allabootmatt
Senior Member
Since the results seem pretty set now, I think it's time to start the post-game analysis.
I am reasonably satisfied with the result. I would have preferred a Liberal majority. However, the current situation isn't bad. While the Liberals have, on the whole, been pretty good to Toronto, they've occasionally tended to backslide on commitments, as with the $4Bn Transit City delay that so enraged David Miller. Being propped up by an NDP that has its base in downtown Toronto will make this kind of course change very difficult to pull off.
From a very pragmatic point of view, let's say this mandate lasts two to two-and-a-half years until new elections--I don't think anyone would bet it will run for four, unless the Liberals somehow scrabble together a majority through floor-crossing or by-election wins down the road, both of which are unlikely. By late 2013 or early 2014 the Eglinton underground LRT will be well past the point of no return, at least for the first, central phase. The new streetcars will be entering service in significant numbers. The current, amazing progress on the Waterfront will be even further advanced, with development and infrastructure improvements substantially underway. The Pearson rail link will be almost open. Some significant portion of the promised all-day two-way GO service will be in place, and very hard to remove without huge consequences in the 905.
Perhaps most importantly, if things go the way they appear to be going, Rob Ford will be heading for the door, if not already gone, removing the risk of a tag-team Ford-Hudak wrecking crew for any significant amount of time. This may be wishful thinking to some degree--I don't think it's impossible Ford could salvage his mayoralty and be competitive for re-election--but that seems unlikely.
Two other less Toronto-centric points. The first is that this election shows the Tories will have to be much more centrist and pragmatic to have a shot at winning seats in what I would call the Core 905 of Mississauga, Brampton, Markham etc, let alone in the 416. That's good for anyone who cares about keeping this province on a long-term centrist track.
Second, this election is dramatic evidence of the need for an ongoing discussion about electoral reform. The turnout was abysmal, and Tories have every right to be frustrated that a reasonably close race in terms of the popular vote yielded such a lopsided seat count. I am not saying I necessarily believe our system needs to change, just that it's a conversation we should have again, and which will be much richer if it can be decoupled from the notion of partisan advantage. Previously it was seen as a bit of a left-wing cause, and perhaps that will change.
So all in all, not bad. Certainly the first good electoral news we have had for a while.
I am reasonably satisfied with the result. I would have preferred a Liberal majority. However, the current situation isn't bad. While the Liberals have, on the whole, been pretty good to Toronto, they've occasionally tended to backslide on commitments, as with the $4Bn Transit City delay that so enraged David Miller. Being propped up by an NDP that has its base in downtown Toronto will make this kind of course change very difficult to pull off.
From a very pragmatic point of view, let's say this mandate lasts two to two-and-a-half years until new elections--I don't think anyone would bet it will run for four, unless the Liberals somehow scrabble together a majority through floor-crossing or by-election wins down the road, both of which are unlikely. By late 2013 or early 2014 the Eglinton underground LRT will be well past the point of no return, at least for the first, central phase. The new streetcars will be entering service in significant numbers. The current, amazing progress on the Waterfront will be even further advanced, with development and infrastructure improvements substantially underway. The Pearson rail link will be almost open. Some significant portion of the promised all-day two-way GO service will be in place, and very hard to remove without huge consequences in the 905.
Perhaps most importantly, if things go the way they appear to be going, Rob Ford will be heading for the door, if not already gone, removing the risk of a tag-team Ford-Hudak wrecking crew for any significant amount of time. This may be wishful thinking to some degree--I don't think it's impossible Ford could salvage his mayoralty and be competitive for re-election--but that seems unlikely.
Two other less Toronto-centric points. The first is that this election shows the Tories will have to be much more centrist and pragmatic to have a shot at winning seats in what I would call the Core 905 of Mississauga, Brampton, Markham etc, let alone in the 416. That's good for anyone who cares about keeping this province on a long-term centrist track.
Second, this election is dramatic evidence of the need for an ongoing discussion about electoral reform. The turnout was abysmal, and Tories have every right to be frustrated that a reasonably close race in terms of the popular vote yielded such a lopsided seat count. I am not saying I necessarily believe our system needs to change, just that it's a conversation we should have again, and which will be much richer if it can be decoupled from the notion of partisan advantage. Previously it was seen as a bit of a left-wing cause, and perhaps that will change.
So all in all, not bad. Certainly the first good electoral news we have had for a while.
