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Toronto, Capital of North America?

The only thing western Canada gets is oil and gas and a natural geographic position well suited to trade with Asia. Central Canada, OTOH, doesn't have those resources and is better suited for trade with the United States and Europe, which by the way aren't doing so well right now. Sure we can learn certain things from cities out west, like with transit or streetscape design. But the good fortune of the west right now is entirely because of happy accidents, not anything they understand that we don't.


I want to disagree here. Unitl recently (~ 3 years ago) Alberta had a much better government. We got stuck with McGuinty. In the most census results the west is bigger then the east minus Ontario. For me that is a problem.
 
And again you are indicating your lack of knowledge regarding the housing bubble in the US. What do you expect people who are desperate to sell due to a life changing event to do. They have to compete with foreclosures. No one is selling their house in the US now because they want to cash in (minus Manhattan, that's a whole different animal). I just bought an investment property in downtown Miami for 1/5th what the previous owner paid in 2003. I've studied the US housing industry long and hard over the last 2 years as i've just purchased 3 properties there. My best friend who moved there pre-crisis just bought a townhome in San Diego in a neighborhood that used to demand almost 1million as an entry price. They paid barely over 400K. The housing market in the US is a buyers dream, if you have cash that is.
If one condo down the block is being foreclosed at 200K you think anyone will even look at your condo if you put it on the market for 400K. The only neighborhoods surving the crash are the high end posh way above 1million.

I agree with your story and I am fully aware of the housing bubble (I read a few books on that topic and econ is my major). Yet the fact is Chicago was cheaper than Toronto even before the word sub-prime crisis was first mentioned. I mentioned my friend bought a 800sf condo in Chicago's gold coast for $230K, back in 2006/07, right at the peak. I visited her a few times and it is a fantastic neighbourhood, safe, quiet and within walking distance to Michigan Ave and Lake Michigan, very close to the loop (feel free to check if you are not familiar with Chicago, kind of like a Rosedale in Toronto but closer to the waterfront) Good luck with that anywhere near downtown Toronto here.

There is something intrinsic that makes Chicago more affordable than Toronto, and I am 100% sure it is not because "Chicago has high crime rate and Toronto is more pleasant".
 
I knew this was gonna happen on this thread. A unknown-to-me expat forumer was going to gleefully spill the beans that he now lives in LA (where else?) and have two pages following glorifying that city on a forum that was supposed to glorify Toronto. Canada cannot win...

Sure it can. LA has great weather and numerous other attractions... But it STILL doesn't have any interesting walkable neighborhoods. 3rd st, silver lake, abbot Kinney... All the supposedly "cool" areas are still built at the scale of the car and people still drive EVERYWHERE. LA is great but participation in the city requires a car. That can be a bummer for people who like the conveniences and thrills of living in a walk able city.
 
Also, the region was hit by the sub-prime crisis but wealthy areas, not as much. The west side of LA, beverly hills, santa monica... All the desirable parts of the city didn't suffer too badly, I understand...
 
Also, the region was hit by the sub-prime crisis but wealthy areas, not as much. The west side of LA, beverly hills, santa monica... All the desirable parts of the city didn't suffer too badly, I understand...

Unfortunately for them, that's untrue. It's just a slower burn, as most homeowners could afford their mortgage payments. WSJ had an article this week about Beverly Hills types deciding to stop their mortgage payments, not because they could not afford them but because their bank made them angry (e.g. refusing to renegotiate since the mortgage was more than 100% of the house value, despite the owners' sterling payment record.)

Something like 9% of American mortgages are not being honoured right now. Link below to a massive three-part series by economist Gary Shilling on the US (including high end) housing market. His non-alarmist conclusion is another 4-5 years of weakness and ~25% price drop to go.

http://www.bloomberg.com/view/bios/gary-shilling/
 
I want to disagree here. Unitl recently (~ 3 years ago) Alberta had a much better government. We got stuck with McGuinty. In the most census results the west is bigger then the east minus Ontario. For me that is a problem.
Well Atlantic Canada has been down in the dumps for decades, so that's not really a surprise. The west is growing faster than the east for the reasons I mentioned earlier, not because their governments are somehow better. Whether McGuinty is running a good government or whether it's better than Alberta's is entirely subjective.
 
