthernLight and I are in agreement on

 

[Rainforest]

Boiling down the building of a BRT in place of a rail rapid transit line by reducing it to buying a can of paint doesn't tell the whole story. Yes, your start up costs will be much lower, but you need more vehicles, and more drivers to operate those vehicles, to provide the same level of capacity that those LRTs would (especially if they are coupled), and you need to replace those buses more often than an LRV, which has a lifespan of 30-40 years without a rebuild, and 50-60 years if it receives a sufficiently comprehensive rebuild.

That's correct of course. But, to add more context: the personnel advantage of LRT only works for several hours per day, not for the whole service day.

Say, during the AM and PM rush, we replace 4 buses that run every 1.5 min with one LRT train that runs every 6 minutes. Same capacity, lower labour cost.

During the late evening and during wekeend mornings, one bus running every 10 min is sufficient to handle the demand. When switching to LRT, we do not replace it with one LRT train every 40 min, for the obvious reasons. We run the LRTs with roughly the same frequency, one every 10 min or so. No labour cost saving during these periods, and we have a slightly higher energy cost to run a bigger vehicle.

The overall balance may still be favorable for the LRT if the peak-period and shoulder-period demand is high enough; but the outcome will vary dependent on the route.

 

[T3G]

No, they spent decades as street-running, hyper frequent, local transit routes which were then substituted for the highest capacity form of rapid transit possible. Which is precisely the opposite of what this Russian nesting doll model of transit construction would have us do, inching forward decades at a time.

You are viewing this through far too inflexible of a lens. NO ONE is saying that inching forward decades at a time is necessary. What I have been arguing all along is that buses are not, and never will be, a replacement for a flexible, scalable intermediate capacity transit solution like LRT, and from certain financial aspects would be a much worse implementation.

And before you bring up the projected population of the new condo projects on Eglinton East decades from now which is supposed to overload the Crosstown, how about we simply don't overload one corridor? This is a problem that is entirely preventable, and if we do nothing about it we have no one to blame but ourselves. Building subways everywhere because we don't have enough imagination to spread the population out throughout the city is like burning down your house because you found a spider in it.

And before you start with "oh the streetcars have rails thus they're LRT", just don't, we both know that's ridiculous.

Ridiculous according to whom? "LRT" is just marketing wank, the vehicles are physically the exact same thing as streetcars, and can be run in various configurations, including coupled and non-coupled, just like streetcars, and in mixed traffic, private rights-of-way and even full grade separation, just like streetcars. Would you like to quantify what actual differences exist between these two modes, other than a desire to distance from the dubious reputation the downtown streetcars have for being slow?

That's correct of course. But, to add more context: the personnel advantage of LRT only works for several hours per day, not for the whole service day.

Say, during the AM and PM rush, we replace 4 buses that run every 1.5 min with one LRT train that runs every 6 minutes. Same capacity, lower labour cost.

During the late evening and during wekeend mornings, one bus running every 10 min is sufficient to handle the demand. When switching to LRT, we do not replace it with one LRT train every 40 min, for the obvious reasons. We run the LRTs with roughly the same frequency, one every 10 min or so. No labour cost saving during these periods, and we have a slightly higher energy cost to run a bigger vehicle.

The overall balance may still be favorable for the LRT if the peak-period and shoulder-period demand is high enough; but the outcome will vary dependent on the route.

Fair, but really, this is the case for all forms of transit, no? We buy enough vehicles to service the peak rush hour frequencies, even though a lot of vehicles may be out of service during the off-peak hours (depending on the service design).