Toronto Crosstown LRT | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx | Arcadis

[JayBeeGooner]

L.A.'s transportation plans are largely based on building LRT and BRT, and just the Wilshire Subway. Building subways in L.A. is really expensive due to the the geology. The Purple line extension is going ahead, but I wouldn't expect many more subway km's to be built in the city. It's far easier and cheaper to build surface LRT with the occasional tunneled section, than subways.

 

[salsa]

I don't see that as a problem. If at all, it is good news the Eglinton corridor becomes a lot denser when people move from the suburbs to somewhere much closer to the core.
As to crowdedness, people will handle it, just like people handle it just fine in Tokyo. Big cities are crowded, so what. Expect less personal space in the train and your back may be forced to press against some else's chest during rush hour, big deal. And if situation really becomes crippling, the government will be forced to make decisions they otherwise would be afraid to.

You are nuts. Is this the kind of quality of life you want to live?

 

[ksun]

L.A.'s transportation plans are largely based on building LRT and BRT, and just the Wilshire Subway. Building subways in L.A. is really expensive due to the the geology. The Purple line extension is going ahead, but I wouldn't expect many more subway km's to be built in the city. It's far easier and cheaper to build surface LRT with the occasional tunneled section, than subways.

Yes, LA's medium to high density across the entire city is ideal for LRTs.

 

[ksun]

You are nuts. Is this the kind of quality of life you want to live?

that's simply typical large city living.
I like crowded subways, because it shows the system is receiving a lot of fare payment and doesn't need to be subsidized as much. Half empty trains at 8:30am worry me since taxes are obviously not used in the right place.

 

[andrewpmk]

Well if you're so certain, let's talk numbers. How many people do you expect to be using the line per hour at the peak point at the peak hour? Where will the peak point be and why? What's your breakdown for where the new riders will be getting on? Where are the new riders coming from – i.e. how many will be coming say from STC, how many will be new users from existing developments, how many will be new to transit but that currently live in the area and how many will be from new developments? How did you come up with those numbers? On a related note, what mode share do you expect transit to get with all these new condos? What leads you to that particular conclusion?

So far you've still been speaking about your gut feelings. You can't pull numbers out of the air like that. Well, I guess you can.. but you shouldn't. Because if we're playing that game I'm going to insist that we install a subway to North Bay – my gut feeling is that it'll be super profitable.

The TTC/Metrolinx came up with their numbers by doing an analysis based on all sort of statistical data. Yes, there are a lot of assumptions built in, but that's how you challenge their numbers – by challenging their individual assumptions. Picking a new number of out the air and accusing the TTC's numbers of being unrealistic (or as you put it - "the inaccurate ridership projections that the Miller administration created") just reenforces that you're not to be taken seriously because you don't know what you're talking about

TL;DR - If you want to challenge ridership projections, bring your own data to the table and explain how you came up with those numbers

The TTC did a lousy job with these projections, they never really revealed where the numbers came from. I always suspect that when the politicians want LRT (e.g. Eglinton) they underestimate future development and when the politicians want subway (Vaughan subway) they rezone an undesirable industrial area at Jane/7 and claim that many tall buildings will be built, but the area is too undesirable to really be very successful. The other possible explanation is that in the case of Finch/Sheppard, the actual ridership really will be low because a slow LRT line with a transfer in the case of Sheppard is unattractive and most people will drive. This doesn't make sense for Eglinton which is as fast as a subway in the underground part.

To guesstimate projections ourselves it probably makes sense to look at Statistics Canada census tract data which shows where existing population lives in Toronto. You can also get statistics about how many jobs and square feet of office space exists in various parts of the GTA. We know that some fraction of the residents will take the LRT in the busiest hour of morning rush hour, which is what determines how overcrowded a line is. If 10000 people move to Don Mills/Eglinton in addition to about 20,000 existing residents and there is no DRL that probably translates into a few thousand more people using the LRT westbound during the peak hour. Others will use the LRT during other times of day, use the LRT eastbound in the morning towards Kennedy (probably not very many), take the bus, walk to one of the nearby office buildings or drive. Given how few parking spaces are planned in this development not many people will drive to work.