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showpost.php?p=5585674&postcount=188

One general comment? People move here. Save money. And they stay or leave. Toronto needs to do more to keep people born here here.

Yes, one comment. All you've referenced is one comment. Do we know that that post is from someone who works at StatsCan?
By the way, I'm not saying that if this was a problem that Toronto should just sit back and do nothing. I just don't think it's a problem. No one has produced any stats on how many people who are born in Calgary, Vancouver, Edmonton, etc, actually stay there. ALL of those cities wouldn't be as big as they are without international immigration...just like Toronto. I never denied that fact.
 
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WSJ had an article this week about Beverly Hills types deciding to stop their mortgage payments, not because they could not afford them but because their bank made them angry (e.g. refusing to renegotiate since the mortgage was more than 100% of the house value, despite the owners' sterling payment record.)

http://www.bloomberg.com/view/bios/gary-shilling/

How funny is that. The bank paid the old amount for them, so that's the amount they owe. how can they "negotiate" just because value declined? Negotiate with the old seller if at all.
If the house value increased by 50%, will they negotiate to pay more since it is more expensive now? the owners' payment record has nothing to do with this. The owner can't just enjoy the upside and let banks bear the downside risks.
 
Well Atlantic Canada has been down in the dumps for decades, so that's not really a surprise. The west is growing faster than the east for the reasons I mentioned earlier, not because their governments are somehow better. Whether McGuinty is running a good government or whether it's better than Alberta's is entirely subjective.
I do feel that taxes play a part, but you are correct ultimately, all subjective. I just wish Ontario was not hurting like this. We are in prime postion more than on the continent.

Yes, one comment. All you've referenced is one comment. Do we know that that post is from someone who works at StatsCan?
By the way, I'm not saying that if this was a problem that Toronto should just sit back and do nothing. I just don't think it's a problem. No one has produced any stats on how many people who are born in Calgary, Vancouver, Edmonton, etc, actually stay there. ALL of those cities wouldn't be as big as they are without international immigration...just like Toronto. I never denied that fact.

Fair enough. Good day.
 
I agree with your story and I am fully aware of the housing bubble (I read a few books on that topic and econ is my major). Yet the fact is Chicago was cheaper than Toronto even before the word sub-prime crisis was first mentioned. I mentioned my friend bought a 800sf condo in Chicago's gold coast for $230K, back in 2006/07, right at the peak. I visited her a few times and it is a fantastic neighbourhood, safe, quiet and within walking distance to Michigan Ave and Lake Michigan, very close to the loop (feel free to check if you are not familiar with Chicago, kind of like a Rosedale in Toronto but closer to the waterfront) Good luck with that anywhere near downtown Toronto here.

Well in 2005 my gf bought her 650sq.ft condo for 195K near Yonge & Carlton. From what I've been told the first condos in Liberty Village and King West were selling at 200/sq.foot.
For the last time, Chicago went through a housing crash. Toronto is going through a housing boom fueled by foreign investors. Apples to oranges comparisons. But what goes up must come down and Toronto's RE will come crashing down. Expect 20% corrections.

Also, you talk about Toronto but neglect the rest of Canada. Good luck finding an 800sq.ft condo in downtown Vancouver or Montreal for 230K. Heck even Ottawa is more expensive then that. You can not compare RE between Canada and the US today. And yes 5 years ago, the prices were more similar.
 
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Well in 2005 my gf bought her 650sq.ft condo for 195K near Yonge & Carlton.


Good luck finding an 800sq.ft condo in downtown Vancouver or Montreal for 230K. Heck even Ottawa is more expensive then that. You can not compare RE between Canada and the US today. And yes 5 years ago, the prices were more similar.

