Given this news, my bet is March 2025 for an opening.
First off, I’m not surprised the software has defects - all software has defects! And integration time is when the most surprising ones show up, so I’m sympathetic.
That said, it (sounds?) like they’re next rolling out a release after 3 months, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they needed a at least another release after that. I would really like to know the cadence of their previous releases, so we could predict how long that would take. At any rate, I doubt it’s faster than a month - so that takes us to July.
Presumably you want to train your operators on as close to a finalized system as possible, so maybe that’s when the TTC starts really training their 20 trainers and 90 operators. I can’t imagine that will take anything under a couple of months - probably 3. By that time you’re already in October.
And then of course - the 1 month bedding-in period, so, November.
I would truly be sketchy about opening the line in winter. Too many unknowns and a high likelihood of something going wrong (like, say, a van going onto the tracks when there’s snow on the ground).
Honestly, the Crosstown is the biggest running joke/frustration in transit construction anyways, so you take your lumps and punt until spring, when there are some sunny days, politicians, can stand in their suits and cut some ribbons, and everyone is just feeling a little more positive about the world.
At least that’s what I’d do.
PS. I’m making the assumption here that the software is the most problematic component, not the construction certificates.