 

[andrewpmk]

As for LA the LRT mostly runs in low density areas much lower density that Eglinton. A short underground LRT line is planned through downtown LA to connect three existing LRT lines together, but must be LRT because it is an existing system. The Wilshire subway will go through a very high density area. A lot of the reason LA's LRT ridership is so low is that LA's transit system is not very good so most people drive. Toronto definitely isn't like that. If this condo development at Don Mills/Eglinton has about 1000 parking spaces for about 3000 units so obviously most of its residents will not drive to work.

 

[Tuscani01]

As for LA the LRT mostly runs in low density areas much lower density that Eglinton. A short underground LRT line is planned through downtown LA to connect three existing LRT lines together, but must be LRT because it is an existing system. The Wilshire subway will go through a very high density area. A lot of the reason LA's LRT ridership is so low is that LA's transit system is not very good so most people drive. Toronto definitely isn't like that. If this condo development at Don Mills/Eglinton has about 1000 parking spaces for about 3000 units so obviously most of its residents will not drive to work.

The density/number of units, and parking is nothing but a number out of thin air right now. This project is nothing more than a proposal. Planning will likely ask for more parking spots, and the density will likely decrease since planning wants to preserve employment land in the city. Even without those changes, 3000 units doesn't mean 3000 people will be taking transit at the same time.

 

[andrewpmk]

There are several people living in each unit remember? An average of 3 people per unit seems likely if this development has 3 bedroom units.

You have to guess how many people from this development will use the Eglinton line westbound from 8-9am on weekdays because this is the busiest hour. Others may use the line at other hours, use the line eastbound towards Kennedy in the morning, take bus route 25 or other buses, walk to work or drive. Does 2000 people in the peak hour seem realistic for about 10000 residents? People using the line off peak don't matter because hopefully the line won't be busy during these times.

Keep in mind there are around 20000 existing residents of this area already who will use this line, plus users of bus 25, 54 and 100 transferring. There will be some users of the LRT coming from further east but my guess it will be under capacity westbound east of Don Mills and severely overcrowded west of there. Assume no DRL is built.

Also keep in mind there are several other sites near Don Mills that are mostly parking that could hold thousands more residents if redeveloped as well.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The TTC did a lousy job with these projections, they never really revealed where the numbers came from.

And where are you getting your numbers?

Oh right... you don't have any.

 

[salsa]

that's simply typical large city living.
I like crowded subways, because it shows the system is receiving a lot of fare payment and doesn't need to be subsidized as much. Half empty trains at 8:30am worry me since taxes are obviously not used in the right place.

I don't disagree on your point about half empty trains, which is why I cringe whenever I use the Sheppard line. But being left on the platform is not something to be happy about either. Try asking the average person how much they enjoy their bus and subway commute every day. Worst of all, the city is not building nearly enough transit as it should be, so things will only get worse.

 

[gweed123]

I also think having Eglinton short turn at Laird instead of Don Mills will be a massive headache in the long-term.

Yup, right now that's my biggest issue with the Eglinton LRT proposal as-is. Don Mills is already a planned N-S rapid transit corridor (with the proposed LRT), and it will likely end up being the eventual terminus of the DRL as well. It makes no sense to have the short turn a couple stops short of that. It would be like short-turning half of the SRT trains at Midland.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Surely ML has a justification. They aren't fools.

 

[sixrings]

Yup, right now that's my biggest issue with the Eglinton LRT proposal as-is. Don Mills is already a planned N-S rapid transit corridor (with the proposed LRT), and it will likely end up being the eventual terminus of the DRL as well. It makes no sense to have the short turn a couple stops short of that. It would be like short-turning half of the SRT trains at Midland.

until the line is complete Im going to believe that the leslie stop isn't happening.. I know that evidence is opposite but with the liberals winning the election I think they might reverse there decision again and use another mumbo jumbo excuse...

 

[kd86]

until the line is complete Im going to believe that the leslie stop isn't happening.. I know that evidence is opposite but with the liberals winning the election I think they might reverse there decision again and use another mumbo jumbo excuse...

well let's hope so, because the only people I see using that stop are joggers and dog walker, who may want to use the park.

 

[smallspy]

We are talking about a huge multi-building development that probably will hold 10,000 residents or so, not just 1 small condo development.

It would take every single one of those people onto the LRT in one hour to meet its potential capacity threshold. In one direction.

Do your numbers also include the likelihood of that happening?

Dan
Toronto, Ont.