Yep, I think 200k-250k for a 650sf is what should be seen in downtown Toronto. 2 years ago when I was house hunting, there is one condo slightly larger at the same intersection asking for $310K, and was sold for $380K one week later. Even my realtor was shocked how crazy buyers got in the bidding war.

Good to know Toronto was much cheaper 7 years ago (70%?). So housing price has risen by 10% annually, compared with less than 2% inflation. wonder how long it can last. I am particularly worried about Vancouver. Honestly the city is not even that great as many claim it to be. No idea where the hype comes from.
 
Well apparently someone sold a 600sq.ft. condo for 340K in the building. So at that price my gf's condo would be in the 370K range. Almost double the price. Yeah it is ridiculous. But you have to be patient. You'll see the condo market have a huge correction in Toronto and Vancouver. Once the foreign investors leave there will be no demand for 600sq.ft. at over 300K.
If you prefer a more relaxed and calm atmosphere Vancouver is the place for you. However, if you're more of a go getter then Toronto is the place for you.
 
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...ys-view-of-oil-sands-benefits/article2351145/

This is what kkgg7 was talking about. Ontario wants a low dollar to compete.

I believe McGuinty is really full of sh*t.

So he prefers the CAD =0.67USD old days where Canada can manufacture cheap goods? How funny... even at parity, Canadians need to spend 20% more for everything they purchase than American customers. At 0.67, guess how much we will be paying? Why don't Canadians deserve the same purchase power as the Americans?

What's more important, Canada can never compete with low cost countries no matter how low the CAD is. Are we really gonna depreciate our currency to compete with developing countries? Don't pretend there is anything Canada can produce but China can't nowadays.

His green energy plan is the biggest joke I have ever heard for the policy in any jurisdiction and only complete fools out of touch with the world will applaud it. Essentially we should stop using cheaper energy but rely more and more expensive but "green" energy such as solar and wind, which costs 10 times more than traditional energy sources? What matters to him is to personally become some sort of "green energy pioneer" so that when everyone dies, his name will still be remembered, rather than doing any good to Ontario. As good as it sounds, solar and wind energy are too premature to expand on the large scale, because technology hasn't made them affordable yet. Besides, neither source is reliable energy and we have to rely on mother nature for it to work well.

McGuinty always boasts about so many "green jobs" his ridiculous energy policy creates. Anyone will some intelligence should know these jobs are completely bogus because they are based on huge policy subsidies. If the province needs to spend $2b in subsidy in creating 10,000 green jobs, that simply means each job costs a lot more than they supposedly contribute to the economy, so what's the point? I guess the point is to announce in 2020, Ontario consumes 50% of "Renewable energy" on paper, while destroying value for ontarians? He might have just pay each worker $100 a day for sitting on the curb and then declare he has personally created 10,000 jobs in Ontario.

Ontario's electricity price is becoming less and less competitive and we are losing jobs because of this. For a large industrial users, Quebec's electricity price is 40% lower, guess where an energy heavy company will go when deciding to open a large plant? For some industries, energy is the biggest operating cost. He wouldn't chosen this stupid energy plan if he did care about manufacturing.

Canadian dollars are higher only against USD, which is depreciating due to the state of the US economy. If you look at CAD against other major currencies, it is a different story. This again proves that the old "let's produce to the US of A" strategy has already stopped working, yet these people turn a blind eye to it and claims we lose manufacture jobs because CAD is too high! Apparently there is only one other country in this entire world, and if it goes, Canada has to die with it!

CAD got higher because the Canadian economy is stronger vis-a-vis its neighbor, and we should be happy about that because we can buy more stuff with our hard earned money. If we are losing manufacturing jobs, that only means poor countries can make what Canada makes now, why companies choose to make them in expensive Canada? It is more of a matter to reconsider how we grow going forward, whether to abandon this "make for USA" philosophy, which is completely obsolete. US companies will ALWAYS outsource to cheaper countries, and should Canada keep depreciating currency to be "competitive"? It is time to think otherwise and find our own advantage and stop being always at the mercy of fickle American economy and its consumers.
 

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